What is TrainerRoad AI Doing to Find My FTP?

The updated AI FTP Detection you’re getting puts you around a level 3 threshold level. This will be consistent between detections, and we think this is a good insert point into your overall zone progressions to get faster.

The old AI FTP Detection was predicting the result of a ramp test, then we would make adjustments to your workout levels to try to make things incremental. That means you could end up with an FTP with a threshold level of around 1-8. Although you could still get good workouts, this wasn’t a consistent way to assess FTP from one detection to the next, or to compare it with others.

You’ll see your FTP recalibrated through AI FTP detection today. This doesn’t mean that you’re stronger/weaker than before. This is kind of like buying a new bathroom scale that is more precise. Just because the number changed by +/- 5 lbs doesn’t mean your weight changed.

Range of Changes

Early in the forum TrainerRoad AI beta thread (it was private), there was an idea that the new AI FTP Detection overestimated people’s FTP’s and everyone was getting an increase. We saw a few people post big +10% FTP increases, and people ran with that as fact.

Because we’re recalibrating to about a level 3 threshold workout being able to be completed in the expected zone, if you had an athlete level higher than that, your FTP would increase, and lower than that, your FTP would decrease.

Threshold Level

  • < 3 FTP Decrease
  • 3-4 About the same
  • 4-6 FTP Increase
  • 7+ Large Increase

Workout Performance after new AI FTP Detection

We measure your first workout after an AI FTP Detection, and we see improvements in fail rate and expected outcome with our new AI FTP Detection + TrainerRoad AI vs the old system.

Our failure rate for the “hard” zones is sitting right at 2.0%, which is right within our targeted failure rate (we calibrate for some in the predictions).

That’s a 33% improvement compared to the old AI FTP Detection! :exploding_head: :tada:

The bottom bar shows athletes who used the new AI FTP Detection, then ignored TrainerRoad AI and chose their own workout. Their failure rate is about 2x as high as compared to letting TrainerRoad AI choose it.

And for the expected outcome, we see an increase in performance as well. And interestingly, we see a larger percent improvement in athletes who have a LARGE FTP improvement of +10%.

We’ve seen this in reports, too. During the beta we’ve consistently had feedback of “No way I can/should do these workouts. They are too hard/easy for me”. Then, when the athlete actually tries the workout, it feels perfect!

This is because the AI is just trying to incrementally increase the watts you’re doing. So even though you might have a big FTP bump, the watts you’re doing for your intervals are still similar.

FAQ

I still don’t think this is right….

If you don’t think it is right, I recommend looking at the actual watts being prescribed to you, then finding a recent workout of the same interval length/structure, checking those watts, and comparing.

4×10 @ 250 watts is the same if that’s at 96% FTP or 101% FTP. Watts are really what we’re after. If you still think it’s bad, please get your career, pictures/links of the workouts you’re talking about, and what you rated them, and post them in the forum and ask us. We’ll look at all of them and answer any questions.

I’ve used my old FTP to pace!

Your fitness is a combination of FTP and your athlete level. But if you found you could hold your FTP for X minutes at a level 5 threshold, that will be the same in the new system. You could also self-adjust your FTP down/up until the AI gives you a level 5 if you have a one-time pacing question. That’s a way to get it answered in whatever system you used to use.

What about my TSS?

If you were at really high progression levels, your TSS was probably pretty high. There would be a down adjustment compared to what you’ll get now.

Frankly, I think we’re moving to a post-TSS world with this AI, but if you’d still like to use it, I would just be aware of the recalibration and know it will be more consistent going forward. But remember, even at the same FTP you’re going to get more TSS if you’re at a higher workout level (in general).

Some athlete feedback examples:

“Well, I did my first non-endurance workout with the new beta. The new AI had increased my FTP by 18w (6.1%). I was a bit worried going into it but the AI predicted my RPE very well.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

— — —

“I was one of them with a 12% bump and after some work travel finally had my first hard workout post bump and it was definitely the perfect setup for me. AI guessed hard and was right on the money with it. Excited to see where this is going as I do more workouts.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

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“I was also skeptical about the big difference between my old AI FTP, the new one, and my tested FTP, but I’m two weeks in and so far the workouts have been great, to the point where the FTP I’m questioning now is the one I tested myself.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

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“Yes and just to provide a datapoint on this, the new model reduced my “FTP” by 8% and finally got me back to doing the kind of threshold workouts that make sense.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

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“So far I’m having a great experience with this beta and it’s reinforced something I already knew deep down, which is just how poorly served I’ve been by the previous model. I don’t blame TR, I knew the solution would have been to reduce my FTP manually, I just always chose not to ( easy to do when the previous AI FTP detection just kept saying I was at a certain level, I just kind of went with it, but was never able to get my PL levels up, particularly in Threshold). Being served up short interval over-overs trashed my fitness, my motivation, and just had me avoiding those workouts altogether. Similar for the higher endurance rides and SS rides I’d been doing. (VO2 and Anaerobic were generally fine for me).” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

— — —

“It’s early days, but what I’m experience in the new model is very promising.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

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“The new AI FTP detection increased my FTP from 285 to 306 W. I was pretty skeptical and worried I would fail the new workouts but so far so good. Today I completed a SS 6.8 workout (4 x 13 min at 288W) and rated it 7/10. Prior to that my last SS workout was a SS 5.4 (2 x 20 min at 262W) and I rated that 4/10. It does seem the AI model knew what I could do better than me.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

— — —

“The AI does seem great at nailing what you’re able to handle, so knowing this also helps to be relaxed about seeing upcoming stuff in the Calendar. In OG TR on the fixed plans years ago I’d be terrified when some of the known v hard w/o’s were coming up, but those days seem gladly over – AT was major progress, and the new AI is next level” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

— — —

“Just got served up Katahdin -2 (VO2 float sets) by the AI and it felt perfect.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

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“That’s just some of the feedback. We recommend trying a workout or two at your new FTP and see how it feels. If it is too easy/hard for you, the AI will adjust and lock you in.” — Beta Tester 👩‍💻

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That’s just some of the feedback. We recommend trying a workout or two at your new FTP and see how it feels. If it is too easy/hard for you, the AI will adjust and lock you in.

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