#1. mFTP is based on a rolling 90 day model of power data. It tells you what you’ve done, not what you can do. It’s a black box model based on a sample set of around 250 athletes that Coggan has studied, but the basic premise is that it’s using an inflection point as well as some other magic to derive a FTP at a particular time to exhaustion as well as your ability for anaerobic work capacity at Pmax.
#2. Your model needs valid maximal data in order to be accurate. You’ll notice in the offseason (or if you have taken a few weeks off) your mFTP will either be way off or you won’t be able to hit your numbers. You generally need a short (5-15 second), a medium (2-5 minute), and a long effort (35 minute and up). Use the “Coggan’s Normalized Residuals” chart to find points to hit informally or “Best Times for Informal Testing”.
Once you have a valid model, you can then use Optimized Intervals to target the adaptation that you are looking for:
Intensive FTP for increasing power
Extensive FTP for increasing TTE
I’ll use the Optimized Intervals numbers to tweak my TrainerRoad workouts slightly.
For pacing, you can somewhat use the PDC, but it’s not really great for that since again, the model is descriptive rather than predictive.
PM me with your PDC and your optimized intervals charts and I can help walk you through some other stuff.