After hitting all my workouts for 4 weeks, I had an expected FTP increase of 4%. Which I was very happy with… however , with 4 days to go I did a hard Sunday 3.5 hour group ride. This ride then dropped my predicted FTP gain from 4% to 0.8% in 3 days time.
I’m absolutely gutted and lost with why. All that hard work had amounted to no change in the data. Although I do feel stronger on the bike. Should o delete all outside non structured rides?
If this was a planned outdoor ride, a dropping predicted FTP is currently a bug. Right now the system overestimates FTP predictions for outdoor rides before they happen. As soon as you do them, the “real” predicted value is displayed/calculated.
Was the ride longer or did it have a higher TSS than was planned?
Was your HR normal for a ride of that difficulty? What did you choose for your post-ride survey?
Was the ride not planned? If so, and it was long, you may have just dropped a TSS bomb on your future training, and now TR has to compensate going forward into the future.
There are many threads on this topic, which I would encourage you to read.
My current FTP is 215. May prediction is due in 2 days. This morning the predicted was 229. I just did a 1 hour planned endurance ride. It was an inside ride and I converted it to outside. My new predicted this evening is 220. I get your frustration.
The platform has gone straight downhill since aiftp
I just lost 5 watts off my predicted FTP (that is only 2 days away) because I don’t know, I did the perscribed workout (outside) hit every interval and rated the workout hard (it was predicted to be hard).
It was a 45 min only workout and i rode home easy so i ended up doing 55’ but how does it say i am gonna lose 5 watts? Especially when the prediction date is only 2 days away and i dont even have a workout scheduled until the prediction date
It hates outside rides based on my experience
Hey @DHage 
Can I get approved to share relevant training data from your Calendar?
I can understand the frustration, but I think we may be getting too caught up on the FTP Prediction here than the actual FTP Detection you received :).
@LaFarrapona, if I can get approval for your account as well, what’s happening with your FTP Prediction going down is very different case to what the OP is experiencing and there is a clear explanation.
I wanted to note, that it’s important to keep in mind that is not just one workout changing the prediction, is the accumulation of the entirety of the 28 days. The Prediction is an estimation, and the Detection is the actual number you receive at the with all the training taken into consideration. They are two different things
This is the part I struggle to understand. As mentioned above, my estimation changed 5% on day 26 after completing the day’s workout. Day 26 prediction and day 28 detection are both just estimations of my actual FTP based on almost the same data set. I don’t understand why they are so different.
Has TR done modeling of the accuracy of FTP predictions? Anecdotally, very few here are achieving predicted results.
Not worried (as stated in other threads I’m def hitting power records according to the icon and intervals.icu) but I saw similar about a week ago had a great 1 hour 20 outside unstructured blast. Got some yearly records and a really good normalised power (for me anyways). But ever since then predicted in showing a decrease from 211 to 207.
Hitting workouts well which confuses me about predictions. I know I’m taking a week off but that’s been there for a while so I would expect the drop from last calc point not after being outside.
Feel free to poke my account and roast away.
I started my TrainerRoad journey in February. During first few weeks my predicted FTP fluctuated quite a bit. One day it would say I’d increase by 5% in ten days, then a few days later it would show no change or even a slight decrease. Outdoor rides seemed to confuse it even more, sometimes making it look like my FTP had dropped.
Over time, I’ve realized it makes much more sense to look at FTP on a monthly basis rather than day-to-day or even week-to-week. I can clearly see progress in my workouts, I’m able to hold over-unders and VO2max intervals at slightly higher watts than I could a month ago. The same goes for endurance rides: my heart rate stays in Z2 while the watts are gradually increasing.
At this point, I just ignore day-to-day FTP fluctuations.
Definitely, I was more curious why one hard (yet yearly record setting) ride had such a negative effect, I wouldn’t expect a positive one either. All is expect (and got) would be a red light from TSS.
Hello @Caro.Gomez-Villafane if you have an explanation, sure, I’d love to hear it. Yes you can share but please do not share any location info.
Thank you
Thank you @LaFarrapona
Here is the overview of the new AI FTP Detection since jan 21st:
|291| January 21, 2026|6:44:05 PM|AI FTP Prediction|
|311| February 18, 2026|12:21:10 PM|AI FTP Prediction|
|313| March 18, 2026|12:23:59 PM|AI FTP Prediction|
Your current FTP stands at 306 April 15th.
From Jan 21st to March 18th you’ve had pretty good consistency in keeping with the scheduled interval workouts but then on your last block most of your rides were endurance or unstructured. Not doing structured interval workouts can have a great impact on your FTP as these are the main drivers for FTP gains.
For exmaple:
From Jan 21st to Feb 18th you complete 6 interval structured workouts.
From Feb 18th to March 18th you completed 8 interval structured workouts.
From March 18th to April 15th you completed 4 interval structured workouts and most of your training was unstructured.
Now, per your post workout surveys it looks like the interval workouts have been mostly Hard, with a few Very Hard and the last you did at the FTP of 306, “Maximum Effort”, but we also go to note that you did the workout after strength training so that could have has an impact as well.
Even if your FTP went down, the system will still recommend workouts based on your power data. So we also ought to look at other factors such as the workouts feeling like they are pushing you (your post workout survey response), feeling stronger, recovering faster, etc…
I see you plan is ending on May 3rd and then you manually added workouts after that. I would recommend starting a new plan after the current one ends if the idea is to keep a sustained long training. This will also help with consistency and FTP gains.
Note: not sure what your racing schedule looks like, but you may consider 1-2 rest weeks before starting a new plan.