I had a predicted FTP of between 299-308 ish all month. With 4 workouts to go, yesterday it showed I had FTP prediction of 303, I do my VO2 max work successfully (even a bit more) and FTP prediction then drops to 293 with 3 workouts to go. (I completed one of them today stayed at 293).
I could see that at beginning of a block maybe it would go down thinking I went to hard and would not be able to meet our key workouts. But with only 4 to go and just 2 key workouts having a drop of 10 seemed excessive.
Feel free to look at my calendar and comment away. Just trying to learn. The work outs the last two months have been good so no complaints. Also I give permission to share my calendar or whatever if support looks at this.
Update: I deleted my last two workouts added them back in and my new Predicted AI is 300. Something weird happened.
It is shows the workout and then what I did against the workout out. Likely why it is called Bike is that I did not load the workout into Zwift but I did by my garmin cues.
I have the same bad experience. AI FTP prediction is complete garbage and made my training much worse. I spoke to support already twice, but they keep telling me everything is working fine. After 3 years with TrainerRoad I am actually considering moving away and either getting a coach or just coach myself. I was really hyped about the new update and I am very sad with how poorly it works…
My experience is that even after almost 100% adherence and successful workouts my FTP prediction keeps going down. Initially no matter what I did my FTP prediction was lower after build block then before. What is the point of training then I contacted support and ticket was resolved with moving to balanced training approach. That finally changed my AI FTP prediction from 305w to 317w I think in one build block. I really did my best to finish everything 100%. Almost everything inside on a trainer. And FTP prediction was going down, and down and down. After the block AI FTP detection gave me 303w. I was disappointed and contacted support, maybe I dont understand something. The answer was that at 300w I am 4.0 w/kg athlete and progress is slow, AI prediction is like a wether forecast. Whatever. I train to be faster not to go backwards on FTP. Anyway I kept riding and sticking to the plan as much as I could. This time it was base phase and it was not 100% ideal, but my motivation was gone. Almost the whole time the AI FTP prediction showed I would be at 306w FTP after the block. Upward trend. Good. Just one day before actual AI FTP detection day I did Galena -1. I felt really strong and so I pushed the last 20 minute interval 6% up and did 302w for 20 minutes. Last week of base, doing this tired and in sweetSport workout. Not a max effort. I was happy. AI FTP prediction afterwards? 302w
How this all works is a mystery to me. Worst part about this is that I no longer trust the system to pick the right workout for me. I am now worried about not being at my best in races. Because I trusted TR in previous season and it payed off I still hope this can be improved.
In my last AIFTP update, rating the very last interval workout (the day before the FTP update) Hard vs Very Hard made like a 4? Watt difference in my predicted FTP the following day. That single workout, the day before, impacted it that much based on a rating I was super torn between.
I rated it very hard because I felt the improvement it was suggesting was too optimistic. Based on forum posts, I think probably 90-% of TR users would have called it hard (or even moderate )
Have you seen the descriptions of the levels? They’re really helpful if on doubt. Essentially “hard" is where it should be. Hard work, but not so hard you thought hou might fail.
Yes, I review them pretty frequently as a reminder. The workout I mentioned was pretty square between Hard and Very Hard. Granted, Very Hard means you couldn’t do another interval. I don’t know if I’ve ever done an assigned workout where I couldn’t do another interval if someone put a gun to my head, so I suppose it’s about perspective.
At this point, I don’t think I’ve ever failed a prescribed workout either, so still eagerly awaiting that day. I’ll probably make a celebratory TR thread when I fail my first workout. I keep seeing some of them and thinking that day will come, but I narrowly escape.
I contacted support and ticket was resolved with moving to balanced training approach. That finally changed my AI FTP prediction from 305w to 317w I think in one build block. I really did my best to finish everything 100%. Almost everything inside on a trainer. And FTP prediction was going down, and down and down. After the block AI FTP detection gave me 303w. I was disappointed and contacted support, maybe I dont understand something. The answer was that at 300w I am 4.0 w/kg athlete and progress is slow, AI prediction is like a wether forecast. Whatever. I train to be faster not to go backwards on FTP. Anyway I kept riding and sticking to the plan as much as I could. This time it was base phase and it was not 100% ideal, but my motivation was gone. Almost the whole time the AI FTP prediction showed I would be at 306w FTP after the block. Upward trend. Good. Just one day before actual AI FTP detection day I did Galena -1. I felt really strong and so I pushed the last 20 minute interval 6% up and did 302w for 20 minutes. Last week of base, doing this tired and in sweetSport workout. Not a max effort. I was happy. AI FTP prediction afterwards? 302w 
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