My FTP prediction goes down without any sense. I complete 100% of the structured workouts. Many of them when the weather is good I do them on the street and without fail. I’m at 4.40 w/kg with 304w FTP and I start racing in less than a month. I don’t understand why my prediction goes down when I don’t forgive a workout or fail.
I give my consent for the administrators to watch and share my workouts right here. Thank you very much.
Since you mentioned you train outside, I’m willing to bet you are running into an ongoing bug with the prediction, where outside workouts trigger predictions to tank very quickly.
It’s said to be on the very top of the ToDo list of the devs, but still unresolved for now AFAIK.
For now, best ignore it and check again once the issue is resolved. Also, it only affects predictions, workout selection and actual FTP calculation are working perfectly fine
It looks like your FTP has been really consistent for the past year.
That little dip earlier in the spring was likely due to a reduction in training stimulus.
@martenk is right, though. There is currently a bug that affects athletes who do their workout outside. It causes their FTP Predictions to drop after workouts, which makes it look like their fitness is declining, when that’s not necessarily the case.
The most important thing to consider is whether your workouts feel appropriately hard or not, and based on your recent RPE survey responses, I’d say that you’re in a good place. 
We’re working hard at resolving this bug, so hang in there!
Does this only impact the prediction right after the outdoor ride? I did one on Saturday and Sunday and my ftp prediction stayed the same but just dropped by one after successfully completing an indoor workoutn not sure why. It only dropped by one so not a big deal, just curious if this is the big or just normal behavior
I believe yes, the drop can but doesn’t have to happen after an outdoor ride. What you outlined sounds like something else. Random break, minimal lower watts, …
If you nevertheless suspect it to be one, there’s a new pinned thread in the forum where they are asking folks to provide examples
This bug typically only affects workouts done outside.
If you have any issues that you’re concerned about, let me know, and I’d be happy to take a closer look.
Thanks! It was only one watt so not that concerned was just curious. I use erg mode so hit the power exactly and rated it what the AI predicted with no pauses. Can heart rate impact it at all?
While we do use HR data, it’s not likely that’s what caused the change.
I can look at the backend since you’re curious. Can I share what I find here in this thread?
Go for it, thanks!
It looks to me like this came down to rounding with a 1-watt difference.
It’s possible that this was building since that really hard ride on Saturday.
Regardless, 1 watt is pretty negligible. I know it’s still annoying, but keep in mind that your fitness likely hasn’t really dropped much at all.
Thank you!!! Wasn’t even annoyed more curious. Trainer road has been working out amazing for me the last six months and I’ve made a lot of improvements. Appreciate all the feedback and help you guys provide on the forums too!
