I’m generally pretty happy with the new AI and FTP predictions, when I complete all my inside rides the forecast stays pretty consistent. However after outside rides (with power meter) I’ve seen decreases.
Today I did an outside ride and pretty much inline with the workout, however my FTP prediction for 7 days time dropped by 8 watts. Up to now it’s been very predictable during this block.
Quick look at your calendar and comparing it to the last two weeks ON/OFF vo2 work - the TSS is quite a bit higher, my guess is the extra time at the end and jagged nature of the power overall contributed to the IF and TSS increase. Often it will then predict you will blow up on the subsequent workouts and result in lower training and FTP prediction.
My guess is that if you continue doing well… it will slowly come right back. That seems to happen to me each cycle…. big prediction 4wks out… drops… then rises back after the last workout of cycle! lol
How did it score in the Vo2max and Anaerobic WL actual vs planned?
+1 exactly what happens to me too. Initial prediction is very high (5% or so), slowly drops to 1-2%…then in the last week or so jumps back to 3-4%. Happened every month for 3 months. I’ve learned to basically ignore the prediction until within 2 weeks.
Are you using a different power meter outside vs inside? I am also going to be faced with this soon, but I think I should be able to do some dual recording tonight on trainer to get a adjustment factor to possible plug a coefficient / correction-factor of some sort in the Saris app … can’t recall if I can. It in the past was a good 10w+ different then my power meter pedal (Asioma) . The last couple years I have just been doing power training indoor only with the PowerPedals recording with SarisH3 trainer doing the control with PowerMatch (wish it told you the power offset factor at various powers!). Then time to take pedals off trainer bike and put on my new State AllRoad v2 !!!
For before and after intervals - just need to be mindful of 'smooth and easy’ Use all those gears! Make it a game
Yes I am using different measurement methods, inside is a smart trainer, so measured after the drivetrain and outside is a crank power meter. I’m not measured it but the differance feels like 20w.
You right, I need to get smoother outside, in my defence it was only my 2nd outside workout for 6 months
For ten days, my FTP prediction was to jump 10 watts. The day my FTP was set to change, I had one last VO2 workout; I did 5-10% more than what was prescribed, and I shaved several minutes off each recovery. Rated the workout as “hard”. I got home, and my FTP prediction dropped 5 watts. After this month’s block, I’m slated to gain 4 of the 5 watts back. Go figure.
I am now faced with the issue of outside vs inside power - I have not found a way to adjust either of my power sources (Saris H3 or Assioma Uno). I thought there was a way to have an offset or coefficient for bike to bike adjustments… is this really not a thing after all these years? I get it, people could inflate their power… oh my FTP isn’t right… my meter is wrong… I am going to add 3% to meter… lol
Any way ? in my case its about 10-13w only, not the biggest, but quite steady/consistent (even at high power, which seems weird)… but sure would be nice to have them closer.
FWIW: I have Assioma Duos and a power adjustment factor is available in the Assioma Android phone app. I also have a Saris trainer and I don’t know of an adjustable factor for it.
So I tried another outside ride, V02max, I stuck as closely as possible to the plan, all 15 efforts were within target, the overall ride was only 4mins longer (due to the cooldown) and the IF was the same as planned: 0.89.
End result was a prediction reduction of 2 watts. OK, so not a big problem, however all outside rides so far have now resulted in a reduction of some sort, inside rides have never affected the prediction.
As it’s coming to the summer in the UK now, and the majority of my rides will be outside it would be great to get a comment after the workout as to why the prediction was changed: this will allow me to improve my workout adherance for the future.
It’s the model. TR said the next release will address the estimate of outside rides being optimistic in the prediction. So it is not your workout adherance.
Not sure how this hasn’t been mentioned yet (although it may have and I didn’t see it):
There’s a known bug that planned outdoor rides mess with the predicted FTP. That’s probably the main reason why you are seeing drops after completing outdoor workouts. Right now the system overestimates the gain from doing outdoor rides before you do them, so the predicted FTP always drops after.
Thank you, but I don’t think my issue is the same.
My plan on the calender is 100% inside rides, when I complete the inside rides the prediction is mostly stable. However when I change to outside side (no change in prediction) and then complete the outside ride the prediction always decreases. (regardless of my workout adherance or exceeding)
As it’s coming into summer in the UK, I’m going to be doing more and more outside rides.
Use all those gears! Make it a game 
