I’m about 12 weeks into a training plan. TR predicts my FTP to decrease about 3%, which I assume means by the end of the plan. I did miss one ride last week. Would this be the reason?
It’s impossible to answer without seeing your training plan. Could you post screenshots of your last month or two and the next month?
Here are some screen shots going back to Dec 15 in the attached Word document. I actually started the plan on Nov. 27.
Thanks!
Dave
(Attachment TR Plan.docx is missing)
Trying this again. Here are some screen shots going back to Dec 15 in the attached PDF document. I actually started the plan on Nov. 27.
Thanks!
Dave
(attachments)
TR Plan.pdf (1.37 MB)
The prediction is only for a maximum of 28days in the future - not the end of your training plan.
To me it seems that your current FTP is set too high. You got a 28% increase after your ramp test, which you immediately struggled with. Since then the AI has given you easier and easier workouts to the point that you have a 2.9 WL sweet spot as your next workout. I say take the FTP downgrade and try to start building up again from there.
1 Like
I think the FTP might be OK. It just looks as if TR gave him a new AIFTP Detection and then gave him Madison, a 5.7 Threshold workout which - not surprisingly - was a bit much.
Not sure why that happened …
Madison is only 3.2 - it looks like the OP is routinely going well above power targets on his rides (and then rating them accordingly, which is fine) which I’m not sure is helping the model find the right levels for him.
1 Like
The current FTP is from a ramp test, no?
Seeing that the next scheduled threshold workout is a 1.9 WL workout, expected to be very hard, it at least seems like the AI thinks he’s working too hard.
They had an AIFTP detection two days after the ramp test, if my eyes are working correctly, which is not guaranteed. Prior to the ramp test it looks like FTP was severely underestimated, fwiw.
Ahhh. Good catch. Thank you 
OP: good on you … but calm the **** down on your threshold rides! 
ETA: now, of course, I’m wondering why TR hasn’t upped the difficulty of his future workouts in response to his over-achieving on his past workouts 
Maybe the lesson is to choose a harder alternate rather than just butchering the original workout.
1 Like
Ah, I missed that last AIFTP. Seems like the AI agreed the FTP should be much higher, but wanted to tone it down a bit from the ramp test.
After he butchered the first threshold ride he has only been given threshold rides that are < 2 WL. Even though he over achieve and get credit in the 4s he is still rating them very hard. I suspect the AI doesn’t particularly like if we rate workouts that are supposed to be moderate to hard as very hard, even if we over achieve them.
1 Like
Perhaps, hence my thought that “Maybe the lesson is to choose a harder alternate rather than just butchering the original workout.”
1 Like
Correct. AI adjusted my Ramp Test down from 224 to 216.
Yes. The Madison workout was very hard. It had instructions that included standing intervals which is why you see the spikes in Watts.
On this ride I was trying to following the instructions which included standing drills at certain cadence level. So I was naturally going well over target power.
I signed on to TR in November 2025 and my original FTP (175) was arrived at using Adaptive Training from my past outdoor rides recorded on my Garmin. To me, it felt low. After the Ramp Test, the FTP seem about right. On some rides it may look like I am over-achieving, but I’m really just following instructions. This is all a learning experience.
If you can blast past the recommended watts of an interval workout, I’d never rate it more than hard. You’re rating the given workout prescribed by the model, not all the extra. If you could do it, plus a ton more, IMO, it’s never more than hard.
Are you sprinting? You should be able to adjust resistance to keep power near target while standing.
does your trainer have the ability to do erg mode?
I am pretty sure this is incorrect and you are supposed to rate what you did
2 Likes