TLDR: Manually adjusted FTP up from 290w to 297w on 4/8 and then completed Threshold PL5.4, VO2MAX PL6.2, and SS PL9.2 workouts under the setup. After accepting the detected 290 on 4/23 and took a bonk week between two century rides, AI FTP is predicting 297 watts on 5/6 which doesn’t make any sense to me. I really need some help from TR to look into this. @eddie
The thing is I have been training 2.5 months under 292watts since 2/6 and I felt I have exceeded all the workouts. So I pulled the triggered and manually adjusted it on 4/8 to 297. I felt good about it and complete some high PL workouts. Then realized I still wanna know the predictions so then accepted the 290 detection on 4/23 just to see the prediction. It was predicting something like 310 but I know it won’t happen. Then weather in New England turned nicer so I added two Mt. Wachusett rides (100mile+/-). I do admit adding those two rides messed up my training last week as I had no legs after the first Wawa ride and then tapered for the 5/2 ride - failing and ending a couple workouts early. But on the Wawa climb I sustained 277AP/301NP for 20min (for those who don’t know Wawa, see link: Cycling Wachusett Mountain North ). And note that I did the climb after riding 45miles+/-
In the end I wanted to argue that if the TR FTP is based on training at TH3.0 workouts, then considering I already completed a TH5.4 workout under 297 watts, my TR FTP for the next training cycle should be higher than 297, right? Considering I did 301NP for 20min on a recent ride, at least I can train at that number, isn’t it? Also, if I were to play with the plan and remove the 5/5 workout my FTP prediction would go back to 290. I just feel like the AI thing is not working when mixing indoor/outdoor data.
See my FTP history and recent calendar below for information. Any input is appreciated. Thank you.
I’ll be that guy. This is what happens when you try to fight the system. You’re rating all your workouts easy, and yet you are still getting power records. You also only use stress/motivation when you fail workouts.
This means that the AI has very little to go on when trying to dial in your training. But yes, that being said, your two big outdoor rides clearly indicate that your FTP is set too low.
You failed / quit a sweet spot in the second week.
You had a threshold workout in the 3rd week where power started faltering at the end (yet, still rated moderate)
You did a monster ride that weekend - over 400TSS in one ride! (Which does indicate FTP is probably set too low - but at the same time, you’re failing a good amount of your intervals)
You failed a suprathreshold in the 4th week, and then failed a sweet spot the day after. Then you went out and did another huge outdoor ride the next day instead - this time 327 TSS.
Basically - it looks to me like your outdoor fun rides are sabotaging your intervals, and your first priority should be the intervals, not the long rides. (Which, are monster group / solo rides by the look of it, not weekend endurance/Z2 which is what they should be)
Going out on a limb here and saying you need to cut back the intensity and duration of those weekend rides and focus on your intervals, and work up your total volume and TSS more slowly.
(By the way - you’re in the same area I am, almost all my rides are Boston Metro-West)
Edit - also want to answer post ride surveys accurately and consistently. Do NOT try and game the system…
Thank you for the insights. I just went back and re-rated all my workouts since the new AI (approximately last 4months) and rated them moderate or hard, and now the FTP prediction on 5/6 is at 283 watts. This is driving me nuts. If I could complete cumberland+2 at 297watts FTP (see below), why would I waste time training at 283 watts?
Looking at the training history since the last AI FTP detection, you had basically a week off with one big ride in the middle, then failed both a 1.3 and 2.4 threshold workout.
AI FTP is essentially set as what ftp you can reliably complete a 3.0 threshold workout at.
You could have an amazing vo2 max, an amazing sweet spot ( which it appears you do ) but how the system reports ftp is based on predicted success on the threshold workouts.
The large outdoor rides, and not sticking to indoor structure likely is hurting that specifically, and even if it isn’t, the system isn’t getting the input showing that you can do it.
It has no choice but to lower the prediction to what it thinks you could achieve after these multiple failures.
It might be that you have to give it some time to fix itself. Maybe a stupid question, but did you randomly rate your previous workouts as moderate or hard, or did you rate them as they actually felt?
Also, there might be a bug or something going on with your plan/calendar. When workouts are a part of your plan they are supposed to have a calendar icon in the upper right corner. Your workouts in your last screenshot doesn’t have that. Or are you not following a plan?
I did complete a 5.4TH workout the same week of the vo2max and the ss. Also the PL shown is the rated effort, not the PL of the original workout. But thank you for the insights.
Not randomly. But based on what I can remember. I also looked at the power curves and the now recommended workouts are far below my NP/AP power curves by 10%.
I have my own desired workouts so indeed I didn’t follow a plan but just add workouts that suits my needs.
Yes, then a week and a half later you failed pretty early in a threshold workout and it’s shown as a 1.3 credit for it, dragging what the TR algorithm thinks you can do waaaaay back down.
I mean you’re not following a plan, you are regularly failing workouts at threshold, and then you were regularly mislabeling the perceived efforts on your rides.
It’s pretty clear why it’s not predicting improvement.
As a coach I wouldn’t be either.
Plan the work, work the plan, and get those threshold workout numbers that you succeed in up if you want that number to go up.
If you don’t care about that and want to ad hoc do workouts, that’s ok too. It’s the route I go sometimes myself.
I just don’t expect the algorithm to push the predicted ftp number up if it’s not getting the triggers to actually do so.
Agreed. I struggle balancing between indoor/outdoor rides when I can finally ride outside after 5months of freezing winter in New England. Might be time to just ignore the numbers and ride outside for fun.
I struggle balancing between indoor/outdoor rides when I can finally ride outside after 5months of freezing winter
Might be time to just ignore the numbers and ride outside for fun.
I’m with you there. Looking out my window right now, there are snowflakes in the air.
It sounds like you’ve got some conflicting ambitions at the moment. I’d pick one thing to focus on at a time.
It’s totally cool to have one long ride each week, and that can still be productive if you arrange your schedule in a way that you’re able to recover afterward and still crush those hard structured workouts.
What’s important in terms of getting consistent, accurate workouts prescribed is consistently completing workouts and rating them on how they actually felt in the post-workout surveys.
If they’re too hard or easy at first, we’ll recognize that if you’re honest in your responses, things will adjust quickly. It might take you a workout or two to get things back on track, given your recent training, but you’ll get there with some consistency.
If you’re really enjoying those long rides outside right now, feel free to prioritize them until you’re ready to be really consistent with your structured training. Life is short! Enjoy it how you can!!
Thank you for the insights! With the weather finally warmed up, it’s simply too hard to say no to group rides and not thinking about crushing my PR on some segments that I’ve been craving for. After all, I trained hard with TR during the winter and certainly got a lot faster/stronger. I appreciate your feedback and hope TR can eventually find a better way to consider unstructured outdoor rides towards FTP predictions:)
Being blunt… Because you haven’t gone a week without struggling in a workout?
Just because you can doesn’t mean you should. Take a step back, reduce the intensity today so you can complete tomorrow. I am sure you know this already, but when you struggle through a workout taking an easy day or day off the next day means will help you get through the next one. If you keep trying again and again it’s just digging the hole deeper.
And just an observation from your initial post, but I would try to balance the hard work and recovery a bit better. Even in the latest week you have four intensity days, some back to back. That’s a lot.
And already mentioned but take a rest day following the big TSS endurance days. You’re body will thank you!
Your issue is you’re failing too many workouts. Totally okay if you want to prioritize outside riding, but you also can’t have your cake and eat it too.
You should be able to complete the TR workouts it prescribes you without stopping, cutting it short, dropping power. And if you can’t - rate it as Very Hard or All Out.
You haven’t shown the system you can complete those workouts yet so those workouts are actually showing that your FTP is too high. They’re fighting against your good performance outdoors and you’re giving the system conflicting data.
If you want to ride outside - do it, but put those big outside rides on your calendar, and cut back your intervals to match, and if you are trying to do intervals make sure you’re not trying to do them tired and underrecovered.
