FTP increase - too good to be true?

I just finished a ramp test this week and got a number that is way higher than I expected.

Ten weeks ago I did a ramp test and got an FTP estimate of 228. This week I got a 279, a 22% increase!

The ten weeks consisted of mostly sweetspot, but also four practice crits and a short build and specialty. I’ve improved my fueling a lot since then, before, during and after.

I knew my ftp would be up quite a bit since I’ve been hitting tons of PR’s for the last couple of weeks, but I was hoping for something like 245-250.

Also worth noting is that my legs were FRESH for this test after a well deserved recovery week, and I was super excited and motivated for the test.

The latest ramp test numbers completely dominates my power curve, basically covering everything from 2 minutes to 10 minutes with all-time PR’s.

Is it possible to test way too high on the ramp test? Could I have had the perfect ride that does not reflect my actual form? How can I verify if this is my actual number.

Or should I just celebrate, train with the new number and see what happens?

1 Like

How much training had you been doing before the last ramp test? Had you ever done a ramp test before? How many years have you been training? There is a million questions to ask to arrive at an answer.
For someone who has never done a ramp test before its easy to give out when it hurts, but once you start repeating it there is some familiarity to it. You know what to expect so you might be able to push higher.
If the first one was untrained getting severals weeks worth of training is big.
Did you use the same power meter?
I could keep going on but if things were calibrated and all set up roll with the new FTP number. Just know that once adjusted workouts will feel a lot harder but give you the same TSS score so if it overshot your FTP you will be undershooting the TSS score and running yourself down more.

Well done on the increase and the training.

Quick question, are the power number from a smart trainer, power meter, or TR estimation on a Dumb trainer?

Ooooooh. Didn’t think about this but the two tests were done with different power meters… The first one with PowerTap pedal, the second with Assiomo Duo. This could account for some difference, but obviously not that much.

I’ve been riding with structured indoor training for about a year, but the last three months have by far been the most consistent. I came off the couch with an initial ftp of 189 based on a test by a competing training company. For about 6 months it was between 207 and 228.

I should also mention that I raced at a high level as a Junior and young adult, but that was 30 years ago. I do wonder if my body is all of a sudden “remembering” what it can do and leapfrogging ahead to that. Don’t know if that’s a “thing”, but I wonder if there is a connection.

I would say your increase is perfectly possible, combine a few factors:

  1. undertested a little first time
  2. different pms
  3. adapted well to the training.

I would stick with the latest test numbers and see how you go.


Congrats with your new results! I agreed with Gary that this is very possible. Please come back to share with us after maybe another 10 weeks of training?

I believe that it is and they guys discussed something very similar on a podcast in late 2019.


Sounds like a reason to celebrate…keep the number and start your next training phase - it will soon be obvious if the number is set to high - and if it is correct lowering will make your training ineffective :grinning:

Congratulations on your results!

With such an impressive FTP bump you might struggle to keep up with your next phase.
In the last few weeks of your training you miss the targeted zone. I mean, when doing sweet spot… You where actually doing Tempo… above threshold probably sweet spot… And so on.

This doesn’t take any merit to your result. I’m just wondering if your overall fitness level sustains that FTP.

When I get a bump bigger than 10 Watts I do some soft transition to the new FTP. It helps me to stick with the plan 100% with no failures.

Enjoy your new FTP!

You could take an 8 minute test if you REALLY want to double check your new ftp.

A couple of questions, but first congrats! It sounds like you earned your result 100%!

  1. Were the PT pedals dual or single sided
  2. Have you checked checked your L/R balance with the Assiomas?

The above could explain some discrepancy if your PT pedals were single sided and were doubling a less dominant leg.

Just a comment from experience, a good check to see if you over tested will be your first Over/Under workout. The under portion should feel like slight recovery and give the legs the feeling you are ready for each over interval. Toward the end of each set, particularity long ones, that feeling of ‘recovery’ will likely almost disappear, but you should be able to finish the workout.

I have a similar situation with the difference being between two trainers.

Last year I ended up at a 263 using a TACX Vortex. Over the summer I picked up a STAC Halcyon. When I picked up training again in mid-fall on the new trainer I tested out at 201, disappointing but plausible. After SSBI, I tested again at 201, curious but there were several weeks between the test and when I picked up the plan. Moved onto SSBII.

I moved significantly last year and figured I should be at least get in the same ballpark since I am following the same plan, eating and resting better etc but not making progress. I put the bike back on the Vortex and ramp test at the end of SSBII - 268! and I bailed before total exhaustion, 33% increase in one jump.

The dilemma is, which trainer is accurate? I don’t have a power meter to check either. I’m going to ramp test now on the Halcyon to see where I end up. I have a feeling that the difference is in the inertia of the wheel between the two. There is more of a noticeable difference in erg mode by pedaling faster with the Vortex than the Halcyon since the Halcyon needs a lot of wheel speed so you keep it in the highest gear all the time in erg mode.