Could you please help me estimate my ftp

Hello, I am a 18 years old triathlete and 72kg at the moment.
Since my last ftp test was almost a year ago i have difficulty estimating what i should be aiming for in my upcoming test. My last test was 350 watts on 20 minutes but since then I improved quite a bit.
I can list some of recent workouts which were all done under a pretty high load and therefore i was a bit pre-fatigued.
3x4min(330) straight into 16min(280) with 5min rest + 2x6x30/30(400/230)->first block pretty easy but the 30/30 were hard
4x8min(4min rec) 300 watts at 50rpm was a not too easy bcs it was indoors
5x3min(2min rec)410 watts, last one at 440 felt good and the intervals had a np of 370(23min) together
6x2min(3min rec)420 watts, felt fatigued from other training
3x6x30/30 first block 450/280 second and third 510/280, the last two blocks were 382np(17min)
I dont know if the normalized power is overcalculating the effort?
2x30min 280 watts easy session
5x8min 300 watts 50rpm indoor
2x30min with surges (310 and 320) very hot indoors
3:15 ride with 2x8min 320 watts 50rpm at the start and 3x8min 340 50rpm at the end(indoor) which gave 260 np for whole ride
6x6min 330 60rpm (4min rec) hot bcs indoors
1 hour block with 10s sprints every 5min 320 watts, which was indoors and felt very easy except the sprints
I can do more watts outdoors, is it possible to estimate a power output for 20min? Or are there any indicator workouts which i could do?

Why not just do a 20min time trial? However do you want to know 20 min power OR have an estimate of FTP? If later, then ramp test gets most people pretty close and only takes 20 odd minutes. If want (in my view) a better estimate of FTP then do a longer 40+ minute test


If you are just after an estimate…

Are you using Trainerroad? If so, just do a ramp test. Make sure to set your ftp to a good guess of what your ftp is (ie 350W, if you still thank thats close) before the test, otherwise it will take a long time! (TR’s standard estimate is about 200W).

If you don’t use TR, do a ramp test on zwift, or just do a 20 min test on the road. If you do 20mins on the road, usually you’d estimate your ftp 5% lower than your 20min power.

All those workout you listed have shorter intervals, or surges in them, which makes it hard to estimate a steady-state effort at FTP, so I wouldn’t use them for it.

Alternatively, if your data is on strava or garmin connect, you could look at, and see what your estimated FTP is.

Remember though that all estimates are exactly that, just estimates - what you can do in a race depends on other factors too.

Is it confirmation bias or recently I see a lot of people with over 350 FTP around 5 w/kg?:wink:


Flipping 'eck! If you have had time to do all those different workouts you should have found time to knock out a decent test for you to estimate your FTP.

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Just to 2nd this (shameless plug, it’s my software) you can go do a 20m TT and if you have legs at the end just keep going. You will get a higher eFTP number for a longer effort at the same power. Likewise if you go out too hot and blow up at 17 mins you will still get a valid eFTP and won’t have wasted the effort.

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Thanks guys, yeah im doing a 20min test but i absolutely have no idea what to aim for which is my problem

My 2c: Set out at 105% of your last FTP. Start ramping the effort level after 10-15 mins depending how easy it feels.

Do a 5 minute all-out clearing effort beforehand and recover for say 5 mins. Take 95% of your 20 min result.

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