So coming off the road racing season and a few cross races. I’ll be starting with a high volume plan in November. This is only my second year with actual training.
Last years training took me from 245 to 270 and that number has stayed consistent since I stopped with trainer sessions in the spring.
I would love to hit that magical 300 but is 30 points too much to ask after such a big increase last year?
I mean, “it depends”?
I’ve gotten a 2% increase in FTP after every 6 week block. If I theoretically do 6 week blocks until spring (3/21 for simplicity’s sake), that’s just short of 4 blocks of training. Given 2% every block, that puts me at an 8.69% gain over my starting FTP.
If you’re seeing similar gains during your blocks, you should be at around 295 by the spring. Add another block in (because, wow, who starts riding outside on the equinox, it’s still cold as heck out there) and you should see the magical 300.
I guess the question is, what sort of increase are you seeing after each training block?
The answer to questions like this is always “it depends.” But assuming you don’t weigh 50 kg, and assuming you really only have 1-2 years of dedicated training behind you, then 30 W is not a goal I would immediately discard as unreasonable. You’re looking at about 12% improvement, which is certainly substantial, but not uncommon, particularly if you haven’t been at it for many years. So by all means chase it without fearing you’re setting yourself up for failure; you might, but you might not.
I hope so. I’m starting my first year of TR and have a goal of going from 205 based on 20 min test to 250 by the end of May. Shaking out equipment and bike set-up today with Beech as a first ride. First Ramp test scheduled for 28 Oct then it’s off to the races!
I’m in a similar spot. I gained a lot in my 1st year with TR (230* >> 274) and also want to hit 300 (~4w/kg) for next summer. Obviously progress will slow down , but I’m hopeful that all my “easy gains” aren’t behind me.
Good luck!
This is dependant on so many things. Age, weight, physical potential, slow twitch, fast twitch, training plan, recovery etc. But to answer your question simplistically, yes it is possible. I went from 256 to 297 in 18 months (whilst dropping weight from 82 to 71kg *flex) but the key is making sure training is specific and valuable, not junk miles.
Related thread with good info to review:
I did 24W from 29th august till 28th September. (245 to 269)… UNSTRUCTURED. (And now I’m structured)
And It’s not that I wasn’t riding in August, or July or even previous.
It can definitely be done.
Maybe I’m dreaming but I want to hit 300W before January. And I was at 200 in May. (269W last time I tested)
My 20 minute in October of 2018 was 263
My Ramp test on 1/1/19 was 268
My Ramp test on 3/27/19 was 290
My 20 minute in October of 2019 is 309
I have not done a ramp test since late March but I feel stronger after a full summer of riding than I did in the Spring, and I felt pretty awesome in the spring. Re-test yourself, I would think you’ve gone past your Spring FTP of 270 at this point
@jonnyhfx not possible for everybody but looking at your TR career you could do it.
You’d have to commit to the workouts AND the recovery. But you could do it, for sure. No goofy ideas like, ‘Oh, I’ll try to drop 5lbs at the same time.’ or ‘One weekend in Vegas won’t hurt anything.’ Eat right, train right, recover right. Go for it.
Not to sound like a broken record, been riding consistently for 3 years but first time doing structured training decided to go straight into SSB high volume plan. FTP 275 hoping to hit 300 by the end of March, with 4.6W/KG at 44yrs old.
High volume is a mistake for probably 99% of people who are in their first year of structured training. Think quality, not quantity
My average TSS over the last 6 months has been around 600. 4 weeks into the training finding it’s getting easier been adding extra ride in a week.
Hah, no kidding. My goal is to hit mid volume my second season of structured training coming up…
My weekly TSS has been about the same but just based on my experience from last year starting mid volume and burning out about 2 weeks in, I don’t think HV is a good choice for someones first year doing structure. Unless you have a strong and extensive cycling background, maybe its different. For me, it was my 3rd year riding at all, but I made some big gains even doing LV + 3hrs of Z2 rides per week
Same here , went from 229 to 276 in a year I hope to hit 300 after the wintertime 
You increased your FTP by roughly 10% last year. Given the variables you describe another 10% doesn’t seem like much of a stretch at all. You might even be able to get another 10% gain the following year.
I’ve always wondered how to look at other people’s career? Mine is set to public so feel free to creep my weak stats.
Me too
There is no hard and fast rule here. I managed to increase my FTP from 277 W to 309 W after mid-volume SSB1+2. However, I can already tell that the next 30 W will be much harder to come by. Those near FTP efforts during SSB1 felt really easy (since my FTP was increasing and effectively, I was doing them at a lower level). The closer you get to your theoretical max, the harder you have to work for those gains.
But there is no hard-and-fast rule how quickly one individual will respond to training. Also, you didn’t mention your weight, so depending on how many kilos you have left to shed, you could also increase your specific power (W/kg) while keeping absolute power (your FTP) relatively stable.
Personally, I would try and avoid setting yourself goals that you can’t influence. I don’t think it is smart to set myself the goal to e. g. increase my FTP to 340 W by this time next year. What I can do, though, are things like “complete this training plan”, “invest time in improving my bike handling”, “race my first crit” or “shed 2 kg”. These are all things under my control.
Also, I would caution you to do a high volume plan: as the guys emphasize time and again on the TR podcast, consistency trumps volume. And you may not know how your body reacts to the increase in training volume.