The old AIFTP predicted the outcome of a ramp test.
People can over-perform on ramp tests. Ramp test results don’t always give the best FTP to train at.
What makes you think the result of a ramp test gives you either:
An accurate estimate of your actual FTP; or
A good number to use to prescribe workouts?
Thought experiment: Do you trust it enough to do an open-ended threshold interval at that number and see if you can hold it for 40 minutes or more? I know I wouldn’t, especially if I’d done 3 weeks of 30/30s to prep for the test.
Pretty spot on confirmation of the old model. Which then would lead one to think that they know what they are doing with the new model.
Been confused since trying the beta, as did sweet spot 3x20 at the new ftp few weeks prior, and 4x15 a week or so later. Posted the screens up in the beta thread. Subscription run out thinking of rejoining but I’m not sure. My ftp always felt about right (TR AI FTP figures), and if I do a 10 mile TT at this new ftp I’ll be going 20 watts slower. Guess I ignore the 105% I follow and go 110%. And ignore training zone colours from now on the Wahoo, as the zones are different.
Can’t get my head round it.
exactly! OP is looking at the glass half empty. Accept the new FTP, and watch your PL’s soar. trust me, it will improve your cycling, and be alot of fun.
In addition, I might be wrong, but oftentimes higher level Tempo workouts are at the same power percentages than lower level Sweet Spot workouts. Higher Level Sweet Spot workouts are similar to Lower level Threshold workouts.
So take the lower FTP, allow PL’s to climb. your workouts will be the same intensities that you are used to, but will be tagged a different power zone.
As always, hope this makes sense.
I see what you’re saying. I just can’t accept that my ftp is lower than it was before 6 years of structured training and racing competitively. 
But does it matter? If TR made you faster before, it will make you faster again. If you like the Ramp Test as a baseline test, keep doing it and you should see it increase.
dropping someone’s ftp inside of 300 watts deserves jail time without parole. hard labor, and broth for food… once a day.
DAAAAYUUUM!!
Simply because that’s how we have always done it. Maybe I’m just a stubborn old man who resists change. Lol. And just for the record, I’m not trying to say it’s wrong or that the new version isn’t better. Just trying to understand.
Give it a try. For reference, mine went from 294 to 272 BUT i can tell you my workouts felt A LOT better AND have been more encouraged by my recent training. The new probability scores have been better at setting expectations of how the efforts should feel.
While it’s a bit of an ego hit/demoralizing to see FTP go down (I get it), the new system is putting you in a better zone to progress.
My FTP was 216 after last AI update before the new launch. After the launch it gave me 203. While I was disappointed I was planned on giving it a go. Now today it predicts after 18 workouts 182.
Now what AI? I’ve been a TR user for 12 years. Im 56 and I realize the age and the inconsistency of my recent training. But this seems off.
If your training approach isn’t set to Balanced, change it to Balanced and see what happens to your prediction.
If that doesn’t fix things, maybe post your last 4 weeks and next 4 weeks from your calendar.
Hang on, lets not chnage history, this forum for the last 1 or 2 years has been telling us that, ramp tests are rubbish and that AIFTP produced better results, the TR video about sites it being 45% less likely to underestime your FTP, I don’t think anybody in this forum has said this beofre
Nate mentioned it in the beta thread - first I’d heard of it either to be fair.
This.
I’ve apparently gone from:
229w AI FTP 28/12/25
222w new AI FTP 22/01/26
194w predicted FTP 23/01/26 
That’s lower than I was 2 years ago. All the work apparently just gone overnight.
I just don’t trust trainer road anymore.
Although I suppose I should actually thank the team, as this has given me the push I needed to cancel my subscription and spend my money with European companies instead.
I gotta ask, with no malice, but ignoring the sadness of the number decreasing have you actually tried using the workouts set? I’d have thought giving it a couple weeks to see how the workouts feel would be wise, unless of course there’s a feature elsewhere you specifically want. This covers a lot of the comments but you were the most recent so not picking you out btw.
I was one of the people with a drop (218w to 209w beta and now 210w on GA) and was a bit annoyed it was the lowest in a couple years, but all the v02 and threshold workouts have been spot on since.
It hasn’t though, has it? The measure may have changed, but your abilities are the same as they were yesterday.
FTP is not a high score.
Provide images of your calendar both before and the future. That typically can help troubleshoot.