TrainerRoad AI and AI FTP Detection

I’ve mentioned this in a few threads, but it deserves its own post.

The new AI doesn’t actually know anything about FTP or workout levels.

It only sees raw power and heart rate, then figures out the next best wattage for you. After that, we translate those watts back into FTP and workout levels so they’re easy for athletes to understand and use.

We did consider dropping FTP entirely and making TrainerRoad a pure watt-based app, but that felt like too big of a mental model shift right now.

Here’s the important part:

When you get your first AI FTP Detection or AI FTP Prediction, your FTP might be different from what you’re used to. But the actual wattage of your workouts will be similar and will continue to progress normally. You should not see a massive, sudden jump in workout difficulty.

What we’re doing is finding the right watts for you first, then adjusting FTP so your progression levels land in the right place and you can continue progressing.

Example:

An athlete goes from 330 → 351 FTP.

They already have high progression levels:

  • Sweet Spot: 7.9

  • VO2 Max: 6.4

They’re worried the AI won’t be able to raise their FTP given the limited time they have to train.

Here’s what they’ve recently completed without issues:

  • 3x22 @ 310 W with 3:30 recoveries

  • 5x5 @ 356 W with 4:30 recoveries, plus extended endurance afterward

With a new FTP of 351, their first threshold workout would look something like:

  • 3x10 @ 333 W with 5:00 recoveries

Even though the FTP change looks big, the actual wattage progression is still incremental and appropriate based on their progression levels.

Here’s the cool part:
What I see on their calendar is that they’re essentially maxing out what they can do within their available training time at an FTP of 330. That’s what’s driving the concern.

By raising FTP to 351, we create room to keep progressing at the right wattages instead of forcing increasingly dense workouts into limited time.

And that’s how you keep progressing and GET FASTER!

Here’s a forum-only secret: If you don’t like where you start off and want higher PLs, lower your FTP a bit. If you lower it too much and we can’t give you good workouts, we’ll let you know.

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@Nate_Pearson This is a common problem. You have a better model; dropping the concept of FTP, but the general cycling world understands FTP not performance (getting faster). If you suddenly drop a popular concept, you cause confusion along with potential customers not signing up.

Personally, it has been a mental journey to think along the lines of getter faster (performance) versus chasing FTP. Many variables involved in performance.

Thanks Nate for the company’s hard work. Looking forward to the launch!!!

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In a different thread, you mentioned possibly including a page with stats like 20 and 60 minute power. I think this would be a phenomenal addition, making it clear that “TR FTP” is a training number, not your “60 minute power estimate”. The confusion/debate over that topic is real and the possibility of this new release significantly raising your FTP on launch will only make that more pronounced.

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I get the logic of dropping FTP as a metric - but many of us like “chasing and achieving a number”. Maybe there is room for some other way of doing this - even if it was a composite number based on our capabilities at different levels.

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Long course tri target powers are still generally based off IF and TSS which are vague extapolations, I’d much rather have absolute targets, eg hold 200W for 5hrs to still have the energy to run a marathon. Percentage of hour power would still be vague, but TRs knowledge of your variability outside and ability to hold consistent power for indoor long rides could be a game changer.

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It’s not just chasing the number but also bragging. FTP - however accurate - provides a means of comparison and optional s*** talking with mates. If TR doesn’t provide it, it may be zwift, Strava, Intervals.icu, … but in the current world cycling world, FTP is “relevant”

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Great post Nate. Thanks, this saved me from some of my early hand wringing during the beta lol

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Genuinely one of the most exciting changes imo. Always got a bit annoyed with intervals set as a % of ftp (especially for stuff >ftp) and while PLs helped this a lot having intervals and workouts seemingly much more individualized is an awesome change to see.

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Yeah, I want to add that after launch. We’re too close to launch.

Don’t tell anyone, but we’re trying to get it out today; tomorrow at the latest. :shushing_face: Our issue is we have a lot of people on vacation, so we might go Monday if we have a critical issue and don’t have enough engineers to fix. Hopefully we can at least get all the beta people in today/tomorrow.

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This sentence makes me think that wearing a heart rate monitor during workouts is important (or at least useful). Is this correct?

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Just get Claude to fix it for you and ship it. I’m sure nothing can go wrong with this plan.

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Yes! Wear your heart rate monitors.

When we added heart rate to the model our predictions improved. It wasn’t a huge improvement, just incremental. But it’s still an improvement!

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Oh yah, we want to have a Fitness Score where it’s a combination of performance in all zones and different types of fitness (max power vs durability vs endurance, etc).

We’d then normalize that into some number. Maybe 1000 = World Tour Pro

We could calculate it for every day in your career and we could graph it over time. And we could rank you with all athletes as a number and percentile; and have filters for age group and gender.

After each ride you could see how you move up the leaderboard.

I think it would be fun and motivating. Kinda of like the peloton model but more accurate.

And I think peloton has proven that you can be ranked 29,321 but if you move up to 28,293 it feels like a big win!

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I appreciate the enthusiasm but maybe it’s best to stick with discussing the about to launch features right now rather than talk about stuff that isn’t in beta yet. At this point you already have lots of folks itching to get into the beta or have the AI stuff launch.

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You’re touching on a good point here.

If we predict your power, it might be different inside vs outside.

We would probably predict your 20 and 60 min indoor power to make things consistent. Then you’d be able to see how changes to your training or time off affect those.

We could also add it as a drill-in for prediction if we wanted to…

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You’d be surprised the amount of Claude we use! But humans have seemed to figure this one out and are fixing it now.

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I’d still like to do the occasional old school FTP test, primarily to know how to pace my races. How should I treat the results of those tests? Enter them into TrainerRoad and use them for training as well, letting AI FTP adjust as needed; or only use them for outdoor/race pacing, and only use AI FTP for training?

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Too late to join the beta testers for this? Would love to try this out.

That would be awesome!

We’re trying to soft launch it today/tomorrow in early access. Just dont tell anyone :-D.

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