I’ve been using TrainerRoad for many years, but been consistent since Jan 2025 as I try to regain the fitness I lost after starting a family.
For context, I’m mid 40’s, and all outdoor rides during this time are also logged on TR with power data. Although, probably less than 10 outdoor rides during this time.
I’ve been following low volume plans, so 3 structured trainer rides per week.
The FTP gains have been pretty poor, but I put this down to being my age. I started at 217w on 3rd January 2025 and as of the 21st January 2026, I’m at 234w…. A 17w increase in over a year!!
TrainerRoad AI just dropped, and I was quite excited. However, the first thing it did was recalculate my FTP, and whilst I was expecting 234-238w, possibly even 240w, it estimated my FTP at 218w!!
WTAF
So what have I gained from the last 12 months worth of training? Was the previous AI FTP detection that wrong???
I’m in a similar boat. I had intentionally set my FTP to 300 and even with every two weeks ‘offering’ to increase it to 310 I kept it at 300 just for the winter. It just set it at 272. I can sit at 272 all day in mid low zone 3. If that were my real FTP I’d cry into my gatorade.
More troubling however is that I do not have my workouts scheduled out 4 weeks, and “AI” is predicting that if I didn’t work out until Feb 18, my FTP would be 231. That’s an additional 15% loss in FTP predicted in 28 days which seems unbelievable as a physical decline. At that rate, your FTP would be 100 by august.
Meanwhile, TR still does not pick up my TrainingPeaks scheduled workouts more than 3-4 days out - Saturday’s listed workout is still not showing
AI FTP Detection is all new with the release of TrainerRoad AI, so a good metaphor for this is you just got a new scale that is better calibrated. Comparing the values from the old scale to your new scale wouldn’t make much sense, and the same applies here.
The new AI FTP Detection will give you better training.
Sometimes you’ve got to take a step back to make a leap forward. I’m hoping that anyway AI dropped my FTP 5.9% but prior to this latest update I’ve plateaued about the same value, hopefully in the long run I’ll smash through it
TrainerRoad AI is a step change improvement compared to Adaptive Training and even more so when compared to athletes picking their own workouts or having a coach pick them inside TrainerRoad.
Additionally, it also does a better job of serving athletes on the edges of the bell curve.
It wouldn’t make sense to revert to worse training for our athletes, so we don’t have a way to turn it off.
Give it a shot and we’re confident it will improve your training!
I get the whole “you are not your FTP” argument, but I’m curious when we see such a large swing in either direction with this new AI, how that might impact my pacing plan for longer gravel races? I’ve tried racing by RPE but have found setting an intensity factor goal to be more effective. I’ve referenced this article on several occasions when setting NP goals for long events.
Here’s what Nate mentioned on this topic in this thread:
I’ve used my old FTP to pace!
Your fitness is a combination of FTP and your athlete level. But if you found you could hold your FTP for X minutes at a level 5 threshold, that will be the same in the new system. You could also self-adjust your FTP down/up until the AI gives you a level 5 if you have a one-time pacing question. That’s a way to get it answered in whatever system you used to use.
@Jonathan I find the analogy with the scale good but seems not to work for everyone.
Another analogy for people could be: Imagine you buy new power meter pedals that have more features and measure power more precisely but show 10 watt less than the old pedals. Would you throw the new pedals away or would you just use these better ones and continue training with an adjusted value?
And the most important thing what people seem to forget: Whatever pedals you use…your speed on the bike is the same!!
The system doesn’t even know what FTP is any more. It looks at the raw data and then back calculates an “FTP” from that. Your wattage isn’t changing, the way the system provides work is the only thing that’s changing, and this is for the better. The “FTP” changes are normalizing everyone toward a 3 pl at threshold. For some this means the number went up, and for others it went down, but progress will continue from there. It would make zero sense to allow anyone to turn it off.
I’ve been on the beta for a long time andi I can say without any qualms that this update is the best thing to ever happen to TR. Its ability to prescribe workouts is amazing. It’ll hold you right at the edge and keep you progressing, even when you doubt yourself.
If you really need an Ftp proxy number, look at your 40 minute power on the power curve.
You might have missed the previous post, but we’re going to be more of a stickler about the “be excellent to eachother” forum rule.
The post title is inflammatory, and I believe the AI is doing exactly what it should for your case.
I’m going to change it to “Why is my AI FTP Detection lower?”
The contrast between those threshold workouts is very similar to what I experienced during the Beta and I’m loving it.
Previously, my Threshold progression levels were generally quite low (partly that I think my FTP was set too high, and then me avoiding these workout types). I would often get served the lower-level workouts like Auburn and get through them OK, but rate them hard because the intensity was higher than it should be. Ultimately it meant I could never progress to higher PLs and longer intervals. I also think that while I got through these workouts, they cooked my legs more than they should and took longer to recover from, impacting subsequent rides.
Since being in the Beta, I’m starting to do the threshold workouts with longer intervals, now at a lower power target. 8% lower - but they feel right. The unders are true unders and the overs are only slightly over. While the intervals are longer, which adds a rewarding challenge, they are actually easier to recover from and don’t disturb my subsequent workouts. I am absolutely convinced that this will be more productive for my training and improving my power curve.
It is early days, I’m just finishing a Base phase, but I’m feeling a lot better and looking forward to bringing this into a Build and seeing how that goes. Thanks to the whole TR team for the work on this!
Another early beta user. I had a two week holiday over Christmas with no riding. The initial AIFTp dropped me from 256 to 251. Then they tweaked the system and I dropped again to 245. I accepted both. The workouts since then have been perfect. Hard workouts are hard and easy workout are easy. I would encourage everyone to try it out for a couple of months accepting the AIFTP. I feel pretty confident that new system will work for pretty much everyone.
It dropped my FTP by enough that what was threshold, became (the upper end) of my sweet spot, couldn’t what you are saying have been done by increasing the length of sweet spot workout provided, or where you nervous about being labelled “the sweetspot company”,
It feels to me that you have made AIFTP bend to fit the existing scored workouts progession levels, rather than sorting out progression levels and the training plans themselves
Anyway I was came. back to evaluate if TR fitted my needs, and have come to the conclusion that it did/ but doesn’t now
yesterday (a couple of hours ago!) after my workout my detection lowered me from 264 to 247 but predicted rising to 270 in a few weeks. I skipped it. After reading all the topics I gave it a go and it lowered to 247 again but the prediction now was 248! lol
