My entire cycling career I’ve gone up and down in consistency (life/work often get in the way) and my FTP has floated between 200-280 over the years. The last 3-4 months I’ve been training quite consistently (mostly base masters high volume, which is a nice balance).
Last weekend I went for a ride outdoors and set 20min, 30min and 60min all time power PRs (yay!).
20min 284w
60min 262w
90% of 20 min power 255w
Strava FTP estimate 278w
Intervals.icu FTP estimate 274w
Current TR FTP 246w
I was worried that the source of the delta was different power meters so I put my outdoor bike and did a comparison which shows they are quite similar.
My next Ai FTP detection is two weeks away, do I just wait and see what it says? Do I increase now? If so what to use?
I worry that bumping my workouts up by 10% instantly could set me up for failure but I don’t want to just leave too much on the table or tank my consistency.
Bumping up the ftp should lower PLs a bit. You can very safely say your ftp is at least 260w, I would personally rather train at an ftp I knew was correct that one that was not.
Strong stuff @Mikeferguson1980 Where are you doing your workouts? Outdoors on the right course power is easier to obtain due to things like, natural air cooling, and momentum etc and motivation can play a factor too. I remember I did my fastest 25miles at 295w and it felt like a high tempo ride at most, I think my coached FTP back then was 270w. If you are training indoors and following AI FTP I’d be consistent with it and let it coach you as to what it thinks you can consistently achieve.
I think leave the FTP where it is, & bump the workouts up to 105% intensity. That way you’re not committed to the higher FTP, if you start finding it too much (either within a workout or during the week) you can always drop it back to 100% & it shouldn’t register as a struggle. For all the time you’re working at a higher target, AIFTP will take that into account.
I would change your FTP manually to 262 W and validate it with threshold workouts. If your FTP is off by over 6 %, then many over/unders (with 105 % overs) would be under/unders. If threshold workouts still feel easy, I’d up that to 270 W and then 278 W (corresponding to Strava’s and Intervals.icu’s estimates).
The comment that indoor and outdoor FTPs might be different is valid, but with such a substantial difference, I reckon the difference is so large that also the indoor FTP significantly above 246 W.
One last word regarding AI FTP: in my experience, it has been conservative, i. e. its estimates are often too low for me, personally. After long training pauses (due to sickness mostly), it can be way off. During training cycles, it is typically 1 % below what feels like my correct FTP. (I validate my FTP with threshold intervals and I know the feeling of being right on the knife’s edge.)
I’ve hit some all-time power PR numbers in the past outdoors due to factors such as going hard in a group and massive headwinds where you had to keep on the gas to keep going to make it by sundown. All that being said I think I’d implode if I tried to bump to those numbers immediately. for context, it was about a 25% bump in power. Now, I may have been under-assed just coming out of the base period to start spring riding but that is a whole different discussion.
I’d say a 1-2% manual bump during your workouts for this week and then possibly for next week likely won’t crush you and you can always turn the intensity back down to 100% during the workout if needed and then AIFTP will sort it out for you when the next assessment comes around in 2 weeks.
I find that the most important part of having an accurate FTP is determining what your numbers will be for interval workouts. The 55%-65%, in my opinion, don’t make a huge difference whether your FTP is 255 watts or 270 watts. With both, you’ll likely be in the easy/endurance range. With your intervals, it may make the difference in not being able to complete them.
With that in mind, are your intervals completed indoors or outdoors? I think it would be prudent to perform your FTP test in the same setting that you will be performing your intervals.
For sake of hitting FTP “goals” or just general information, I would consider whatever setting I can hit the highest numbers. If I can only hit 250 on a trainer, but 270 outside, I’d like to think my “actual” FTP is 270. If I am doing all my intervals on the trainer, I should probably set my FTP to 250.
Great work on crushing your power goals. A great achievement!
We recommend what @ddetch mentioned above – for the sake of consistency, it can be good to keep your fitness assessments/AI FTP Detections scheduled at the same time they’d usually be (typically at the start of a new block of training).
I don’t think you should worry about leaving anything on the table, either – if anything, it can be good to stay a little conservative and finish this block off strong.
Rest assured that AI FTP Detection will use this data from your PR ride the next time you run it!