AI FTP Overestimation?

TrainerRoad Software
1

Just created a trainer road account. Uploaded all my Strava data and my recent FTP ramp tests.

I did an FTP test 2 months ago that had me at 170 after I completed an 8 week beginner FTP training block. After 6 weeks of the next block (maybe should have taken more than a week off between blocks) my second FTP ramp test said I was 167 (did not sleep well night before). Waited two days and took another ramp test this week that that had me at 169 FTP. After signing up last night and using AI FTP, it said my FTP is 202.

Unsure of what to make of all that and feel hesitant about seting my training to 202 FTP. The last training block that I finished two weeks ago was hard for me at 170 FTP admittedly though I think it was also too much intensity. I went on a tough but regular group ride the same day as my ramp tests this week and it said I matched my best power output for an hour, which is awesome considering I did a ramp test earlier in the day and I felt pretty good on the ride so maybe my FTP is higher than I tested? Really unsure what to make of all this. Should I set my training to 170 or 202?

2

Likely safer to go with the lower number and

i) answer the post workout surveys honestly

ii) if a workout really felt too easy, and the next one looks too easy, use workout alternatives to choose a harder one

iii) get 10 rides on on the TR platform so that AIFTP is working from that data as it gets to know you

Or, go with the higher number and change ii) to

ii) if a workout really felt too hard, and the next one looks too hard, use workout alternatives to choose an easier one

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3

I recently got an AI FTP which was about 10% higher than reality. So, you’re not the only one.

If you know your FTP, just use that number.

4

Back to one of the forum’s perennial questions: does knowing the result of your ramp test = knowing your FTP? etc. etc.

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5

Ramp test is not your FTP. If you are lucky it might line up closely, but it isn’t your FTP.

I’m actually one of the lucky ones, it’s very close to my FTP, within rounding error.

(My ramp test is LOWER than AI)

6

Yeah that makes sense, I did not realize there is a post work out survey that will tailor subsequent workouts.

I thought the 10 ride requisite for AI FTP determination was no longer necessary so I didn’t think to set up in TR and expect an adjusted FTP. I’ll do that.

Cheers.

7

Did you just manually set your FTPn so what you truly think it is?

If thats the case, when is AI FTP ever the most reliable FTP source of truth?

8

I did manually set mine, and rejected the last proposed bump.

I’m sure it is normally close enough to be fine to use. But if you are confident that you know your own FTP, then use that number. Worst case scenario, use the lower number.

9

I expect your AIFTP will become more accurate when it has some TR workouts, completed in the TR workout player, to crunch on.

Others might disagree, but I would take quite some convincing that I am not correct.

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10

My FTP has been in the 216 range for a while. I completed the Build Me Up plan on Zwift before integrating TrainerRoad so expected a slight bump but was flabbergasted when the AI pegged my FTP at 257. I did a ramp test and landed at 227, which is likely high since I’m a stronger sprinter than climber or time trialist. 227 has felt about right since. I can’t imagine over/unders at 257!

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