AI FTP Overestimation?

Just created a trainer road account. Uploaded all my Strava data and my recent FTP ramp tests.

I did an FTP test 2 months ago that had me at 170 after I completed an 8 week beginner FTP training block. After 6 weeks of the next block (maybe should have taken more than a week off between blocks) my second FTP ramp test said I was 167 (did not sleep well night before). Waited two days and took another ramp test this week that that had me at 169 FTP. After signing up last night and using AI FTP, it said my FTP is 202.

Unsure of what to make of all that and feel hesitant about seting my training to 202 FTP. The last training block that I finished two weeks ago was hard for me at 170 FTP admittedly though I think it was also too much intensity. I went on a tough but regular group ride the same day as my ramp tests this week and it said I matched my best power output for an hour, which is awesome considering I did a ramp test earlier in the day and I felt pretty good on the ride so maybe my FTP is higher than I tested? Really unsure what to make of all this. Should I set my training to 170 or 202?

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I recently got an AI FTP which was about 10% higher than reality. So, you’re not the only one.

If you know your FTP, just use that number.

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Ramp test is not your FTP. If you are lucky it might line up closely, but it isn’t your FTP.

I’m actually one of the lucky ones, it’s very close to my FTP, within rounding error.

(My ramp test is LOWER than AI)

Yeah that makes sense, I did not realize there is a post work out survey that will tailor subsequent workouts.

I thought the 10 ride requisite for AI FTP determination was no longer necessary so I didn’t think to set up in TR and expect an adjusted FTP. I’ll do that.

Cheers.

Did you just manually set your FTPn so what you truly think it is?

If thats the case, when is AI FTP ever the most reliable FTP source of truth?

I did manually set mine, and rejected the last proposed bump.

I’m sure it is normally close enough to be fine to use. But if you are confident that you know your own FTP, then use that number. Worst case scenario, use the lower number.

My FTP has been in the 216 range for a while. I completed the Build Me Up plan on Zwift before integrating TrainerRoad so expected a slight bump but was flabbergasted when the AI pegged my FTP at 257. I did a ramp test and landed at 227, which is likely high since I’m a stronger sprinter than climber or time trialist. 227 has felt about right since. I can’t imagine over/unders at 257!

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I’ve been using the AI FTP for a year, it has probably push me harder than needed overestimating my ftp. But it overtime is getting me faster.
I did a lactate and threshold test on a Lab as a research participant and I did experience a 10% overestimation of my FTP and my zone 2(endurance) power. Overall, I don’t really think the body has hard lines on the zones, those are man made.
Now, knowing that If was about to go on a very long ride or race, I would probably go in knowing that my FTP is overstimated by 10% that way I won’t blow up

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Agreed. I’ve noticed this as well. Ramp, 8, and 20 minute tests are just estimations of FTP. The only way to truly know your FTP is to do a full hr effort as hard as possible which I’d predict is 99% higher than AI FTP. But even then you’d have to train up to do a legit FTP effort just to figure out pacing.

I really wish people would stop pushing 1hr power = FTP. It’s not it.

You can easily have someone’s ftp range from ~30- ~70m.

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We’re pretty confident in AI FTP Detection, but if anyone is having issues with their training using the figures we’ve assigned, I’d recommend either reaching out to support@trainerroad.com or trying out the workout Marion to see how it feels.

If you can knock that one out and it feels hard, but not like a completely all-out effort, then your FTP is probably in the ballpark.

Keep in mind that your FTP is almost always an estimation, and it varies from one day/week to the next, depending on where you’re at in your training cycle, so a little up or down here or there isn’t the biggest deal, especially with TR. We’ll still get you the right workouts regardless. :+1:

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I found the ramp test under estimated what I could do iin a 20mins test (maybe I’m a better stable state athlete) and AI FTP is giviing me a value in between. So far AI FTP has felt right but the vast majority of my recent stuff has been outdoors and quite a lot unstructured.. I guess I’ll find out if it continues to feel right in the dark evenings which arent far off!

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I feel this too. I think AIFTP is a semi decent representation of what you can do in your training environment given the cooling, pwr meter, training time.

Taking this number out into variable conditions of the real world might give a wildly different result. Ie easy to do high power in or outside. Rate of recovery between sessions, repeatability of efforts. Etc

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Think of it as your TrainerRoad workout score, might not reflect outside 100% but with the workout feedback it is a good number for your workouts.

It could be called anything IMO just that FTP is the agreed name.

One thing that might be nice is if AI FTP could be broken down into inside, outside and overall.

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THIS

AI FTP
AI FTrainingP
AI FTrainerRoadP
Is my personal take on it.

Within the TR environment the AI FTP will provide well balanced and structured training and workouts which will make you stronger/faster/better. It does not necessarily = the coveted roadie definition of outdoor FTP. :slightly_smiling_face:

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