As the Tour kicks off on Saturday, July 5, who’s your pick to win?
- Tadej Pogacar
- Jonas Vingegaard
- Remco Evenepoel
- Joao Almeida
- Primoz Roglic
- Matteo Jorgenson
- Florian Lipowitz
- Simon Yates
- Someone Else
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voters
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What are the real rules of the Tour de France? via Escape Collective (should be viewable by anyone this week only
Assuming no major crashes, team issues, health issues, etc., I think it’d be hard to confidently bet on anyone other than Pogacar.
He’s a lot of fun to watch the way he races aggressively and takes risks, be it on flyers or chasing down other riders. He is also humble and seems practically as excited for other racers when they win as he would for himself. I love the tight races with finish line sprints, but can also really enjoy seeing someone take a hard pull and just drop the entire peloton in the right manner.
As much as Jonas is the #2 contender, I feel like the beatdown he took at the Dauphine is going to play pretty hard on him mentally. Physical ability aside, Tadej seems like a much stronger rider mentally as well.
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I’m hoping either / both the fight for 2 and 3 are exciting, as I expect Pg to win by over 5 minutes barring a crash / illness
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Curious what Roglic will manage to deliver with Lipowitz breathing down his neck after his strong performance at the Dauphine and RedBull Bora’s Giro getting rescued by a newcomer.
And very excited about the fight for the green jersey: Will Pogacar just take it along the way, will Girmay take it home again or will Philippsen, Merlier or Milan be the lucky one.
I dont care who wins I just want it to HURRY UP AND START.
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I agree with this part 100%.
This part, I don’t.
I actually hate when one rider is as dominant as Pogacar is, but I think that while he’s incredibly strong, his real superpower is on the mental side of the game. He’s better than everyone else and he knows it. He knows he can suffer and still win, and the more he sees you suffer, the stronger he gets. No one else comes close, and when they do, his mental game makes the difference. It actually reminds me a lot of Lance. I have a lot of bad things to say about Lance, but his attitude was the thing that put him ahead of his peers who were all doing the same things.
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Being all those things and being humble aren’t mutually exclusive. You actually brought up a great point about Lance. Lance and Tadej are similar in a lot of ways. Tadej is humble. Lance was not. You can be confident and humble.
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This. Post Paris-Roubaix Tadej said, “If I were a child today, my hero would be Mathieu.” He is often seen congratulating the winners very openly at the finish line when he loses and always propping up his team and competitors.
In comparison, athletes like Muhammad Ali or Connor McGregor are the very opposite of humble.
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I think you’re right
I think of the GC riders he has by far the best race sense. He’s very very good at being in the right spot, not missing splits, not being surprised (closest I’ve seen to this was his double take when Jonas attacked on stage 1 of the dauphine)
Eventually he’ll miss something or have a run of bad luck, but he’s much better at conserving energy in the peloton than most because of this race sense
He’s not tactically perfect, no one is. He regularly over extends in solos. More conservative tactics will be needed to continue winning as the physical gap closes - but if he were to race more conservatively he’d win even more, just by smaller margins
This devil may care attitude of just sending it fits his personality well and is a large part of his popularity. If he raced ‘smarter’ and conservatively I think many would grow tired of him strangling races
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I don’t fully agree. Sure, there are varying degrees of humility, but I think Vingegaard is humble in a way that keeps him from beating Pog most of the time.
It may have improved in years but I wouldn’t say he’s better than most. His capabilities are head and shoulders above most other riders so he doesn’t need to be good at conserving energy, he just has the energy/power to go whenever he wants. Your last statement I think is more accurate.
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Hard disagree
He’s the only GC contender who does not need a dedicated pilot fish at all times on flat classic like courses
He’s not on the level of a true rouleur but for a GC rider he’s head and shoulders above his competition
This is what makes him most likable for me: You can see he really loves the race for what it is. He thrives on strong competition, gets annoyed when it’s to easy and - sometimes to his disadvantage - gets pissed when others are playing tactics instead of racing their bikes.
It feels a bit childish, but also very true to the sport itself
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I would argue that for most riders, “playing tactics” is racing their bikes. Real bike racing is a “pure” Zwift like exercise contest, so understanding tactics is the way to win if you aren’t the best physical specimen.
You actually saw this play out in the Giro where UAE didn’t know how to race tactically, so they got beat because they didn’t have Pog there to use his alien-like physiology to just win the race.
I actually admire smart, tactical racers who aren’t that naturally gifted, yet still figure out how to win. On some level, I admire these racers more than Pog.
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I see you too love Roglic 
I usually prefer riders overcoming adversity, scrapping out a win. Cheering for the underdog
Somehow, Pog is the exception to this - I can’t explain or justify it. UAE without Pog - evil empire, cheering against them. UAE with Pog - can’t help but smile when he wins.
Mostly I’m a neutral though - I want a competitive race and lots of excitement
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I think Pog has a decent mental game, but I don’t see anything unique there winning him bike races. He races dumb (ie - entertaining) sometimes and still has the physiology to win. I don’t think it’s so much a “killer instinct” but more like “I’m the strongest and I like to mix it up”. Lance would have killed puppies to win a bike race, I don’t see that in Pogacar (and that’s refreshing).
And I’m a fan of Lance as a bike racer (more so than most of the other dopers of the era). He wasn’t nearly as dominant as Pogacar on the bike, but he was pretty smart with building a team and executing a grand tour. He brought it all on himself, but I still think he got screwed when you see people like Indurain being celebrated and keeping their wins while Lance is exiled because he got caught.
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Did they cut some stages short because of weather the past couple years? I wonder how many stages will be cut short this year from storms, and especially heat. How many riders will drop out, some literally.
I just hope people, competitors and those that watch and work the tour can have a safe tour. I keep getting reports that there will be higher than normal temps, and some record breaking ones too. Being in Vegas the end of September, the temps were scorching. Every night the weather casters were predicting lower temps, and every morning they were raising the predictions for the rest of the week. I was worried about the smog, but dropped the idea of an outdoor ride due to the heat.
‘Hot Takes’? We’ll see…
I’m in Paris. It hit 100 yesterday.
Pog just loves to ride, and keeps it fun, even when he’s suffering.
Similar attitude made Sagan likable.
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