2020 Tour de France Discussion

I’m looking at the favorites according to the betting odds, and there are a few interesting observations:

  • Colombia seems to be the powerhouse nation when it comes to good riders, they have 8 of the top 31 favorites and their combined odds are over 36%. (of course most of this is Egan)…but still remarkable when you adjust for population, gdp per capita and commercial interests. The smart bet is that a Colombian will win the TdF.

  • French riders are over represented in number relative to their skill, but appropriately represented given commercial interests.

  • Jumbo has the strongest team with 5 favorites and 36% odds. The smart bet is that a Jumbo guy will win the TdF.

  • These are the guys that in my opinion, given the implied odds, offer the best risk/reward:

    Richard Carapaz
    Miguel Angel Lopez
    Sergio Higuita
    Dani Martinez

Here’s the list :

Cheers!

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Where are those odds from?

Talent wise Landa really stands out, has he got the the team though. 40/1 is worth a punt given the uncertainty around other riders. Hoping Pinot can do it though.

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Well, Fuglsang is not even riding the TdF…

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…and George Bennett is Australian as Phar Lap, pavlova, and Crowded House…

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You know WvA is flying when they even give him odds to win the tour :rofl:

No way Dumolin should be 7/1. He’s good, but not in his old form and will be 100% riding for Roglic.

If I was a gambling man, my money would be on Pogacar…

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Think I’d favour Carapaz on those odds.

Beat Roglic at the Giro 2019. Although that may be that Roglic peaked too soon rather than just Carapaz’s brilliance alone.

Counter to that is Jumbo sort that out on Vuelta, and team is stronger than last year.

Tom Dumoulin is French?

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good point, on less. He is Dutch

Good catch. He had oods nevertheless, removed. H

From here. H

Does that change the representation numbers of French riders by a noticeable margin?

Not really. They still have 5 in top 30. I guess it makes the Colombian number even more impressive, 8 in the top 30. H

Quite possible that due to the Coronavirus that the Colombian riders have a slight edge on the rest of the peleton having been able to consistently train at altitude. It should be interesting, though my money is on Roglic. I am considering dropping a small wager on M.A. Lopez as well. Those odds are tempting for a rider that has everything needed to win.

Agree on MA Lopez. Colombian riders were locked up for 4-6 weeks and then got a government permit to ride. I think the biggest factor for this generation of Colombians is the more stringent drug testing protocols. Now you get to see the natural genetic adaptations of living and training at altitude shine. H

Maybe also helps that there is now so much information in the public domain on how pros train, eat, recover, etc. Means anybody with an Internet connection can get a pretty good understanding of what they need to do, even in the absence of many of the development pathways that exist in Europe.

If there was more TT kms then I think Roglic would be unbeatable. Provided he has recovered from his fall at the Dauphine then I still favour him to win, if Kruijswijk was fit I woud have said Jumbo would be unbeatable as a team - they have Bennet, Kuss, Van Aert, Dumoulin, Martin even without the injured dutchman…the power is incredible and even Ineos at their best in Sky days would struggle to live with that - and they all appear to be behind Roglic as opposed to just SAYING they are…I hope he does it - I’m a huge fan of his back story and his team in general: :smile:

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Alright…less than a week to go. We got through the Dauphine better than I expected (COVID-wise), so I have increased hopes that we may actually get through the Tour. Let’s see your Podium Picks, Jersey winners and one surprise /shocking pick.

Podium Picks
Bernal
Buchmann
Dani Martinez

Maillot Vert
Wout Van Aert

Maillot Pois
Mikel Landa

Maillot Blanc
Bernal (by default since he wins the race)

Surprise pick - Roglic DNF (just a hunch)

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