That’s exactly why I added the poll to my original post. Based on what happened with the Tour de Suisse, I’m betting that COVID will be a deciding factor in this year’s Tour. Either because it knocks out one of the favorites, or has a major impact on one of the favorites teams. If stages 2 & 5 were later in the race, I would bet that COVID would be the deciding factor, as a favorite with a weaker team on these two stages could lose massive amounts of time.
Stage 2 - 90 kilometers along the coast (wind / echelons) + crossing the Great Belt Bridge, which is 21km from the finish, and the bridge is ~6.8km in length so more change of crosswinds / echelons / chaos
Stage 5 has 11 cobbled sectors
So both of these stages have the potential for significant time to be taken from GC contenders, if the conditions are right and a team attempts to use these stages strategically. I’m really hoping that JV or another team (or a combination of several teams) with a GC contender tries to use these stages to put minutes into Pogacar. If that doesn’t happen, the Tour GC battle will be as much of a snooze fest as the Giro was IMHO
I find the Tour de Suisse and a grand Tour very, very different.
Thomas has exited recent GTs after crashes or feeling bad. You can probably push through those things in a 7 day event. Not so much in a 23 day event.
Then again, it remains to be seen how hard fought the podium places are. Sometimes the level behind the first two falls off dramatically.
Just don’t think Thomas is a top 5 rider atm, probably top 20 on a top 2 team.
By that measure, Yates is also out (and Pidcock as a domestique) before the Tour even starts.
Sagan was never going to be a runner for the green jersey IMO, times have moved on.
Against Wout van Aert (who has targeted this session primary goal), Sam Bennett, Cavendish’s replacement?, Michael Matthews. Sadly Colbrelli is out.
Sure. But that’s a really long time ago when you are on the tail end of your career. At 36, his ability to recover is on the decline.
Favourite in that race - yes. But the crash was already on stage 4. Not like he was cruising to victory only to be taken out by a crash in the last few days. Much could have happened in-between stage 4 an 21.
That being said, I wouldn’t totally rule out a podium spot in the tour. I just don’t think he is a favourite for it.