Tour de France 2022 - Hot Takes / Predictions / Spoilers Allowed (once the. Tour starts)

I don’t think carapaz is doing TDF

Exactly, the stats quoted only make sense if you can separate out all those years riding as a (super) domestique Vs true leader.

Mas is an ok shout but I’d say comparing TdF stats and La Vuelta is also apples and oranges. The Tour level of competition is higher, the parcour is different and his highest finish in the Tour was 5th place in an edition Thomas didn’t participate in (pretty sure) - he’s relevant but not comparable.

Ah ok - my mistake!
In which case I have Roglic in third :smiley:

You are misrepresenting these stats…1) he does not have 15 podium finishes. He has 15 “stage podiums”, which isn’t really a stat that is tracked. 2 of those stage wins was from 2018 when he won the Tour and the 11 of those jerseys were also from 2018 (the other 4 were in 2017, after he won the opening TT). So the majority of those successes were clustered in a specific time frame and are not representative of his entire GT career.

I like Thomas and want to see him do well….I think he got screwed in 2019 when Ineos did not grant him outright leadership……but the reality is that some issue almost always befalls him when racing for GT’s.

In the end it will be Quintana that takes third. Mark my words lol

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I definitely think Jumbo is setting themselves up for “failure” with their split team approach. I say “failure” because if Wout gets Green or Rog or Ving get a podium, they would probably see it as a success, but this approach will make it so much harder for Rog to win and I predict that their split attention to helping Wout get yellow early and then win stages for points, will force Rog into a backfoot position and ultimately he’ll have one or more stages where he loses some time. I actually think Ving could become the heir apparent if Rog falters, but also good chances he has to give up his chance at yellow to try to salvage Rog at some point. I think even so, Ving could get a podium.

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Would be so much better for the series and the sport if they could edit it down live / in the same week.

The formula one version is dramatic and fun, but if you follow the sport, knowing the outcome is going to make it far less relevant and popular.

I suppose it can still win non-cycling-fan viewers though, which is a big win.

Question is then, is he going to be a true leader this year? Looking at the Ineos team I’m highly doubtful they’re going to go all in on a GC leader, seems to me they’ve picked a team with a bunch of different cards to play and will then adapt their goals as the race unfolds. Initial goal will presumably be to get Ganna in yellow and defend that. I would guess if Thomas has a good TT and is their top placed GC rider (excluding Ganna) then he’ll be protected leader as long as he’s up there in the standings. But equally I could see somebody like Hayter or Pidcock doing well on a short TT at which point maybe Thomas finds himself in the familiar position of being kind of a co-leader who gets some protection but can’t fully ride for himself. Would also think that Ineos wouldn’t care about anything lower than a GC podium, so if at any point a podium doesn’t look likely then they’d put more effort into stage hunting, which their team is pretty well equipped for.

It sounds as though the whole team is dedicated to getting Jonas and Rog through the first week. I am thinking they see that as their primary opportunity to create some separation from Pog. They certainly have the roleurs that could make that possible.

But WvA skipping Belgian nationals because of a knee issue could change everything as well.

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hmm, I thought they were going to try to get Wout in yellow on day one and then spend a few fruitless days helping him defend it before he goes chasing points.

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Or Pog does a Pog, wins the day 1 ITT and then stays in yellow for the entire 3 weeks!

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100%.

Yeah, I think it is inevitable that Thomas will be the best placed GC rider for them after Stage 1…but Martinez is a the superior climber and he seemed to be rounding into form at the end of the TdS, following a horrific start. I think he’ll end up being the de facto team leader for Ineos after the climbing starts.

As noted above by @Pbase , Thomas is 36 and the first place GT contenders tend to slip as they get older is in the mountains.

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Given he has started only 11 Tour de France, which I reference in the same sentence, I think it’s blindingly obvious it’s a reference stages. How you could think I was saying he’s podiumed overall 15 times is ludicrous.

I think Martinez is an interesting prospect as outside of the Giro last year, his 3 week record isn’t great as he’s always(?) been a mountain domestique (2 x DNF and highest tour finish 28th). Can a one week stage race like TdS give a good indication of his form, difficult to say. He did climb well on the queen stage though so Ineos will be hoping he can do that repeatedly over three weeks - I doubt the leadership challenge will capitulate early enough to revert to stage hunting.

Well, since you were apparently referencing his entire GT history, not just his Tour history, I’d say my characterization of those stats as misleading is accurate since you are now only focusing on the Tour.

As noted, it really isn’t a stat that anyone tracks or cares about…it is pretty much meaningless.

Key word there is Tour. Not GT, Tour. Which is what this thread is about. I think attempts to use other GT results to justify assertions about TdF performance is… difficult, to put it nicely.

Well since he doesn’t have 4 stage wins in the Tour, you can see why the stats you post are confusing people.

But again, you keep skipping over the fact that “stage podium finishes” isn’t a thing.

Carry on.

Let’s maybe get back to this year’s Tour…

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Like I said, carry on…

In a last minute hot take surprise, Cav gets a starting slot on Friday as LeFevre says Vive La France!!! and brings both of his sprinters.

Sagan looks ready to go.

On Edit - Cav isn’t in yet. Here’s his quote post-nationals win:

“I haven’t had a call from the team one way or the other,” he said plainly. “I’ve trained as if I’m going to the Tour, you can see my condition is there, I know if I went, I’d win.

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