Tour de France 2022 - Hot Takes / Predictions / Spoilers Allowed (once the. Tour starts)

The bridge is 16.5km in total (high bridge + low bridge). All of that is completely exposed. There was a fondo event last week testing out the route of the TDF stage, so segments were created:


Given Sagan’s experience, I’m not sure that having COVID recently is any protection against getting it (or a different variant) again within 6 months.

I think several GC riders will drop out with COVID, and at least 1 team will get decimated.


Let’s be realistic…that was a massively depleted field (as well as one that was arguably pretty weak, anyway)

That is almost his entire GT history, not just recent ones. With the exception of 2018 / 19 TdF, some form of malady always strikes him. And at 36, he is just not the rider he once was.

he was never gonna be able to contest the green jersey this year. Those days are long gone for him.

The Tour is Pog’s for the taking (easily) barring a catastrophe…and COVID is obviously the wildcard. But he had it at the beginning of the year and has been vaxxed (i believe) so that should help him.


Well, my prediction for Thomas third was also assuming a depleted field…
At any rate, 3 seconds behind Evenepoel and 8 seconds before Küng in a ITT is a great performance, no matter how depleted the field…


No doubt…but the Tour won’t be decided in a TT. There are only a total of ~51km of TT’s this year…the outcome will almost certainly be decided before the penultimate stage 40k TT.

The one advantage Thomas may have is on the crosswind days and stage 5. He may be able to pick up some time vs. other GC contenders.

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Am sure to be proven wrong now by typing, but unless something weird happens in stage, the GC teams are hips to the crosswind stuff. From memory, we’ve yet to see Pog or Rog be required to go on the offensive in the hills to make up time lost in earlier stages. That could be an interesting “maybe”.

While hoping GC is thrilling, I’m interested in the side battles and to see which of the non-GC guys manage to get inspired stage wins. Would like to see Sepp Kuss win one (or more) but his job almost guarantees not being able to contest stages.

Tour time is always great!!! (TIOOYK for the old time USENET folks)


Well, Pog did have to do that in 2020 after getting caught out on the stage where he lost ~1:20. Time bonuses saved him.

But overall, yeah…it is really other GC guys that get caught out that could boost Thomas’ chances. I don;t see him catching POg or Rog napping at the back.


I hope he chose just not to share his rides on strava but somewhat alarming today (6/20) was his first ride post Tour de Suisse (6/15) and it was a whopping 23 miles in Andorra while other JV riders are previewing tour climbs (based on the gram).


Given the covid impacts of the two recent races i am surprised they are no reinstituting some type of bubble to preserve the racing. It could be a commercial disaster if they loose half the field / teams. I want the racing to be fought amongst the best, not just who’s left.

I agree Pog wins but I would like to see the Rogilic / Jonas combo put him on the ropes at least once. Would nice to believe that he’s human. He’s been perfect on 41 of 42 tour stages the last 2 years.

Jumbo Visma is going to blow their best chance to win TdF it by not fully supporting their GC ambitions. Giving up WvA + 1 dedicated domestique against a UAE team that is full in for Pogacar seems short sighted if the goal is truly winning. I hope they pull it off.

I also have a hard time believing that MvDP is not going to challenge WvA for the green. Doesn’t seem to be in his blood to let WvA take anything easily.

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IMO, JV should just give Wout a free ride but not give him any dedicated support for the green jersey. He doesn’t need support to win that if he is in top shape.

MvdP doesn’t care for the green jersey, he gets bored easily and would rather attack impulsively than have to focus on points for 21 days…and that is why we love MvdP.


I 100% agree with your statement, but I also think Sagan likely lives a very high risk lifestyle.

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Pog has to be very strong favourite. However, a lot can happen in a 3 week tour, including many things beyond his control (mechanical at a bad time, a dozy fan steps out, his derailleur breaks, etc) and I think JV will be trying to go 2 vs 1 as soon and often as possible. I still think they’ll need something deus ex machina to win the GC, but stranger things have happened.

I’d like Thomas to bow out on a high with a podium, but I can’t see it, in honesty. He’s just not the rider he was 5 years ago (how many of us over 35 are? :grimacing: ) WvA must be odds-on for green, but I can’t see him winning 3 stages again.

My curve ball is we get someone totally unexpected on the podium. Don’t know who, don’t now how, but I just have a feeling that someone will break through or have a massive stroke of fortune.

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I don’t think it’s much of a curveball if you look at the results from the past several grand tours. Who had Hindley on the Giro podium this year? Or Vingegaard last year?


100%….there is almost always a surprise on the podium. Very little chance we see a podium of Pog, Rog and The Fishboy at the end of the race.

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If there’s always a surprise, is it a surprise? :exploding_head:

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The surprise is WHO, not IF. That’s why you’ve gotta name names for your take to be hot. Who you putting up there as the shocker?

OK… hot takes:

Team - Takes:

Let’s wonder for a moment about Team Ineos’ TdF tactics. I’m thinking they will out a train on the front, pull a lot for no reason, and get little to nothing for it. (laughing emoji).

Ganna winning the first TT and taking yellow will be the highlight of the tour for the once fearsome men in black. Luke warm hot takes there eh?

Jumbo ends up supporting WvA for green and gets it, but no yellow.

Vingegaard rides quietly and get’s 3rd.

Sprint - Take:

If healthy, Jakobsen show’s himself up to the pressure for Mapei and wins three stages.

Bennett wins on the Champs.

GC - Take:

After trying to crack Pog, Roglic gives it all but pops on stage 18 losing the podium.

Random - Takes:

A French rider gets polkadots for first two weeks.

Allaphillippee wins one from a break.

Bummer - Takes:

I’m bummed that it looks like no Sagan and no Cav this year. Wanted to see Cavendish break the record and Sagan wheelie up the Alp D’Huez. Oh well.

Come on guys let’s get some outlandish takes out there. Y’all are too conservative – LOL

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I’ve barely paid attention this year. Between COVID in the Peloton and my personal feeling that we’ve entered the next age of doping, I just find it really hard to pay attention or to root for anyone. The survey at the top says it all. It’s not “who do you think will win the TdF?”, it’s “who do you think can squeeze through every stage without testing positive?” That’s just not interesting to me at all.

Notwithstanding I was being a bit meta…

… Lutsenko

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My hot take is that none of the following finish the tour:

  • Roglic
  • Thomas
  • Yates

And I wish the following would target the Polka Dot jersey from Stage 1:

  • Ben O’Connor
  • Pino
  • Daniel Martinez
  • Nairo Quintana
  • EF’s “GC” leader
  • Israel Premier Tech’s “GC” leader