Stuck to the Plan Like Glue - No Gains

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I have been on a crit training plan set to “Demanding” since November 28th. I do four workouts per week - three hard or very hard rides (two hours each) and one endurance ride (2.5 hours). I do two strength training workouts (these do not include any leg-specific movements as I find they negatively effect my ability on the bike) and take one rest day as well. I have failed one workout since I began this plan in November.

I have adhered to this training plan as closely as I possibly could for the past 3.5 months. There are one or two times during this period where I have swapped the very last endurance ride in a training block for a less strict free-ride with a friend (not endurance), or a group ride with friends and teammates (definitely not endurance). I often do three endurance rides on de-load weeks rather than four. In my most recent deload week I decided to take some time away from the bike because of the frustrations I am about to discuss - I only completed one workout. These are the only deviations from my plan. I have a lot of yellow days, but I have had almost no red days, and I haven’t worked out on a red day once since I began this plan. The fatigue detection seems to be working because all of the red/yellow days on my calendar feel like red/yellow days. Not only have I not seen any gains, but my numbers all seem to be moving in the wrong direction.

FTP History:

August 13th - (offseason low) FTP was 298 watts using the old AI FTP detection tool.
November 28th (start of the current plan) - FTP was 309 using the old AI FTP detection tool.

January 10th - FTP reached a high of 316 however Jonathan actually replied to a recent post of mine, went back and checked my FTP on this date using the new AI FTP detection tool. He stated that using the new tool, my FTP would have been 309 on this date.

February 19th - FTP using the new AI FTP Detection tool was down to 306.

March 10th - I took a ramp test today and came up with a 295w FTP.

I am aware that comparing the results of the old tool to the results of the new tool is comparing apples to oranges. However, when you compare the old tool results to themselves and the ramp test result (my understanding is that the old tool was a essentially a prediction of what your ramp test would be if you took one) it is clear the numbers are going down. Similarly, if you compare the new-tool results to themselves, the numbers are going down.

I don’t think this is the result of a new FTP metric or calculation, or the new AI FTP update since, by any measure, my numbers are going down. Unfortunately I think that means that Trainerroad simply isn’t working for me anymore. Its been 3.5 months of very consistent training and I have absolutely nothing to show for it. Moreover, the small gain I did see from August to November (298w - 309w using the old tool) came entirely from doing two unstructured rides per week and two train now/pick-my-own workouts rather than a structured Trainerroad training plan. I am at a complete loss here, and I am about to give up. Please take a look and let me know what I am missing. For what it’s worth, sleep, nutrition, and stress have all been normal/fine through this period as well.

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Looks like you’ve been crushing the vo2 and sprint workouts. How does your PDC compare to previous years?

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Doing three, 2 hour hard/very hard intensity sessions, and only 1 endurance session, seems excessive.

I’m doing 4 days/wk, but two intensity (90 minutes) a 2 hr endurance, and 3-4.5 hr endurance on the weekends. I feel very confident in this structure.

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Just my experience a coach, but 3.5 months is a really long time to be in peak form crushing 3 workouts a week. Physiology I’d expect a plateau and decline for most athletes over that span. As someone who is only on the bike 4x per week and primarily focused on intensity is there any periodization in your schedule or are you just full gas year round?

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What you’re missing is …

… absolutely everything except 1 number.

How do you feel on the bike? How’s your sprint? How’s your 1 minute power? How’s your 5 minute power? How are you responding to surges? How strong are you after 15/30/45 minutes? What’s your repeatability like?

You are not your FTP. Your FTP is not you.

ETA: I’d cut the VO2 Max workouts to an hour. Get 25 minutes of work in at high heart rate / O2 uptake. Add an hour of easy endurance straight afterwards or somewhere else.

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First thing to try if you haven’t already is drop that down to “balanced”.

I’ve not looked at your calendar but it certainly feels like you are trying to do an awful lot of intensity…. if you are not progressing then maybe it’s too much?

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Looks like you were already really well trained in November and your TSS has plateaued since then?

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Paradoxically you might see more gains with less intense sessions? You might even benefit from a masters plan that will give you 2 hard workouts a week rather than 3. Currently it looks like you are just burying yourself with a tone of intensity and might do better switching some intensity for easy days?

But even if that is true….. it looks like you are as fit as you have ever been based on your numbers? You were seeing steady progress up until a few weeks ago…. hard to tell if this recent stagnation is because you are over tired or if its your natural plateau?

edit: let me know if you don’t want the TSS chart posted…

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It’s also worth thinking about what you can do to optimise training off the bike. Maybe you’re plateaued because your recovery or nutrition aren’t as good as they could be.

Glib comment alert, but if everyone put as much effort into optimising their sleep as they did into worrying about their FTP prediction, a lot of people would be a whole lot faster :laughing:

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I had similar (only a bit less adherence cos life) and saw minimal FTP gains, so decided to look at this year compare to last year (no point going to 2024 as mum passing caused my fittness to go off a cliff but for you probably would do) and even if ftp stays static for now I’m def improving shorter intervals.

It might be worth looking at the other data as it sounds like there’s probably other stuff improving.

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Two things - it could be that you’re just a bit tired from constant work, so you can’t hit top power numbers, for example in the ramp test.

The other thing is that it sounds a bit like you’ve reached a plateau with regards to the amount and type of work that you do. You might need to switch it up a bit with a new stimulus to see further progress. With cycling being an endurance sport, often you need to increase volume.

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I’m seeing a good amount of workouts rated Very Hard and/or Too intense. Knowing these ratings the system is calibrating based upon that.

I’d look at your power records chart and see where in the duration curve are you making improvements. It looks like you’re focused on a crit plan so i wouldn’t focus on how much your FTP is improving, rather i’d look at everything < 5min power and see if that’s improving.

I understand the disappointment of seeing FTP not move. How i have gotten out of this rut is looking at the power duration curve and seeing what durations i’m i pushing the curve up. My thought here, if i focus on this, i can stay motivated and forget about a predicted FTP.

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gonna provide a counterpoint, that sometimes the power curve doesn’t improve, at least in my own experience using adaptive training at launch in 2021 (I know some may say “but it’s totally different now!”). I “trusted the process” and nailed just about every workout, but once the season was done, it became clearer I hadn’t really improved at all, other than feeling good about not failing any workouts. In reviewing in retrospect, my power curve wasn’t really better than prior to adaptive training and I’ve certainly made drastic improvements since, mainly because a) I push my TTE in ways TR didn’t b) I don’t do ERG mode for intensity with capped efforts and c) I’ve done more volume than I had been doing with TR, even on the high volume plans.

anyway, i’d echo those who say take a look at your whole power curve, but if you’re not seeing improvements in any aspect of the curve, I’d take a look at getting outside the box and pushing your limits not anchored to TR workouts

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You are not your FTP. Your FTP is not you.

Indeed! But the OP hasn’t actually measured their FTP. It’s been inferred by a computer or a ramp test result.

It might be that OP improved their ability at threshold. Might even have increased their TTE but neither show up in the various estimates used. Might have also improved their aerobic threshold… :man_shrugging:t3:

My suggestion to OP… give up the estimations and measure actual performance.

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I was keeping my powder dry before launching into a rant about the low-key lunacy using a ramp test to somehow “verify” FTP. :wink:

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@smartino8591 - (to come at this from a different angle) you have one line to summarize recovery, fueling, and training capacity in the very last sentence… all of these things will effect your body’s capacity to train and maybe more importantly respond to the training you do.

Did you have an off-season?
How much carbs are you taking in the 18hrs before your workouts?
How many carbs are you taking in on the bike per hour?

Protein intake > .7g per pound of body weight?

How many hours of sleep do you get a night?

Do you have a partner or roommates that you could talk to about your mood over the last few months?

Curious what your weight changes have been over the last couple years and then also specifically this 4month period?

Assuming you have lost minimal weight in that period and you are not a grumpy gus per your friends/family/partner… lol I would still make training adjustments. Many folks are ‘do more’ vibe - but to be in a pretty high volume situation, plus Demanding… mention of plenty of yellow with some red… ratings of workouts, ‘can’t lift legs’, etc… I would adjust to ‘Balanced’ or even less for a few weeks, check the ‘check volume’ button, just take a bit off the volume. See how workouts feel, if you can nail workouts, you will then be able to increase interval length… or power in the range. Resulting in adaptions. “Stuck to the plan like glue” also leaves me worried, most experienced athletes will know something is off on a day or week… putting in unplanned rest days, downgrade workouts, as their body sends them messages (coaches & TR can’t predict this). Any signals, voice in your head… where maybe you’re ‘sticking to the plan because its the plan’ or ‘TR AI would prevent issues/burnout/etc’…. “stay the course, things will adapt” ?

HOW ARE PEOPLE VIEWING OTHER PEOPLES TRAINING Log?! ?? I see no setting or means to click peoples training? Nor do i see a setting for privacy in my workout TR training log??

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In account settings you can change your account from Private (default) to public. If you make yours public then when you are on the web view you will have a warning.

To see someone else’s training, if it’s set to public you go to your career or calendar and swap out your username for theirs.

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