Given the weather the past 3 years I’d personally pass on Lou
Fair point…I was mostly just addressing the course profile.
I guess that would make for a short podcast discussion then.
It’s a really attractive course profile. It would be really deflating (for me) to train up for 8-10 months and then show up and have what happened the last 3 years.
I wouldn’t be too crushed if the swim was cancelled…increases my odds of a slot! 
Even though I prefer hot conditions, I generally perform well when conditions suck. So while cold & rain would not be ideal, I know most people have quit before we even start. Layer properly and jusy go execute.
And sharks 
There isn’t much for hills on the run other than by the Carillon. I think their ability to corner at the base of the descents on the bike would make this a really, really good course for them. Swim is usually pretty mild, with a single loop, wide open lake, awesome crowds, and a bunch of us Trainer Road geeks there to help out. I can give them a great course intel, and they’re more than welcome to come out and train anytime. It’s an awesome race, and huge with first timers, so they won’t be feeling alone, and the chances to KQ are HUGE here, as the best are tapering for Kona that time of year. Any races in Europe or Aus are full of studs!
Another vote for Ironman Wales here.
Beautiful swim setting in the bay, tough honest bike course, no single climb over 6-7mins but plenty of them. You get to experience ‘heartbreak hill’ twice, and it’s never going to be ‘too hot’. Run has a little bump in it but the crowd will get you through it.
@chad will love the beer/crowd/atmosphere in town. Another bonus is T1/T2 are all located together, no split transition.
Who do you all think will do the best in their AG? @Wes_THompson has already voted that I’ll do the worst 
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Isn’t Wales annually recognized as one of the hardest IM courses?
Somewhat depends on the venue. Hot or cool, where, etc…
There all hard in their own way - It favours strong bikers which should fit the TR Road team - At a guess, @Jonathan would smash the bike course light & strong.
A nice write up on the race from a previous year Iron Town article
Be interesting to see what Best bike split estimates their times on the course.
Wales is awesome and there’s an opportunity to “test” the swim and run with LCW-Wales in June. If they look up the profile and reviews, they’ll find it’s not exactly a flat run and the bike is not really rolling and then there’s the two short but steep climbs. I don’t think they’ll go for Wales (though they should). (@Chad would enjoy the pub & beer options, though.)
For the IM recommendation for @Nate_Pearson, @Jonathan, @chad, while IM Wales is truly awesome for its scenery, crowd support, location, town support (before/after race time), and more, I don’t think Chad will not like the very not-flat run up the cliff from the swim and through town to T1 nor will they see the terrific 4-lap run as flat or moderately flat. Awesome, yes, but not flat or nearly so.
I’d suggest, first and foremost, Copenhagen with its protected wetsuit swim with estimated finish time waves (which you commit to at registration, which is great), light roller and fast bike, and a flat run course that’s packed with cheering fans. Plus, it’s great town, easy to get warm-up rides, swims (in local pools and in the ocean), and runs and great food options. An easy town to get around in.
Alternatively, IM Barcelona is flat. Food is great, a relatively inexpensive town, and a nice place to visit. Also great for family and hanging out before and after the race. Late season, Oct 4, and leaves plenty of time for other events through the year (the Sprint, Oly, & Half… plus ability to do and recover from other cycling and running events).
Option 3 is Vitoria-Gasteiz, also in Spain. Mid-July. Lake swim, rolling bike (~3k’), and flat run. Can be hot, not as simple to get to as Barcelona or or Copenhagen. After the race, if staying to hang out for vacation, you’ll probably scoot off to Barcelona or Valencia or elsewhere.
Just to put it out there, IM Switzerland would be interesting. I’m not making it an ‘official’ option because I don’t think it’ll pass the cost test. It has moved from Zurich to Thun, about 2hrs by train from Zurich. It’ll be a hilly bike (reportedly 7200’) but a flat run. The scenery will be outstanding throughout. However, the negative for this race is Switzerland is expensive (food, lodging, everything).
Europe is relatively easy to get to and to get around in, and generally, you don’t require a car rental. Cycling in most countries is safe, making warm-up rides a non-threatening experience. Also, there are post-race rides you may want to explore (if energy permitting). And, there are good family-friendly options for pre-/post-race time.
You have 2+ years. Jonathan is a good enough athlete that he will pick up swimming and probably be faster than me within that time. Especially if he gets some swim coaching.
Jonathan will have the fastest time. Chad will be 2nd fastest, but will finish highest in his respective age group. I don’t think he will KQ though. 50-54 you will still need to break 10hr for a shot. That’s tough.
Nate…we will all be rooting for you! 
The Prague Half fit your description to a T. Add in some great history and culture and incredible brew (more than @chad could dream of) and you’re set. I’ll even volunteer as your tour guide. 
I agree they are all hard. But when you are looking at average finish times, finish rates, etc…
As someone who is a newb to TR, I am just now becoming familiar with your guys’ athletic background. All 3 are obviously outstanding cyclists.
Can you give me a quick recap of each’s age, w/kg and any running results (past or present)? I think Chad (?) had said he has done tri’s in the past?
You’ve gotten plenty of good responses on this one, but intermediate goals, or progression milestones is really what I am after with this.
As Nate mentioned, I’m just following mid-volume plans squeezed into Monday-Friday and adding on Saturday rides. I’m not exactly sure which plans I’ll do leading up to the race, but that’s okay, and that affords me flexibility. Right now I am doing Sweet Spot Base Mid Volume I & II, then General Build. I may do the Specialty Plan after that, and then chop up another build plan and a specialty plan leading into Nationals, but we’ll see.
A couple key points on the glide path:
– The goals I have laid out are 10 minute power, FTP and weight, as I feel these are the most important measurements for success at MTB Nats next year in Winter Park. I’m measuring these with our Personal Records tracking system, which honestly may be the most under-utilized feature we have (it’s so good!). The main climb is 10 minutes long, then a long descent, then an 8’ish minute rolling/surgey section that wants you to be punchy, but punishes you if you do so due to elevation. The race is a fairly steady state affair, and threshold is extremely important due to the elevation.
– Just because I’ve written the goals down doesn’t mean they are achievable. I know that 340 will be a stretch, but it is attainable for me due to previous w/kg bests. In 2015 I was 320w/62kg. I was starving myself and my power was simply not improving all year. I’ve since found that if I stay around 65kg I can eat enough to fuel the sort of work needed to improve my FTP and make real gains in training.
– The increases I am aiming to see are 1.1-1.5% every month. After two months in, I am a bit ahead of schedule. I think this is achievable because I have so much more figured out in terms of nutrition, avoiding injury, training, recovery, etc. than I did in 2015, which was the last time I was truly fast (injuries have held me back since).
I may come up short, but heck, I might overshoot as well. Either way, these intermediate goals help me feel like I know where to be every month rather than waiting until my goal event.