After spending some time with the new AI FTP Prediction, reading the forum threads, and doing some experimenting myself, I wanted to share how I think this tool is actually useful — and how it can become a distraction if you let it.
This is not official TrainerRoad guidance, just one user’s take after using at it for a while.
What AI FTP Prediction is
AI FTP Prediction is best thought of as: A 4-week forecast of how your current training setup is predicted to impact your AI FTP metric.
It’s not:
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A grade
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A promise
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A live measure of how fit you are today
It’s a model that says: “If you train like this, here’s where your TR AiFTP trend likely ends up over the next ~4 weeks.”
What it’s actually useful for
Where I’ve found it genuinely helpful is planning and tweaking, not monitoring.
Specifically, it’s good for answering questions like:
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What happens if I change my Training Approach (Conservative / Balanced / Demanding / Aggressive)?
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What if I add a weekly group ride?
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What if I extend my long ride?
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What if I drop intensity because life is busy?
You can make those changes and see how the projection responds over the next few weeks.
Once you’ve done that initial tuning, the tool has mostly done its job.
How I use it (step by step)
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Look at the prediction when you get a new detection (once every 28 days)
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Make intentional adjustments if needed:
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Training Approach
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How outside rides fit in
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Duration vs intensity
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See if the projected trend roughly matches my intent
(maintain, small build, or push) -
Stop looking at it
After that, I mostly ignore it until the next AI FTP update ~28 days later.
Why watching it day to day is counterproductive
The prediction will move around:
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Especially early in the cycle
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Especially if workouts get moved, skipped, or stacked
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Especially if you’re adding/removing intensity
That doesn’t mean anything is “happening” to your fitness.
In fact, I’ve noticed:
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Changes tend to happen earlier in the prediction window
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In the final week or so, the number usually stabilizes and doesn’t move much anyway
Obsessing over daily fluctuations is like checking a weather forecast every hour and getting stressed when rain chances go from 30% to 35%
A note on distraction (and turning it off)
If you find yourself:
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Reacting emotionally to small changes
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Questioning every workout
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Feeling pressure to “fix” the number
That’s a sign the tool is distracting you more than helping. If that’s the case, turn the prediction off and just train. You can do that permanently or toggle it on/off every 28 days each time you get a new detection. The workouts don’t stop working if you don’t look at the forecast. And the system is still doing its thing in the background.
Set your training up in a way that makes sense, then let the plan run. Consistency still matters way more than any prediction line.
Hope this helps someone avoid a little unnecessary stress.
), I don’t think it is worth obsessing about that. Obsess about consistency, recovery, and fueling. And then it absolutely worth spending a little time once a month to fiddle and see what takes your prediction up or down after a recent detection. I just don’t think its worth the mind space and stress to watch it after every workout or every day.
) just want to know why 
. What is it that I did/did not do to have the prediction go this way? I had a small decrease or two when I did a slightly different workout (and did some ice skating and downhill skiing), which I completely understand. I moved a threshold workout from Saturday to Sunday (which was a rest day), which did not seem to affect the prediction. I suspected this would give me a yellow day on Monday (I rated the threshold workout Very hard), in which case I would downgrade or skip today’s endurance ride. But it didn’t. I did the ride and got a lower predicted FTP, which seems puzzling. I’m curious what happens after tomorrow’s Sweet Spot 
Can I still get auto FTP detection like we’ve had for some time if I turn off the new AI feature? I’m not sure how to turn the new AI off just looking in settings.
. I would also like to point out I’m not upset 