Hang in there! We’re working hard on this! 
You can build any sort of plan you’d like with TR. You can turn off the auto-adapt feature of Fatigue Detection and decide on your own how you’d like your training to go. 
This is not why you subscribe to TR.
@eddie I spoke to Support today, and they were awesome as usual. I understand that the bug is that prediction starts high and then drops to where it should be by detection day. In my case that would have been multiple months with no improvement.
What does your plan look like, and how well are you following along?
I’d be happy to take a look. Can we discuss that stuff here in this thread?
Hey all, wanted to give an update on where we are at on this issue that is still very much front and center for us.
Right now we’re running validations on what we think could be the best path forward. We’re feeling good about it, but we want the testing to tell us it holds up before we put it in front of anyone.
I’m not going to put a date on it, because I don’t want to promise something we can’t stand behind. When something is ready and proven out, you’ll hear it here.
Appreciate your patience, and keep the reports coming. They genuinely help us!
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@eddie yep, I’m fine with that.
And so, today, after I did James outside, hitting the target watts and heartrate dreads at zone 2, my prediction (due to 7 juli) drop from 282 to 276.
Went in to this Base Phase at 283 and after two months of almost only outside rides my FTP drop from 291 and no predicts to 276. This is strange.
Looking at your recent training, it appears that you’re only doing one hard workout each week at best, and most of the time, you’re not really following your training plan.
It seems like you tend to gravitate to the on/off style VO2 workouts, but I think you’d benefit from some of the threshold work that you typically have scheduled later in the week. I’d say that if you’re going to only do one hard workout a week, mix in some of those threshold workouts.
It is hard to talk about any of this with 100% certainty, of course, because you are doing pretty much all of your workouts outside, and so you’re likely being affected by the outside workouts bug, but for best results, I’d put a plan in place that you’re able to stick to and do your best to follow it when you can. That’s how you’ll see the best results.
How have you been feeling about your recent training?
Thanks for having a look @eddie . Last week was rest and before I ‘yellowed’ out of my 2nd intensity day. Week before I was on the TR plan. Before the 11th I was doing structure, but not TR structure.
My question/concern -and as you say, might relate to the bug- is that I lost 6% off my FTP according to TR, while my training load went up. Even if we concede (I’m not 
) that the intensity could have been different, I’d expect a plateau.
If we had some guidance as to why our FTP was changing, either at detection or more frequently, then we could look at that. As it is, we’re reading the tea leaves and guessing.
Cross-posting this one for visibility:
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When I pull up your TR workouts page on the backend, I see workouts on 7/1, 6/30, 6/16, 6/15, 6/14, 4/2, 3/31, so there have definitely been some ups and downs..
How have your workouts been feeling?
Jep, i see this happening, i trained for an Belgium Ardennes La Chouffe Classic 2026 and rode it with succes, this year has been somewhat of a rollercoaster for me. So training , finding time to train, and training consistently has been challenging this winter and at the start of this spring.
Eventually I found some sort of a schedule 12 weeks prior to the event, to somehow prep myself for this event. I felt that the TR Ai approach, got me as good as was possible in the time given.
But is saw the numbers change downwards after outside rides. My own idea was, since i was not precise enough with time in zone, and riding a bit to hard on outside rides. Which is the case every now and then. It qas my own (bad) practice.
And there is/was discrapency between my Kickr v5 and my 4iiii powermeter. I dual recorded a 20 minute ftp test, and compared numbers, did the math and adjusted the 4iiii with the scale factor in the 4iiii app. So the 2 are not equal, but close enough to use the 4iii for training. At least I think so.
Still the 4iiii is not as accurate as the Kickr V5. So all things considered. My lack of consistency and therefor proper base and the discrepancy between the Kickr V5 (inside) and the 4iiii precision single side (outside) , made that i really didn’t think it was a software or AI model thing when the numbers where off in the ftp prediction.
I still had the feeling the approach and training given worked. I can however imagine that to a lot of people, a declining ftp, while working hard, can be frustrating.
I’m a 50+ rider. Training for durabilty and the gentle art of repeatabilty is my goal. So the number of my own ftp isn’t a goal in itself, though i like it when there is an upward trajectory. I understand most people training with TR do want it to go up, so i hope this can be fixed.
For me personally, i’m still calibrating the way to train, and i am even considering ditching the 4iiii, train 3x a week for an hour on the Kickr and ride long rides the weekends, not recording the power. I might save up for a dual sided pm or a pair of assiomas or garmin rally’s . But that’s topic for another day.
Long story short, yes, it should be fixed.
For me personally, to many unknowns in the eqaution at this point in time to be to precise about my ftp. First i need to get the consistency back in my training and measurements.
At the end of a build block, turns out I did not get the 40 watt bump that was predicted. It seemed to adjust down pretty linearly throughout the three hard weeks to a pretty accurate number. Over the last week my out of order recovery week, and maybe heat dome effects put it back to a flat prediction.
Did a 20 minute effort and FTP detection this week. They came out 2w apart on either side of 340. It’s just over 20w higher than last year’s PR.
I see how the prediction number creates a frustrating experience, but pretty much blindly following the plan + some zone 2 in outdoor rides has worked out in every aspect that matters.
Over the last 2 weekends, the more I’ve been riding outside, the less my predicted FTP is 
, and this is regardless of how hard it went!
Same. I’m now predicted to be slower despite completing the prescribed workouts of the last 4 weeks successfully. I know they are working on this, but the frustration level is super high. We have numbered days for outdoor riding in western NY and, thus far, I feel like they’re being somewhat underutilized.
Try switching all the workouts to inside and only change them the night before if you’re going to do it outside and see if that makes a difference. It’s been working great for me doing it that way. FTP is at an all time high and I feel the fittest I’ve ever felt and I’m 53 years old
Hey @eddie I know the bug over estimates the predicted FTP, which is why the numbers drop after completing the workout; but just for clarity can you confirm a few other things surrounding it?
-Earlier on, it sounds like the bug doesn’t affect how the workouts are assigned. However, from more recent posts, it sounds like the algorithm is assigning easier and easier sessions for some folks which may actually lead to lower FTP detection. Is that the case ?
-How would one be able to tell if the prediction dip is is indeed the bug, or maybe from wattage variance due to being out on the road (lights, cars etc) ?
This past week was my easy week so I’ve been just riding outside without following the workouts and the prediction seemed pretty stable, but the the week before last think I was seeing a bit of fluctuation. I’m not sure if that’s the bug or because I often skip warm up and cool downs, or road situations etc. Feel free to look into my profile if anything seems fishy.
It can be tough to tell. There aren’t clearly defined paths that each athlete’s training follows.
Some athletes are getting lower FTPs and easier workouts, while others aren’t. 
I’d look at the power curve from your outside workouts to see how well they match. If you’re following the workout structure closely, the RPE feels appropriate, and you’re communicating that in your post-workout surveys, then you could be running into the bug if your prediction steadily drops.
Agree with use inside planning.