I’m on a 12 week Increasing FTP plan. I’m a Masters 60yr old with a lot of prior racing training experience but basically stopped training hard for a about 2 years due to “life” and am now getting back into it. My scheduling is basically 2 hrs on Sat/Sun and 1 hr on Wed, though most of the time it wants me to take Sun off, completely (which to me seems ridiculous, but that’s another gripe for another time).
At the start of my plan, TR said my FTP was 185. I accepted that, despite it seeming low. At the start of the plan it said my FTP would increase to 195 in 4 weeks. That sounded great. I followed the plan, as prescribed, but missed one Wed night workout due to work and it basically dropped my FTP from 185 to 181…which again seemed insane given that I missed ONE workout. None the less I accepted it and moved on, because it was then telling me in another 4 weeks my FTP would again be 195. Now as I’m nearing the next AI FTP prediction it has been dropping my predicted FTP by about a watt a day, despite the fact that I am hitting or exceeding the numbers for EVERY interval on EVERY workout! Example: Threshold 12 mins at 166-186. I average 186 and have 186 NP for that interval. NOTE: ALL of my workouts are outside.
I don’t get it. If I’m hitting or exceeding the numbers for every interval in every workout AND the workouts don’t seem that difficult so they get a rating of “Moderate”, why is it DECREASING my predicted FTP?!?!?!?
There is apparantly a bug that affects people who do their workouts outdoors, it messes with the AIFTP prediction, it’s mentioned in quite a few other threads and it seems like it’s the number one priority to get sorted. Not sure how that helps you in the short term, I suppose you could always turn the prediction off and just wait for the AIFTP detection if the volitility is causing you stress. Other option would be to return to actually testing your FTP and entering it manually.
I have not been keeping up with the forum lately but this is a pretty massive problem considering I’m doing the majority of my workouts outside these days given the weather. FTP is tanking after the next update. I’m tapering for an event a week from tomorrow.
The bug is that the initial prediction is inflated and then steadily drops during your training block until it matches with the detection you get. Sounds like that’s what you are seeing also.
As other have said. The answer to your question is that you are probably affected by the bug affecting people training outside.
Looking at your calendar the actual results of your training seems aligned with what you’re doing. If you’re also interested in input on how you can improve that I’m sure there are a lot of people on here with many good inputs.
What I don’t get is that this is happening to lots of users with or without outside rides, so I don’t understand why it’s considered a “people who do their workouts outside” bug. I even asked if Zwift was considered outside and was told it’s not.
I also have a plan with inside rides, for the first 2 months the prediction was accurate when I was doing inside rides, however for the folowing 2 when I changed most of the rides (on the day) to outside rides and the prediction kept reducing. The detection was always the same figure
1). It seems to just be using the same workouts over and over again ever since about the 4th week into the plan; Isabel and Nangpai. The target power is the same. So how is that helping me get any better?!?!
2). Today it showed a red day but gave me the option of a 30 minute recovery ride. I chose the recovery ride and the. It changed it from a 30 minute ride to an 1:30! WTF!!! First you tell me I really shouldn’t ride because I need to recover…but hey if you ARE gonna ride let me make it 3x longer than what I originally said.
I suspect you don’t really need that many outside rides to be affected, but for all I now it might be a “people who don’t do all their workouts in the TR app” bug.
I had a predicted increase of 27 watts that kept me motivated and excited. So much so that I brought a bike on a work trip (11 days) to stay on top of my training. Even after long days at work I left the hotel to do my workouts, fueled with the motivation of my new, shiny FTP in my sights. I did have to modify my plan and adjusted the training schedule to miss one workout due to a very long day at work and not enough daylight and one workout due to my travel schedule, these resulted in a decrease of 3W in predicted gains.
This job that I was out of town for is very physically demanding but I nailed all of the workouts at or above prescribed power, except for an odd interval or two that was interrupted by a descent. I was staying in Salinas and riding the trails/roads/hills around Laguna Seca (Sea Otter Classic was a week earlier).
Things started to derail about 15 days out from my detection date, as I completed my workouts the prediction just plummeted. I’m now sitting at a predicted 5W increase but still have 3 days for TR to break my heart.
