At 1343 UK time I took a screen shot of my predicted AI in 4 weeks time (257w)… 2 hours later I open the app and it has dropped to 250w. In between I’d done a 75 min zone 2 which I marked as easy. Surely this is a bug?
At least you added some TSS to account for it. Try this, one evening it predicts a number, I wake up the next morning and it’s dropped. So is it reading my HRV from my Garmin watch? Interpreting my dreams. 
Sorry, forgot to add TrainerRoad
I’m beginning to wonder whether my HR is too high so it somehow knows i’m drinking too much? eating poorly? having bad sleep?
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Was the Z2 ride your prescribed workout for the day, or was it something alternate?
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The prescribed workout
I’ve had rides that were prescribed and completed and rated as TR expected and had drops as well (not by as much though) and also not sure why. Heart rate is the only thing I can think of because of having poorer cooling but it really didn’t feel any harder. I’d be very curious what TR has to say about this. To be honest, I’m not sure if they even know why the system makes the changes.
My HR a about 70% of max which I assume is ok for z2
I would assume so as well but is it up from previous rides of similar intensity? If it is that might be triggering a drop.
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Slightly lower than my last few z2 rides. It’s so impenetrable
Maybe tag someone from the TR team. That drop seems like a mistake to me.
@eddie can you shed any light on this please?
It’s so far out I won’t worry about it yet.
You just got an FTP detection, I would see what it does after you complete the first of workouts at your new FTP.
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Now THIS is the likely issue!
@Neil_Partridge going back to your original screenshots, the first one shows that your next FTP detection is in 28 days. This would mean that you had JUST done your most recent FTP detection not long before taking this screencap. The second screencap (the one showing the lowered FTP prediction, shows (in the bit just above your revised FTP, that you did your prescribed 75 minute Z2 workout in Zwift.
If you look through some of the other threads in the Forum you will find some others that show the following:
- TR sends your prescribed workout, based on your current FTP, to Zwift at some point early in the morning (likely before you wake up).
- If you then perform an FTP detection at some point after waking, and the prescribed workout does not change, TR does not re-send the workout (with revised power targets) to Zwift.
So, I’m guessing the reason for the reduction is that while you actually did the prescribed workout, it was actually done based on a lower FTP value. (I’m guessing the FTP detection you did this morning increased your FTP.) If you look at your workout summary in TR, and compare it to the one in the workout library, I’m guessing you’ll find that the ALs are lower in the one you did
How to avoid this in the future (presuming that TR doesn’t implement a fix to re-send workouts following an FTP detection)
- Edit your workout to change it from TR Inside, to TR Outside, and then back to TR Inside. This should cause a re-sync with Zwift
- Always do your FTP detection on a day when you don’t have a workout. TR now only sends workouts to Zwift on the day-of, so if the FTP is changed on an off day, the updated FTP will be used when the workout is sent to Zwift the following day.
- Just do the workout in the TR app/player, where the workout does get updated immediately upon triggering an FTP detection.
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For you (and some others)
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You’re right re the sequence (all in same day):
- Midnight - Workouts updated and pushed to app/zwift?
- Accepted new AI FTP (increase from 252w to 253w) at 2am
- Rode prescribed z2 workout 1305-1420
- First screenshot of predicted FTP 1343 (whilst doing the ride!)
- Second screenshot of predicted FTP at 1552
The z2 workout was generated when I was a 252w rider, rather than a 253w rider, so let’s say the whole workout was 1w “too low”. Is that not within the allowable flex for any workout? I was in ERG so didn’t stray far from target.
I’m also surprised that riding a zone 2 workout set under my old FTP had the effect of dropping my FTP prediction by such a large amount.
I’d be happy to take a closer look and share what I find. Is that cool with you?
IMO: this “prediction” is worthless. I’ve been through more than two cycles of this. It starts with an insane prediction. For me, first time around, it predicted a 15 watt improvement in 28 days, which is completely insane. As the days ticked by, it progressively lowered it’s prediction each day, until finally I ended up with a 1 or 2 watt improvement despite doing all the workouts. I consider that new “prediction” feature not only useless, but counterproductive because it leads to a feeling of demoralization.
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Yes please, thankyou.
Yes.
It’s obviously not happening to everyone but for those that it is happening to it would be nice to get it fixed or figure out what is causing the wildly optimistic predictions no?
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