I want to share an update on a high-priority item our team is working on related to unexpected AI FTP values.
Athletes with scheduled outside workouts may see their predicted FTP drop after successfully completing the workout.
We’re working on a fix for this as we speak, but reports of this issue can be complex to investigate, so please share any instances of this using the form below rather than posting in the forum.
Reports in the forum have a way of getting buried and lost. Please use this form so we can keep track of your report, test against it, and let you know when a fix is ready.
A lot of people are posting about this, so if you see others post about it, please point them to the form above.
Today I completed the second to last workout before my next detection. I rated the vo2 workout “hard” as predicted. My AI ftp prediction immediately dropped by 6 watts.
I had a weird one this morning. Started an outside workout but due to time and other issues I quit the workout and just started riding back home. Completed ride was 2 hours vs 2:15.
When my ride uploaded my ftp detection went from 336 to 333 but then I when removed the matched workout from my ride it went up to 345.
My ftp detection did decrease on Thursday after a completed workout as well but I can’t remember the exact numbers.
The first month or so of AI worked well but the last couple of months has seen my predicted FTP reduce to what was efectively my sweet spot until recently. U am still riding consistantly doing some but not all workouts and riding mostly outside. It is hard to have any confodence on the predictions late;y, maybe I have to go back to FTP tests.
Does the AI FTP detection only works if you do them inside? I am riding lately outside, long endurance rides but my FTP keeps decreasing.. So, does the outside ride being ignored by the AIFTP detection software or? Only scheduled workout counts? Or any ride? Like group rides or??
I think AI FTP Prediction is supposed to work with every ride you do and upload to the program. I’ve seen a gradual decline in my prediction due to more rides outside and less structure. More volume outside in group / solo riding and sort of skipping my rest week (no real intensity all week but a huge ride at the end of the week)
The FTP drops were nothing huge so I wasn’t too worried about it until I jumped on my trainer to do a structured ride. I completed it and rated it “very hard” and saw my prediction drop 18 watts at the beginning of my second week.
Am I getting punished for not taking an actual rest week and increasing volume too much? I can’t help but want to ride outside with friends more and try to at least maintain my FTP.
Sort of the opposite from what the titles indicates. I’m wondering if my FTP prediction was too high based on outside riding. I was consistently doing one ride a week inside without any crazy changes in prediction until now.
When you referenced your FTP going down by 18 watts, are you talking about back in January?
That’s when we launched TR AI and started using an updated FTP model..
It looks like your FTP dipped a bit in April, but is back up at a pretty good figure. I think that’s solid given the very little amount of structured work you’re doing.
The prediction dropped by 18 watts on Tuesday (26th) after completing the workout. I was predicted to hit 314 at the beginning of this phase. It slowly dropped to about 309 over the course of the first week. Now I’m predicted to be at 291 which is only 2 watts above my current FTP.
Doesn’t feel like it to me. I am in my recovery week with the FTP prediction at the end of this week. My prediction dropped 10w just doing easy rides outside this week during my recovery week!
I have noticed previously that the FTP prediction dropped quite a bit in the final week so maybe this is just normal? For me it seems to give some crazy prediction and then the final week it drops a lot.
For reference it originally predicted a 10% increase a month ago from 314 to 345. This was never going to happen and it did slowly drop. But even last week the prediction was still at 333. I did skip one of the weekend 90 minute interval sessions last weekend and did a 2:45 endurance ride instead so expected some sort of drop from 333 but at the start of this recovery week it was still predicting 329. That’s now dropped to 319 after doing a couple of easy endurance rides that I had scheduled. They were done outside and maybe it didn’t like how I did them.
I had a 90 minute endurance ride to do on Wednesday and a 1 hour endurance ride to do on Thursday. On Wendesday I rode too and from a local lake and did an open water swim in the middle but I did ride for 1 hour 45. On thursday I did a running track session and rode too and from the track (~50 minutes total). Obviously I didn’t do the workouts exactly how TR planned them but a 10w drop from these 2 days seems a bit odd.
Iirc the outside workout bug is in the over inflated Prediction. It tracks down as you get closer to Detection. So it’s nothing to do with it being an easy outdoor workout or how you executed it.
If you do regular outdoor workouts I would be guiding my schedule by the Custom Planner and Fatigue Management - not Prediction.
It always seems to be the last week where it tanks though. It’s very strange to me. I don’t really use it to guide me and ultimately the workouts themselves feel fine so I don’t think it’s hugly a problem.
Interesting to see this thread - I just sent an email to support on a similar issue this morning. My prediction had been a couple watt increase all month. Struggled with one workout, prediction turned to a drop - then went flat with my final endurance workout. Then oddly with no further workout (yesterday was an off day) today’s prediction was down 2 watts for the month. Also noticed that RPE survey entries up or down one moved the prediction late on the month I’ve not noticed that before. Generally if a workout is predicted to be hard/very hard rating it either makes no difference in the prediction late in the month, but seems to now?
