Agree. There are going to be larger changes when you are changing measurement systems. I wouldn’t expect that to always be the case once you are in a new system.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think there’s no work to it. But they’ve already done the first part of it by not needing FTP as part of their system (Per Nate they kept it because of it being a large bridge to cross). That part becomes mostly a UI challenge. I just think moving in this direction would make it a better overall product.
And I don’t know why people get bent out of shape when someone suggests companies do things to paint themselves in a positive light or add a little “spin” from time to time. I work with vendors every day in my day job, and literally 100% do this in some way, and TR certainly isn’t immune to it, especially when Nate’s said at least some users are going to see increases.
I’ll reserve my judgment until I have full access to the new model, but it’s always been dead on for me in the past and hope it doesn’t change.
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I’d call it Workout Baseline Power. It’s a figure used to calculate how much power you need to exert for easy/moderate/tough workouts. If it’s set too high you fail workouts, if it’s set too low you don’t progress.
That would still have the problems that come with just using ftp to base workouts off of though. It seems like tr is moving past that with how they have talked about the update which is a huge improvement imo.
We updated it yesterday to model your fitness a bit differently so you’ll have a lower FTP than before. We ran this by the beta group and the the FTP felt right for most people.
We’re also going to predict your 20 and 60 minute power after this release settles down.
That should help you see the relationship between the three.
I said this in another thread, but we’ve had this debate every time we release a new test: 20-minute test, ramp test, AI FTP Detection, new AI FTP Detection. Each time, the previous test is great, and the new test is bad 
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The AI is still stepping you incrementally forward when you get an FTP change.
It’s not like if you go from 300 to 320, you’re going from 2x20 @300 to 2x20 @320. For those who don’t like it, please report back the wattage jump for a similar interval length that you don’t like. I think that puts a clear picture of it.
Also, we’ve seen lots of people not think they can do their new ftp + PL combo, but then they can!
And finally, if you don’t like your FTP, you can lower it, and the AI will still pick similar workouts (probably longer intervals and/or less rest between intervals), and you’ll probably have to do longer workouts.
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I have always agreed with TrainerRoad that the discussion “is TRs FTP the REAL FTP” is useless.
I am totally on board with “The FTP value which makes TR to select the right workout is the correct one”
That being said, today was the first time I declined a FTP adjustment (300→324).
I need a number which lets TR select the best workout AND which gives me a feeling how my fitness is improving. The last use case for FTP is not fulfilled any longer if you have such arbitrary changes!
this number clearly says nothing about my improvement. I did clearly not improve from 280 to 324 in one month
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Just found this - I am sorry but this is ridiculous-this number has lost every meaning 
It is either that or I will have to think about my UCI career at the end of the year
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I’m In the beta group
Previous TR FTP (December 4, 2025): 247
Updated TR FTP (January 4, 2026): 246 (not sure if this is the new algorithm or not but TSS had dropped a bit so believable)
Strava Estimated FTP (Power Curve Graph): 248
Intervals ICU: 241 (42/90 days), 248 (all-time)
So they all seem pretty consistent..with intervals.icu being the most ‘strict’ about having seeing a workout at that level in order to bump up their eFTP.
What gets me most excited is that TR told me today if I follow the training plan, I’ll have an FTP at 261 in a mere 23 days..that would be by far my highest ever, as I was at TR FTP 250 before Unbound last year..so not sure if I agree that is fully achievable, but will certain give it a go!
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I’m having the opposite problem:
I get an 8% decrease after using TR’s AI FTP for the past year? Based on what? Do I accept this new FTP? This seems like a crazy drop to me, especially after not missing any workouts for a year, and doing everything the platform suggests. I just detected a week ago and it gave me the 340 (which was down 1 watt from the previous AI detection, which I expected since I decreased the intensity pretty heavily).
EDIT: I’m guessing this is likely related to a Monday workout I did where I struggled after about 2 weeks of taking it relatively easy. I detrain FAST if I don’t keep up the intensity (which is why I hate taking time off or going on vacation). I also retrain within a couple of days and get back to where I was. Wednesday’s workout was largely the same as Monday’s and I did just fine. This is a HUGE drop, essentially erasing 2 years’ worth of gains.
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Something something trust but verify.
If you can’t hold the number for at least 40+ minutes when fresh it’s not your FTP.
TR seems to be moving away from using FTP as the basis for intervals thankfully but if people want to know if their FTP is “correct” or not there is really only one way to know for sure.
If one just wants to track their progress fitness wise the PDC has far more info than a single number like FTP.
Or use race results, group ride, segments etc as a benchmarking for your fitness progression 
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If I use the new FTP number, the workout for today wouldn’t be what it’s supposed to be. And I’ll rate it as easy. Which is fine, I’ve done that before and I know it adjusts. But that’s a WILD drop just to make it recalibrate upward close to where I’m at now anyway.
Update: I trusted the system and accepted the FTP decrease. It changed the type of workout I was supposed to do and while it wasn’t quite as easy as I was anticipating, it was still “moderate.” Next week has changed, as well, and it looks quite a bit easier than it had initially created for me.
I guess I didn’t realize this was going to essentially reset my training. Very unexpected.
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My TR calendar/FTP has just updated with the new functionality… FTP dropped from 249 to 248w (less then a week after last AI FTP but I don’t mind that… I assume new AI calculation going on?), but the prediction is if I do all 18 workouts in next 28 days…. Drum roll… it’ll go up to… 249!!! That seems like paltry gains considering I’m only 3 months into structured training plan (having only done the odd workout on Zwift previously).
I’ve also put on 2kg (muscle? Creatine triggered water retention?) so my w/kg is dropping.
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What phase of training are you in the next 4 weeks? If it’s a specialty phase, I think TR usually/often sees those as intended to “sharpen the blade” not to build FTP.
2 weeks of base and 2 weeks of build. Maybe 1w is ok!
So 3 loading weeks and a recovery week. Hmmm.
If the hard workouts feel appropriately hard, and the easy rides are nice and easy, keep plugging away, I guess. Progress isn’t linear.
To be honest the odd watt up and down is neither here nor there … i’m keeping fit, working hard … it just made me chuckle
If you’re consistently enjoying the work, that’s a big win. 
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I agree on the importance of an accurate FTP for TSS, IF, NP, Pacing outside, etc. but I think there’s still a big “If” here. It may not end up being all that different, if at all for some people.
With @Nate_Pearson ‘s latest comments yesterday about making adjustments to the FTP algorithm in TR AI based on beta feedback, I’m hopeful it will be accurate, real, and still useful in this way. Especially if they also move towards including predicted 20 and 60 min powers that you can use to validate (Big, big fan of an actual power curve based on actual efforts, combined with predicted powers)
As much as we’re all antsy about this (To be honest, I’m procrastinating 6-7 hours on the trainer this weekend) we should probably give them the benefit of the doubt until it’s live and we can test it for ourselves.
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But they aren’t primarily selling an AI FTP system, they are selling a training system. I think with the recent tweaks though it’s pretty similar to the past. But with any estimate of a biological function there is going to be error.
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That makes sense. However, I don’t race and I don’t do competitive group rides. FTP is kind of all I have to go on when it comes to gauging my progress. It feels like the new system is just asking me to evaluate my progress based on how individual workouts feel and that’s . . . highly variable.
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