I started using TR again in Dec 25 to start improving again and I saw an initial increase in FTP but it has since started going down again. Yesterday the AI prediction went down to 220w which was also the same day I performed a Zwift FTP test which put it at 208w. My recent history is:
I had a two week holiday on March 20th so the April 16th drop is not unexpected. There was also a drop before Dec 22 as my turbo broke causing 2 weeks of less training (outdoor only).
My FTP last year was around 260W, Intervals.icu gave an eFTP of 261w based on an outdoor ride (8 mins at 300w) but since then it has been in decline. I was also Zwift racing at around 3.0 w/kg (240w), these races have typically moved my FTP and FTP tests have never done as well. My numbers are higher when there’s someone to chase and I’m trying to back to those numbers.
I’ve made my TR profile public. I’m following an improve climbing plan with some workouts swapped for ZRL races but the biggest outlier is the Saturday group ride which ends up with a lot more TSS (300+) than TR plans. These long group rides are a constant and I moved up a pace group last June.
I’ve used Claude to analyse what I could be doing wrong and its summary is:
- TSS and CTL are similar to my Aug 25 peak, rides and hours are the same excluding Dec gap.
- Intensity has shifted into the grey zone, Saturday group rides have become sweet spot, which isn’t as productive for a punchy profile.
- FTP may be lagging as other factors look good.
Its suggesting:
- Do a FTP Test as AI prediction could be wrong, this turned out worse at 208w which is due to my punchy profile and to set TR to 210w anyway.
- No quality bike rides on strength days (Tues/Thurs), I had been following keep the hard days hard with 2 TR workouts on these days.
- Single workout on Wednesday focusing on V02 intervals
- Friday night Z2 60mins to prime legs, I’ve always avoided this to keep “fresh” for Saturday
- Continue group ride as a hard session
- Sunday, progressively longer Z2 (I have a 2 day 160km per day in August)
- Monday, easy Z2 or rest
I’ve been strength training Tues/Thurs at 6am for years and in general for decades. I can’t move these other than skipping them. My current strength 1RMs are lower than last years peak FTP. I was pushing my numbers up early in the year but I’ve backed off since March and could back off more. I’m targeting the TR guidelines for 80kg so squat at 100kg and deadlift 120kg, 1RMs from earlier this year are 125kg squat and 160kg deadlift.
Claudes suggestions make some sense but could equally be AI garbage. TR is predicting FTP decline but not changing anything to correct it. I don’t really know how to program the strength training and the group rides correctly or to plan for a 2day event using TR so I’d really appreciate any advice.