FTP Drop After Base & a Break - Accept, Reject, or Average?

New to TR after getting back on the bike for a first time in a decade over the summer (outside till winter). Initially started a training plan back in November and landed an FTP of 207. Workouts were tough but doable for the most part.

Fast forward and I was traveling for new years and ended up with Covid rightafter (not a bad case, seemed to stay in my sinuses) so was off about 3 weeks. Next time on the bike was a Ramp Test post first block based on my schedule and I ended up at a 174 which seems way too low. I actually tested FTP with another program before summer riding outside (off for years) and it was about the same.

In a fit of disappointment I declined the change and figured I’d just get back to it tomorrow with the plan but I’m wondering if I should set the new one at least for the next block or maybe average the two out.


I would accept and see how the workouts feel. If they are really to easy you could just adjust up. Doing workouts on a way to high FTP is just a recipe for extra disappointment.


I too would drop. Keep in mind you are dealing with ranges in the workout, as well. So feel free to move up and down within the range too.

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  • Based on what?

3 weeks off the bike with no training, then adding on sickness are clear indicators that a drop is more than likely, and the roughly 16% delta there makes perfect sense to me.

  • Same as what exactly? Context is lacking here.

The test result is the test result. I understand a drop sucks and none of us like it. But unless you know something was off in your testing (bad sleep, under-fueled, etc.) you are best to start right where you tested.

If there was a real issue with your test, correct it and retest.


Based on the workouts at 207 were doable albeit challenging. Seems like a fairly large drop but maybe I’m just not informed, as I mentioned this is a bit new to me.

The 174 was around what my FTP was before a summer of riding. Just seems odd that I’d fall all the way back to my starting level in 3 weeks.

Again, this is new to me so why I’m asking.

You nuked your reply, but here is a worthwhile article on fitness loss over time.

I would also accept and let AT figure it out. Rate the difficulty of the workouts honestly and it will have you dialed in within about a week.

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Gotta learn more about this forum too apparently, hah. Used to the old VBB days of forums where a copy/paste got you that broken up quote.

Anyways, good article and it makes sense, surprised it drops that much that quickly but fingers crossed there’s a quick increase on this side. I just adjusted my FTP and we’ll let AT work it’s magic till the next test.

Illness might have beat me up a bit more than I thought as I now have developed a post-workout cough (didn’t have a cough through the illness) so maybe there are still some things going on there.

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I would take that hint seriously, if I were you.

Also, it can be a fine, and difficult to find, line between “I feel fine and I think I’m recovered from it” and “I am actually 100% recovered from it” (“It” not just being covid but any type of illness/injury). So maybe the detraining dropped you 15 watts and the rest was due to not being fully recovered from the disease. As I said, can be very hard to tell.

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  • There is/was a bot option that walked you through the ways to use various functions in this Discourse forum world. Short of that, I use plenty of Google search with “discourse” and whatever I want to do. Their support files are quite good and informative.

Yup, important to not ignore that. Yet another worthwhile article for the other half of this discussion:

Don’t let your ego get in the way of your work.

Accept the change, and build it back. If you think it was in error, retest.

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