AI FTP Prediction - value changes 24hrs after workout despite having rest day as prescribed

Apologies if this has been discussed specifically elsewhere.

I am following a simple TR determined Build Phase plan, 3.5 hours a week for 2 months.

My FTP dropped from 252 W to 242 W when the new software dropped which I gather is not unusual…..

Yesterday I completed a Threshold workout ( TSS , IF and kJ appear correct ) , RPE Hard as predicted and my Predicted FTP went down 1 watt to 249 W. Maybe a little surprised but I’m assuming some sophisticated HR analysis explains this?

What is slightly more baffling is today ( a rest day ) I checked to see what tomorrow’s workout would entail and the AI FTP Prediction went into action and dropped my Prediction another watt to 248 W.

Has anybody seen similar changes on allocated rest days and is there a rational explanation?

Hey @toucanjunky :slight_smile:

The AI FTP Prediction is like the weather forecast. Our fitness fluctuates and so does FTP. It will get more and more accurate as you get closer to the prediction date so I wouldn’t fixate too much on the numbers, but rather as an indicator of where your fitness is trending.

You might want to check out this thread. It has some thoughts about what you seeing. What I like about your approach is that it comes in with curiosity not frustration!

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Thanks for your reply, and thanks for the thread suggestion. It will be interesting to see if the AI FTP Predictions “settle down” to something more intuitive…..