I don’t have any planned workouts. I have been using TrainNow to suggest a workout. Over the course of this training block I have steadily seen my predicted FTP converge with my last FTP measurement. Predicted has of course been lower than current due to lack of planned workouts.
Yesterday my predicted FTP was 263w, 1 w below my last measurement.
This morning I completed a TrainNow recommended VO2 Max workout, completed it successfully and rated it same as the expected rating (very hard). But my predicted FTP dropped. I cannot understand why that would be the case?
You seem to know the answer to you question. Predicted is going to look at current work AND future workouts as part of the prediction. If you don’t have any workouts on your calendar, it is likely going to assume that FTP will decrease.
I didn’t say that I was using it, just trying to make sense of the numbers, which don’t make any sense.
After my last FTP update, predicted FTP was about 20 points down. After every workout, the number has edged up, to the point where it is close to my previous FTP. Just curious as to why a strong workout as my most recent history would negatively affect the prediction, which is stated as being history+plan.
The number is the number that it thinks will best drive improvements for a plan. It is strongly correlated with the abstract number that is one’s FTP. A ramp test is also strongly correlated with that number.
Just one watt, but I get it, easy to wonder “what happened?!”
Curious, do you train with a heart rate sensor typically? Was your a bit higher (sees it as sign of you pushed maybe to edge of your limits) or low (slow reacting/low→ fatigue?→ hard to get gains in coming weeks)
Otherwise it also maybe didn’t like the workout in the scheme of what you have been doing. And/or you were just a bit low here and there on watts or unstable… was it graded low on the various zone score?
I agree with some of the others in that it’s kind of hard to analyze predictions when there isn’t any future data to reference.
Each time you complete a workout or alter your training, we recheck your prediction, and even though you completed a hard workout today, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to increase your prediction. It’s pretty complicated.
I agree that it seems a bit strange for your prediction to drop after doing work that wasn’t planned, and I’ll report this to the team, but for the best results, I’d probably use FTP Prediction alongside a training plan.
The reason why the prediction increases over time is because you have no plan. So in the beginning, it sees 4 weeks of no planned work and expects your fitness to drop. Near the end of the prediction month, it only sees a week or less of no planned rides, and predicts a minimal fitness loss.
As to why one ride drops your predicted FTP by 1 W, I could imagine a bunch of scenarios. Maybe the last workout was harder than it expected for you, maybe it’s just a rounding error or general uncertainty in the prediction, maybe there’s a small bug.
Did make me smile last night, have plan in my calender, but I did some easy unplanned yoga last night, it dropped my FTP detection by 1w, I deleted the yoga from TR and it went back up (my bible of workouts is somewhere else), makes me think that if I stopped doing yoga twice a week I’d be flying , don’t care and not bothered, but does feel like AI finds the week before detection finding excuses to reduce the prediction
Turned prediction off again, it’s encouraging me not to do stuff I enjoy
It was recorded as Yoga, it shows up in intervals and garmin connect as yoga, all my other yoga shows as yoga … going to do that same session again this evening … see what happens
I came back to TR with announcement of AI FTP prediction. My FTP measured with Ramp test today is 155. I made a plan to for 2 months Road - Increasing FTP. It is predicting I will have exactly the same FTP of 155 after 16 workouts which TR created to Increase my FTP.
@eddie I did my Yoga workout this evening (unplanned) and it DID NOT adjust my FTP afterwards, it was also recorded on a Garmin Fenix and appears the same as the workout on the 14th in Garmin Connect, it also appears as a Yoga in TR
, don’t care and not bothered, but does feel like AI finds the week before detection finding excuses to reduce the prediction
