AI FTP Detection Too High

My AI FTP detection bumped my FTP from 233 to 293. I suspected this was too high since I can only ride in the 290s for around 5 minutes. However, I’ve been listening to all the information about the new TR system and how FTP isn’t really FTP but more of a training metric. So I decided to give it a shot on the General Fitness plan. The first workout today was Tallac -3, with 3 sweet spot intervals in the 250s/260s. I was only able to complete one interval.

For context, I have been on TR for about 1 year. For several months, I did not enable auto FTP detection because I wanted to advance through the progression levels. I suspected my FTP may go up because of this, but overall, the workouts based on an FTP of 233 felt like they were in the right ballpark.

I want to use the new AI prediction system, but I cannot complete workouts with an FTP of 293. So my questions are:

1.) Is there a mistake with where my FTP is set?

2.) If there’s not a mistake, should I just drop the intensity for every workout instead of setting a different FTP?

I get that the system will eventually drop my FTP, but I would rather not spend a month repeatedly failing workouts to get there.

Thanks

Have you emailed support? That does look a bit whacky. You can always manually input an FTP or as you said dial down workout intensity until the next detection, which would hopefully get you back on track

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We had a very long discussion on the topic here: Any downside to manual FTP adjustment with the new AI system? - #242 by Helvellyn

Several of us decided to manually adjust down our FTP, myself included. My training has been much better since then and I’m quite happy I did it.

You lose the FTP prediction in the meantime, but for me personally that’s not an issue.

Edit: the manual reduction was recommended by the TR team in a couple of our cases, so just want to say that it wasn’t a decision we made completely on our own. But you can read through the history there.

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Thanks, I will email support

Thanks, I will check out that thread

I have had similar experience , i reckon my FTP is 275ish and it said 294 and vo2 workouts recommended would have been impossible.

My scenario is slightly different in that i’ve only just signed up for TrainerRoad / Set the start of training plan -3 months as advised as I had already done a lot of training / base training (that was loaded in by TR from Strava)

I wonder if that means my adaptations /FTP based on my training / history are below the average :frowning: !

I’ve manually set for now, wonder if it would be better to do a FTP / Ramp test which i haven’t done for about 3 months

cheers

Andy.

Odd. It should have set your VO2 Max workouts based on how it’s already seen you performing similar workouts or power durations.

There’s a pretty wide spread between individual athletes between the power they can hold at FTP compared to the power they can work at for shorter durations.

Yeah. I have mainly doing 30/30 V02 Workouts and random short efforts like that when on Zwift . Ive always struggled with “proper” Vo2 workouts where 3-5 minutes

I’ve noticed a drop in my ability to hold Z4/5 for longer periods in January (v December)

Have actually done more time in Z4/5 in Jan v December but gut feel is cos its less continuous time in those Zones in Jan

And am 57 so muscle prob wastes away quicker :frowning: / maybe should do some proper strength work

cheers

Andy

Edit : had wrong months jpeg attached / fixed now

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Hey @ptsouth97!

Let me look into this because something looks off with your SS levels.

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I would be curious about the model’s SS level’s functioning for me also. On my calendar, I can just now see the first SS workout since I joined the beta group. Combine a healthy AI FTP bump (277→292) with the planned workout (Galena) being +2.2 increase is PL makes me question it.

For my threshold workouts, the increases AIFTP combined with reduced PL’s to make the power and duration of the intervals harder, but as Nate described, but not unreasonably dissimilar . The power and duration Galena workout is asking of me doesn’t have a recent parallel for me. User name is jonedwards.

I’m new here, so a bit slow to chime in as many may have discussed this before. But I have the exact opposite problem. Signed up to TR earlier in the week and it gave me a AI generated FTP number that is ridiculously low.

I know I can adjust the number to what I think it might be, but didn’t want to mess with the AI, it is smarter than me after all?

Was happy to let it fix itself after it figured out its mistake, but I brought my kids out for a MTB ride earlier (my 12 year old girl can hold her own and all that), but it was just a handy spin but the AI has figured out that I how need a recovery day and has cancelled tomorrows group ride in the calendar!

I do have a week old ramp test ftp (50% higher that the AI generated one) I can stick in, but I kind of wanted to let the AI do its thing?

The onboarding process gives a ridiculously low starting number if you are fit and TR does not see any recent (last few weeks/months) activities with power data. (E.g. the December onboarding FTP for me is repeatedly ~150 W instead of 250-260 W; I do not have many activities logged in Autumn but consider myself to be reasonably fit.) I suggest you take ramp test FTP number as a starting point and let AI take over from that.

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Thanks, that makes sense.

I had some illness related issues that kept me off the bike of a bit and when I came back I didn’t bother with tracking rides for a while, so my data for the last few months was a bit hit and miss. I’ll go with ramp test ftp number until the AI figures out a more sensible one.

Hey @ptsouth97, we took a look and responded to your Support ticket, but I will post the answer here as well for visibility:

Support Answer:
We took another look at your recent training, the AI FTP Detection increase, and how things have unfolded since then. Overall, this looks less like an FTP issue and more like a short-term adjustment period driven by a dense stretch of hard training, which you’re already starting to move through.

FTP Increase

Leading into the AI FTP Detection, you were completing very high-level Threshold and Sweet Spot workouts at your previous FTP, and they weren’t feeling overly taxing. That’s typically when we’d expect TrainerRoad to reassess FTP upward, since your training was showing more capacity than your old number reflected.

For example:

  • January 22 – Threshold workout (Level 10)

    • 4x18-minute intervals
    • 244W Normalized Power
    • Rated Moderate
  • January 24 – Sweet Spot workout (Level 10.3)

    • 3x25-minute intervals with hard starts
    • 225W Normalized Power
    • Rated Moderate

Long, demanding workouts like these feeling controlled is a good indicator that your sustainable power had improved, which is one of the reasons why the AI FTP Detection moved your FTP to 293.

What likely made things feel harder afterward

Shortly after that update, you took on a couple of very demanding efforts during what was scheduled as a lighter recovery period:

  • January 27 – Zwift race
    • 266W Normalized Power for 41 minutes
    • Rated Very Hard
  • January 28 – Zwift race
    • 271W Normalized Power for 44 minutes
    • Rated Very Hard

Back-to-back efforts like this can compress a lot of stress into a short window. TrainerRoad does factor recent training load into its recommendations, but when intensity is stacked very tightly, some fatigue can linger longer than expected and subtly change how the next few workouts feel.

These races are also pretty good indications that your FTP had increased too!

Putting Tallac -3 in context

  • February 5 – Tallac -3 (Sweet Spot)
    • 3x15-minute intervals
    • 253W Normalized Power (planned for the whole workout)
    • This was the workout ended early due to intensity

Relative to your prior Threshold work and sustained race efforts, this was a reasonable progression (especially when you compare the Normalized Power of pre and post FTP change).

While TrainerRoad was already accounting for your recent training, we think the combination of hard racing and limited recovery during a recovery week likely nudged this workout from “challenging but manageable” into “harder than intended” on that day. That points more toward residual fatigue than the FTP itself being fundamentally off.

The encouraging part is that we can see you’ve since successfully completed your most recent Threshold workout , which is a great sign. That’s a clear step in the right direction and suggests you’re settling in as fatigue clears and your training stabilizes around the new FTP.

What TrainerRoad is Doing Now

TrainerRoad uses both struggles and successes to keep your training aligned. That tougher Sweet Spot session helped guide upcoming workouts to a more manageable place, and your recent successful Threshold workout reinforces that you’re moving back toward consistent, productive training at the right wattages.

Answers to Your Questions

  1. Is there a mistake with my FTP?
    There’s nothing here that suggests a mistake. Your recent training supports the current FTP when fatigue is under control.
  2. Should I lower intensity for every workout instead of changing FTP?
    We wouldn’t recommend lowering intensity across the board or manually changing FTP right now. Letting TrainerRoad adjust individual workouts is the best way to balance recovery and progress without giving up the fitness you’ve built.

Overall this looks like a normal adjustment period following an FTP increase combined with a very dense block of intensity, rather than a fundamental mismatch between your abilities and the training. The fact that you’re already completing Threshold work again is exactly what we want to see.

If you’d like help planning Zwift races so they fit more smoothly with recovery weeks going forward, just let us know. We’re happy to help.

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Hi @Caro.Gomez-Villafane, this was a great explanation and walk-though. I have a general question on this topic of “AIFTP detection too high”.

Has the TR team tried to equate how long of a duration you could/should be able hold for your AIFTP?

I assume the functional part of the definition must have some sort of anchor, but not what the classical FTP has been in the past. For myself, I’m not sure if I could hold my AIFTP for longer than 10 minutes! I’m just looking for some general guidance on the AIFP setting. Thanks!

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