Was riding with no plan, but riding daily recommended workouts.
21 Jan, AI determined FTP .: 242
18 Feb., AI determined FTP: 229
18 Mar., AI determined FTP: 226 (I left it at 229 as it was so similar, and I wasn’t failing workouts).
25 Mar., Started Road-Increasing FTP plan
Today: Now at week 5 of 12: Road-Increasing FTP Plan (No failed workouts).
Today: Projection of FTP in 16 days: 222
I’m not understanding why there’s a steady decline of FTP.
What am I missing or doing incorrectly?
If you just started the plan on March 25 it’s been 5 days of that plan.
I would wait and see how things shake out over a month or so before worrying too much.
Has your overall volume trended up or down? What does it look like in the coming weeks?
5 weeks of that plan (vs. 5 days). I need to recheck my calendar and correct the date in my 1st post. But it’s been 5 weeks
And the projection is a lower FTP.
No failed workouts.
Not sure how to look at a volume metric . Volume has increased from volume 5 weeks prior mostly from following the plan.
Is your volume the same, increasing or decreasing? (Compared to when you had a 240ftp vs the projected 222)
The projection is just that, and will almost definitely change up/down depending on workout compliance and RPE. From what we have seen the RPE is pretty influential on the projection.
Can you post your calendar or make it public?
It usuallly seems like these threads have a couple of explanations:
I have set “public”. Is there another step?
Can you post a link to your calendar then?
Is there a resource that describes steps I would take to do that? All I saw was to make my profile public.
The ratings I submit have been in line with the status bars of other’s ratings for the workouts. Hard ones are hard, easy ones are easy.
And believe I have observed yellow and red day notices appropriately.
I am not a coach, but it seems like the AI is unhappy with the “demanding” approach and the level of volume that you are currently doing. I would try playing with the sliders for each zone and see what the FTP prediction does. It may think that you are not recovering sufficiently.
Here is his calendar:
It looks like your ratio of Very Hard to Hard for Threshold is 2:1 which will slow FTP ramp. Also looks like you have a lot of moderate rides that I would have expected to be easy.
You’re adding a bunch of riding not on the plan, and the software is telling you it’s not optimal for raising your ftp. It might be good for increasing fitness in other ways, but the AI doesn’t think it’s helping get your ftp up. Maybe it’s right, maybe it isn’t, but I do think that’s what it’s trying to tell you.
Also, doing easy “endurance” rides at .77 isn’t really easy endurance. It’s endurance+ or low tempo imo, and while it IS a good thing generally, TR isn’t going to love it when it isn’t part of the plan.
Looks like a lot of junk volume in there (added 30min workouts that aren’t a part of the plan). Granted they are very low TSS but it all adds up, it might be having a negative influence on the AI’s perception of your recovery. The fact that you rated a couple of these low TSS 30min rides as Moderate is definitely a signal that you are under recovered. Those should feel like an absolute doddle if you are progressing properly.
You might try scaling your training approach back from Demanding to Balanced. A lot of people progress better with less training stress. I know I do.
Get some RPE ratings in for those as yet unrated outdoor rides. 
Just to remove one more variable.
I’ll just post here what has worked for me.
I was in the same “keeps decreasing” situation as many. After analysing and understanding that the ERG modes were getting me bellow the prescribed power for the intervals (Zwift and non Zwift), I started doing (at least) the critical intervals on resistance mode on the TrainerRoad desktop app and making sure to to them at least equal or above the prescribed pwr. Since I usually am pretty more confortable with shorter intervals and VO2 workouts, I rated the workouts as Moderate/Hard.
Since doing this, I started seeing a big jump on predicted AI FTP and reverting the previous tendency. This was key for me.
Note: If I want I can still do Zwift at the same time as my workouts, but I just do them as before the Zwift integration feature: separate readings / both apps running. TR minimal size on bottom and Zwift on top.
Hope this helps.
note2: this is probably something wrong with my TacX Neo2T smart Trainer, but since I don’t have the time or mental energy to debug it for now, I won’t. I only made sure I had it updated to the latest version. The Assioma Favero Uno power meter pedals as well.
Yes.
@AaaJay
Go back to a balanced approach, accept the recommended number of rides and hard days. Removal all non-plan rides/activities from your calendar in the next four weeks.
Then tell us the predicted ftp.
Hey @AaaJay 
Most everyone is right on the money here: more doesn’t always mean better.
I would also try changing your training approach to Balanced to see what happens. I am not sure if this is the volume (training days) the plan originally scheduled for you, but I would also play around with how many training days a week you have and see it’s effects on the AI FTP Prediction.
Nate goes over possible situations here:
I see like 5-6 rides from march without RPE /some of them 2+ hours/. I am not sure if this helps AI to adjust something, just guessing.