Has anyone had a predicted FTP increase that seemed unrealistic, yet they achieved?
In my case, AI FTP has me currently at 235 - I have scheduled an Increasing FTP plan to commence from next week and it is estimating i should be at 280 in 4 weeks time (will only be 3 weeks of the training plan).
Not sure if this plays a role in it, but I was around 280 at the start of November and suffered an injury which has limited my riding time for the last 4 months. I would love to earn back 4 months of ālost wattsā in 4 weeks but it does seem pretty extreme. Iām not complaining as much as Iām just hesitant pinning myself to the prediction.
The projection will adjust based on your RPE inputs. I would ignore it for now and wait for TR to have some data. i.e. train for a week with what it prescribes you and provide honest feedback, then see how things are trending. Those 4.x ss and threshold workouts and your performance executing them will determine your trajectory.
That is a pretty aggressive ramp in difficulty. If you hit them all and they are all hard not very hard, your AI FTP will go up. It looks like itās trying to ramp up your training pretty aggressively.
Do you think you can hit all of those workouts and do another interval?
I wouldnt have a clue at this stage what my capacity is but I honestly doubt it. Iāve done very limited cardio the last few months - have been able to do a reasonable level of resistance training in the gym but dont know how that is going to transfer. I wouldnt imagine I will be able to hit those sessions 100%.
Mine updated this morning. For history, my AI FTP guess was 234 last monthā¦I accepted the 290 today. Iāll be pro tour by June so thatās pretty exciting. You and me buddyā¦too bad itās a bit late for the classics.
I had almost identical. 272 in December. Off most of December and January. Came back late January with 235 AIFTP. By end of February, it predicted 272 and then finally calculated 268.
My assumption is with the new TR update, they significantly dropped the AI value. People didnāt like the huge drop so the algorithm was updated to align to peopleās number prior to the update. I know Iām very sensitive to the number so it felt good even though I believe it is artificial.
My next prediction shows gain of 6 watts which is more aligned to reality so Iām not to worried.
Not sure itās the case. I think itās most likely that you pulled up the level of Threshold work you were doing. Then once that baseline was raised, future workouts will lead to slower raises. Itās pretty sensitive to Threshold AL improvements.
For me, TR keeps predicting big jumps each block and as the days tick by, it reduces it until the end of the block where I get a modest rise. It was predicting a rise from 243 to 257 until I marked a VO2 max workout as āvery hardā and then it revised the estimate to 249 - which is where I usually end up in April each year anyway.
I found the potential rise initially quite motivating but the downward revisions are beginning to make me distrust it. I am following my plan fairly closely but moving a few days around to suit shift working.
So thought I would give a bit of an update here. Didnt really hit the original outlined plan at all as I had a new born and lack of sleep most nights meant I just did what I felt like on those days.
Kinda interestingly though, still managed a 25W increase over the 6 weeks so theres obviously still something the algorithm was seeing.
I have set up the next 4 weeks based on the limited training time I think I will have and its predicting another 30W jump on 2 days a week of sessions LOL.
