I’ve been looking through the new TR release and it is predicting an FTP drop in the next four weeks and I’d like to understand why. I’ve played around a bit with changing workouts a bit but nothing really seems to impact the prediction.
Background information:
Generated the plan through plan builder. Started 11 weeks ago, A event in 9 weeks time
made it a masters plan with two intense days and one endurance ride per week
set the training approach to “balanced”
doing around 5hr30 min of training per week
when the new AI FTP detection shipped my FTP when from 225 to 228, so no change really
Based on your calendar, you have 3 hard rides not 2. I think you are accumulating too much fatigue on that Saturday that’s it’s impacting your other workouts, causing the red and yellow days.
That red day is probably why your FTP is dropping. If you could change the intensity of that Saturday ride that would likely help
Try changing your weekend hard ride so that it doesn’t trigger a red or yellow day for your Tuesday workout.
At the moment you basically only have two bike workouts per week, because that expected hard weekend ride lowers your Tuesday workouts up to the point that they are suggested rest days.
I think the system is identifying that you are pushing too much work and it’s trying to stop you from burning out.
They talk about this on the Q and A podcast when the AI starts recommending lower Athlete Levels and red days.
I think if you lowered the intensity and duration of your Saturday ride to endurance and make it adaptive endurance or 2 hours you’d see better results.
All of your training volume is hard and intense and I think the AI has identified you need to step some of it back to make progress.
Think about climbing a mountain, you aren’t always climbing directly up but generally you are moving up the hill. Minor decreases help you make bigger advancements.
I don’t think that the AI predicted FTP plays nice with those “hard” unstructured rides on Sundays because it doesn’t know enough/any information about them.
I think that the FTP will align with expectations once they are actually completed.
Looking at your calendar I think the Sunday rides is what causing the issues.
The fact that they are hard unknown rides, I think that since the system can’t predict against what it doesn’t know, it throwing a monkey wrench in the mix.
Then because of that it’s effecting two of you Tuesday Vo2 workouts, so for the for the month you’re really just doing four workouts that AI can see.
If you were to change your Sunday rides to Moderate would that be enough to give you back your Tuesday workouts?
Or leave it as it and if you’re feeling up to it do those Tuesday workouts anyway?
They are still there just have to select it from the card.
The prediction is not written in stone and if the system sees that you did the work it should make a difference.
For sure. It’s just seems like that prediction should help me intervene in my training to make smarter decisions? Right now, I can’t tell what that is? All scenarios I’ve tried (including deleting the solo ride) lead to a predicted FTP drop, which is sub-optimal in the lead up to my event
I think part of the issue (which I’m also having) is that the predicted FTP isn’t a predicted FTP at all. It’s a prediction of what power level corresponds to a threshold level 3 workout that it expects you to be able to complete on that particular day when detection is scheduled. If it expects you to be carrying lots of fatigue on that day, then the prediction will be lower than if you were fully rested. I’m really hoping they introduce the ability to change the prediction date. It would make sense to predict on the last day of a recovery week, then the new number would be consistent and meaningful for each new block.
I like you I like my AIFTP to show at the end of my recovery week so for two weeks I let TR just scream at my that I had a pending AIFTP and only this morning hit the button.
TR Support would know better but all that I can think of now is if you’ve already changed Sundays rides to say Moderate maybe even reduce the time, when you begin this weeks training and the Tuesday workout really feels only Hard for you, then this should start moving the next workout levels upward.
If the AI sees this then your AIFTP should increase.
