Zwift raises $450 Million; Specialized joins KKR in the investment round

VC people want a sale/IPO. They cash out and make their money and leave investors holding the bag on a company with a lot of promise but no proven revenue stream.

It sounds like with really want to be a Wahoo/Garmin/Peloton/TR all in one. It’s not a bad strategy if they can pull off hardware.

I’d think the market for structured training (TR/Sufferfest/etc) is super small. In my club of 100 people, maybe 10 are following training plans. 60 are fair weather riders. The other 30 ride regularly but aren’t interested in intervals.

If TR remains private there is zero reason they couldn’t remain a successful niche business. The threat would be if Zwift implemented really good training plans and maybe could pull off custom training by AI driven analysis of an athlete strengths/weaknesses. The later, I think, is a long way off into the future.

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WHAT A BREAK!
WHAT A BREAK!
WHAT A BREAK!

Chat disabled for 3 seconds.

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Funny you say that. I’ve spent my whole life playing video games (RIP my 5wkg dream) and I find a KB one of the least social ways of interaction.

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Agreed. My sim racing days were full of TeamSpeak and Discord voice chat, not just because it’s hard to drive and type at the same time :stuck_out_tongue: , but because the level of interaction is far superior IMO. Not to mention that gaming on consoles leads to a default of voice chat as the comm option since KB are seldom used.

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reading between the lines, wondering if one of Specialized’s investment objectives was to get a piece of the hardware business (design for hire, or some manufacturing). Bit of a leap, could simply be an investment to get a piece of the action thru financial means :man_shrugging: But there are other implications, if you are Zwift why not complement direct-to-consumer with the Specialized dealer network to market, sell, and service the new Zwift hardware? Will be interesting to see this unfold.

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I see TR’s competitors as personal coaches, rather than mass participation platforms like zwift or peloton. I don’t know a great deal about peloton but it does look like a completely different proposition. Zwift is more like Mario Kart than TR, I feel.

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This is the most interesting aspect of the current news, to me. I see Z as potentially leveraging the design and/or manufacturing resources within Spesh to get up to speed much faster than possibly “starting from scratch”.

No idea that is part of it, but I could see them working together to get the trainer and potential smart bike, among other things (indoor apparel and who knows what else?) into production. But I think this should catch the eye of bike makers as well as existing trainer makers. It could lead to big stuff from Z & S.

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Out-of-area analogy, but it reminds me a bit of when Google and Microsoft started making hardware. There were some people who balked to both, because “Why get into the hardware game when you’re so successful with software,” but then it was revealed that a deep, early integration between hardware and software, coupled with a touch more freedom to innovate and really try new things without being viewed as a failure, could end up with some really great stuff. If you’ve got both sides of the hardware software coin, you have some cool opportunities. Maybe we’ll even get that UI update. :upside_down_face:

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  • Now… quit with the dreamy garbage that will never happen :stuck_out_tongue:
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My guess is you are correct. There’s a saying about war planning that probably applies here - “armchair generals study strategy, but professionals study logistics". That’s probably at play here

Zwift has no experience making hardware. We all concentrate on the design but that’s actually the easy part. Making it and distributing it at scale is the hard part which they have no experience in. Specialized makes stuff and has people on staff that can make a few phone calls and have parts sourced and production starting up soon after getting the go order and then manage the production process. And then take care of little things like tariff issues and actually getting the things in a container and on a boat. Specialized brings that to the table along with its brand. A Specialized smart bike will sell well in the real cyclist market.

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To me it appears Zwift wants to become the next Peloton, hardware and streaming at the same time. Specialized is on board to help build the hardware. The guys forking out the cash are seeing this as an IPO opportunity if the hardware is developed and more people get on board.

From a business perspective it is reasonable to assume that Peloton (because of their large subscriber base) and Zwift (because of their recent fund raising) have more expendable capital than TrainerRoad. That does not mean that either company is trying to squeeze TR out, but it does afford them additional opportunities to innovate that could attract new users and users from competitors. (There’s also RGT, FulGaz, and others to consider, too.)

The target audience for each company is different, but there is clearly overlap. TR meets a niche demand for data-driven athletes interested in performance that I don’t feel Zwift or Peloton cater to right now. Should they try to do so, though, TR could have a competition on their hands.

For me (n=1) the biggest draw to TR is the extensive training library (including Plan Builder) and ability to change plans at any point. My initial foray into structured training was through a coach selling online plans but I had to purchase each plan. It worked well preparing me for my very first event but subsequent plans didn’t do it for me. Every time I wanted to change I paid for it.

While I’ve probably spent more for the TR subscription than if I just bought 1-2 years worth of plans, the active forum community, podcasts, and responsiveness of @nate_pearson, @chad, @Jonathan, and the rest of the team are huge selling points such that I want to support the company through my subscription. But all of these are free and in no way guarantee TR business to remain viable, let alone innovate.

From the small bits of business insights that @nate_pearson has shared on the podcasts it sounds like corporate culture is awesome and TR would be a great place to work. Again, though, not necessarily something that attracts paying customers.

I personally think the biggest risk to TR would be if Zwift developed a training library even half as extensive as TR’s, and included it as part of their base subscription. TR and Zwift are priced competitively right now, but in this scenario Zwift would have more services to offer for a comparable price (i.e. extensive workout library, plans, rides, races, challenges, etc).

Group workouts were a great innovation for TR. DCRainMaker has made other suggestions for the indoor cycling industry to consider such as recording even more data that is already being transmitted over Ant+ and BLE (e.g. respiration rate, left/right balance, etc) and using it intelligently to help make us faster. And for TR that’s what it is about … making us faster. Continue to offer and innovate on that and they should have enough sustained business to remain viable for a very long time.

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I agree with this–it probably just pushes the others like RGT/FulGaz/Rouvy/etc. even further into the rear view than they already were.

This is the biggest risk, especially if they were to get their act together on better training plans. “Getting their act together” seems to be a challenge for them on a lot of fronts, regardless of how much investment they keep getting though…

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I use discord to tell my kid to come down for dinner when he is full on into his video games with a headset not listenning to me yelling “dinnnnnneeeeeeeeeerrrrr”

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  • So true. The level of unrest I see in the Zwift Riders FB group is notable. Some has always been there, but the moves Zwift made in some areas, while completely ignoring others has not gone unnoticed. The push to racing while neglecting long standing needs, and resetting claimed release (GUI) because of CV-19 were seen as dismissal of many users desires.

  • I get more of the “Zwift knows best” mentality with each year, and each interview with Eric, as they seem to stray further from the community focus that helped them get where they are.

  • For the first time in over 4 years, I have considered ditching Z and trying different options. I’m not there yet, and am keeping an eye towards what happens in the next 2 months. Will be interesting to see what Z does with the return to the fall season and in light of all these bits of news.

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Zwift already has a great workout app, on par with TR, so all they’d have to do is throw some cash at a few coaches and they could have plans up and running in no time. Even name brand coaches could be had cheap compared to other things Zwift is doing.

Since that would be so easy and cheap to do but Zwift has not done it, it seems pretty clear then that TR is not currently in Zwift’s sights.

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I’m just worried this additional cash infusion will make them put their stupid commercial on even more during the TDF if that’s possible.

How annoying it is!

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They could probably go toe to toe with Grammarly on YouTube now :rofl:

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Personally I think the bigger Zwift get, the more TR will benefit.

Zwift have massively increased the indoor trainer market, and a lot of those people will find their way towards TR, such as myself. And the FTP Improvements thread shows many others who did the first bouts of training with Zwift.

Zwift is effective at persuading you to buy a $500 smart trainer, and from there it’s an easy jump to TR.

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Two Different approaches. I think TR will be fine. They are unique. Zwift does not care about serious training to some extent. That does not get people on board. They are their to strictly gamify fitness. It works. They can keep growing massively.

I dont see it as an issue! Tr will continue to excel and grow!

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