Tour de France 2025 - Predictions, Spoilers, Hot Takes, and Polls

This is exactly what I was talking about above

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Compared to last year’s TDF or this year’s Dauphine - the performances yesterday weren’t that impressive. The stage itself was raced hard, but was comparatively easy. Likely the times were ‘slow’ compared to all time records because of the heat - but Pog (and others) performances yesterday were not some huge outlier in the season or historically

Crazy to guess on future performance - but for now the rider most likely to determine this is Pog, not any of the current era of riders. Things change notriously quickly though - so who knows!

100%. And while you can see it in his face (that he knows he’s stronger) he’s so humble he never talks about it. He mentally breaks Jonas and others, but after the race he is kind, complimentary, and lighthearted. That almost drives the nail in the coffin even further. I love it.

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I don’t think he’s humble at all. I think he knows he’s better and it’s his super power. I just think he doesn’t show it when he talks.

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What was up with Pogi not riding a TT bike in today’s TT?

Don’t want to spoil the result, but missed any sort of explanation for his bike choice.

He explained it post stage interview.

Basically said the times would be similar (lighter aero bike, heavier tt bike. More watts on aero bike position less on tt bike) so he went with the one he had been riding for the last stages since he was more comfortable on it and the times would be similar anyways.

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Makes total sense. A climbing TT stage doesn’t have a big aero advantage. I enjoy the aero position over traditional position for power and comfort (aero gains aside), but that doesn’t seem to be the case for most.

I don’t think you’re allowed to win the TdF if you look like this.

UCI, please, please ban this helmet. Make a helmet too wide rule or something. Please!

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For me the better question is, “How many stage wins?”
At age 26, Pog has 21, Cav had 25, Merckx had 17
Merckx hit the 34 mark at 31 years old. Cav did it at 35

If Pog has no bad luck (has he ever had a serious crash?), he could race at form until, let’s say 32. With 4 wins per year (4 so far, 6 last year!), I would not bet on less than 40 stage wins.

Between 26 yeas old and last win, Hinault added 15 wins. Indurain added 10.

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Don’t go shaming the mushroom king for his looks on his first racing season outside of Mario Kart.

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The spaceballs helmet is awesome, give me anything weird or different in cycling’s world of conformity and obsession over image. Just hoping it makes the old UCI dudes throw up in their mouths a little.

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This assumes no one comes through the junior ranks who is a Pog killer.

Maybe this should go in Unpopular Opinions, but I think pro cycling is LESS interesting because places other than 1st still matter. All the other pro sports seem higher stakes, where only 1st matters, and I do think it adds to the drama.

More than likely they’ve been overextending themselves the last 11 stages trying to tire Pog or keep up with him and have both Vinny and jorg within a striking distance so they can play the same 2022 game plan. They don’t believe any one person can beat him so they need 2-3 people in podium contention. Eventually that catches up to you if you’re constantly racing at your limit.

As for the tour, if you’re a Pog fan, it’s fun. If not, it’s boring. I think that happens in every sport when a person or team is dominant for half a decade at least.

I’m betting UAE will have a slushy machine in the car following pogi tomorrow.

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I used to think he was humble but I watched a little bit of TDF Unchained (disclaimer, not saying Unchained was done well or avoided dramatizing things unnecessarily) and thought he came across arrogant and self-absorbed, so I’m inclined to agree with you.

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That is very unlikely. Look at Jonas - he isn’t ‘best of the rest’. He is clearly better than the rest at the Tour. Pog is just another level beyond that.

Pog is setting up to be the greatest cyclist ever. Baring injury, I just don’t see any challengers for a few years.

Milan needs to be careful, or Pog could take the Green Jersey too. I’m only half kidding about that.

Cool article on Pog’s TT bike choice. Down to running his extra arm sleeve as shoe lace covers…

The big story of this tour so far is Remco.

He’s just not built for the big GT’s against the best. Not physically and not mentally. His handlers should be setting him up for success in the biggest one day races where he will win win win.

Jonas is riding extremely well. Pogacar is just better. That’s life.

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I can’t figure him out. He is of course the top tier TT rider. I thought he was a one day powerhouse, but then I looked at proycling stats. Won the Vuelta in 22 (2 stages). Won some stages in the spring multi-day races in 22. Vuelta KOM in 23 (3 non TT stages). More strong results in the spring multi day races in 23. Points and KOM jersey at Paris-Nice 24, 2nd on GC. 3rd at the Tour last year. A better climber than I thought.

Maybe he gets more consistent at Grand Tour form, maybe not. While JV and Pog are racing, I’m not sure it maters.

In a similar vein, I always thought there was too much focus on Richie Porte’s grand tour possibility, when that wasn’t where he shined.

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