Tour de France 2025 - Predictions, Spoilers, Hot Takes, and Polls

I don’t think Jonas has regressed, Pogi just did the impossible and improved a few % last year when he was already on top of the world. He may have eeked out another % this year, but I think it’s mostly the big step up last year that no one else has been able to match.

There can still be interest and intrigue in the daily story lines of the tour, but in general I find the era of Pog domination to be lackluster through no fault of his own. I prefer the version of cycling where people have actual strengths and weaknesses and riders with specializations can actually win stages in their specialization vs the current era where the worlds best climber can out sprint the worlds best puncheurs half the time. I find UAE’s tactics to be boring because it honestly doesn’t matter much what the rest of the team does, Pog could win if he literally showed up to the tour alone.

It is what it is and I don’t wish him illness or bad luck. The best rider in the world deserves to win, it just isn’t particularly entertaining to me to see the same person win everything.

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This is my view as well. For most cyclists, its extremely interesting when you have 2 against one in the mountains…for this year, Team Visma vs Tadej. In years past, the two would alternate attacking and eventually wear out the one individual. It worked a few years back when Jonas and Roglic did that to Tadej but I really believe that was an isolated event, and the only reason Tadej couldn’t match them was inability to take in his calories. This year, and most any year, it doesn’t matter because Tadej has the magical ability to chase down every attack, and then still beat everyone while climbing at 7W/kg for 30 minutes. That’s not exciting

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This feels like we are back in the Lance era (I’m NOT making a doping accusation) where different riders kept getting talked up pre-Tour as rivals, but their never seemed to be serious rivalry once the racing started

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Except that Lance basically only won the Tour, whereas Pog wins everything else as well. Only MVdP seems to be able to beat him in some specific situations. I agree it’s boring as a spectator, but that isn’t his fault. If history tells us anything, at some point he’ll either crash hard and not be on quite the same level after, or he’ll win another tour or two and decide that’s enough. He’s broken all the other rules though, so perhaps he’ll keep going for another 10 years.

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Pog’s time up Hautacam faster than Lance 2000 and LeBlanc 1994, but slower than Riis 1996. Vingegaard 2022 was slower than all those. Pogacar rode his aero bike on this stage and averaged 13mph up the climb, so some benefits there. He tossed his gels at the base of the climb, so must have fueled well.

In retrospect, Roglic’s IDGAF approach to this tour is starting to look like the smart play.

He knew he wasn’t as his best, and even if he was there’s no stopping Pog. Why stress about it, might as well wear short socks, work on your tan, hell have a brewskie or two.

You can be a tryhard and lose to Pogi or just chillax and lose to Pogo. You’re losing either way.

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Let the predictions fly: does Pog win 6 or 7 Tours? Or go really out on a limb and predict 8. Plus who’s your pick for which rider dethrones Pog?

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I get the sentiment, but racing with an edge is more fun than mailing it in. And sometimes you get a pleasant surprise. Pog easily could have been out of the tour yesterday with that mistake. I’ve had some good results handed to me when a “superior” competitor screwed up or had bad luck. It’s part of the game and a win is a win.

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I think Jonas was also slower then his 2022 time… Imo the trend continues this year that he just isn’t climbing as well as previously, maybe they focused to much on his punch which seems to be improved…

Honestly I can see them being faster they are more aero which actually matters at these speeds and they probably save a not insignificant amount of watts on rolling resistance ( would be interesting to see a comparison between an 90s race tire and a modern one).

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Yeh - it was crazy how well he climbed the Hautacam. I rode that climb 6 weeks ago and pegged a 1:13 at exactly 3w/kg. He went twice as fast suggesting circa 6w/kg (there or thereabouts) which at Bodyweight of 66kg means around 396w … all coming after nearly 100 miles of hard racing, which is all on top of 11 preceding days of fast TdF racing. . So impressive!

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Not that it would have mattered (most likely), but I felt Jonas’ teammates let him down yesterday. I was expecting Jorgensen, Kuss and maybe Yates to be pulling hard at the front on the run-in to the Hautacam and then at a certain point let Jonas and Tadej go at it. Instead by this point they were blown and UAE were in control. I was really hoping for a more competitive race this year but I guess we are looking at one of the all-time greats at his peak and we should appreciate that for what it is.

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While it would be nice to be watching a (closer) GC battle, what I appreciate in this race - indeed, this current era - is the very hard and aggressive racing that’s served up for us on many days. This can be more apparent when you watch stages from the beginning, where it can sometimes be a very substantial way into the day’s racing before a cohesive break finally gets away due to so many being up for it. Or the very long range attacks we see (Pog, obvs), but others too.

I compare this current era to many (most?) previous ones, where in the TdF we’d often see stage after stage of processions, especially in the mountains, hoping for aggressive attacking racing, with either none offered at all or just a measly bit in the final km. Not always, obviously, but plenty often.

My view is that despite Pogacar’s dominance, this is a golden era of aggressive racing styles, which is what I want to see. If that aggression leads to some huge gaps at times, I can happily live with that.

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I wonder if there is some type of illness creeping around at VLAB. :man_shrugging:

It’s a little strange that they all had a bad day..

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It’s not like Pogi is winning every stage. It’s far from total dominance. He will likely win most of the climbing stages, but still not all. His dominance is just so heavy in the climbing stages generally, and that’s how the TdF is weighted in terms of those allowing the biggest time gap, it favors him for the GC.

Competition is always great, but I can sure find a LOT of enjoyment watching Pogi pull some crazy hard attack and just break away, stoned face, while the others are getting wrecked while they fade away. I can rewatch that several times. also, while maybe not as evident in the TdF, he takes major risks that others don’t in his aggressive riding. Sometimes they pay off, sometimes they don’t. IMO, it could be REALLY boring if he raced more conservatively. At least we can enjoy the big solo attacks he’s doing. Far more interesting than Jonas’ racing. Of course, Jonas has to race a bit smarter and rely more on his team to stand any better sort of chance.

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This is my view. It’s this aggressive style of racing, which Pogacar, MvdP & Ben Healey have shown in this tour, that I love watching. If their aggression and risk taking sometimes pays off with large winning gaps, or large GC gaps, then so be it, and to the victor the spoils. I watch to be entertained, not to observe a tedious spreadsheeting exercise be played out.

And as mentioned above, a cracking contest now in the white jersey / foot of the podium.

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I’ve just realised that an individual time trial is the only time you become aware that Roglic is actually in the Tour de France.

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This is exactly what I was talking about above

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Compared to last year’s TDF or this year’s Dauphine - the performances yesterday weren’t that impressive. The stage itself was raced hard, but was comparatively easy. Likely the times were ‘slow’ compared to all time records because of the heat - but Pog (and others) performances yesterday were not some huge outlier in the season or historically

Crazy to guess on future performance - but for now the rider most likely to determine this is Pog, not any of the current era of riders. Things change notriously quickly though - so who knows!

100%. And while you can see it in his face (that he knows he’s stronger) he’s so humble he never talks about it. He mentally breaks Jonas and others, but after the race he is kind, complimentary, and lighthearted. That almost drives the nail in the coffin even further. I love it.

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I don’t think he’s humble at all. I think he knows he’s better and it’s his super power. I just think he doesn’t show it when he talks.

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