Tour de France 2021 - Speculation and Gossip

I don’t want to see the cost of cycling getting even higher because at CAT2 you need $1000/mth on EPO and HgH + whatever else. But I get it, that if those things could be taken safely, who wouldnt want to go smash out mountain rides like the pro’s and crush it up the hills, big ring it up all the climbs of The Death Ride etc.

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Something perhaps not well appreciated if you haven’t worked with molecular diagnostics is how hard it is to actually test for biologic events and establish concrete positive findings.

Particularly when the person being tested has reason to not cooperate, and where governing bodies may want the appearance of clean competition, but are likely more interested in having a good show and the revenue that good show brings in.

Details are beyond the scope of a post in a public forum like this. Frankly, millions of words have already been written.

What I wanted to share here is that have had opportunity to talk with WADA / USADA lab leaders in the past. They are absolutely able to tell who is cheating and who is very likely cheating. The issue is obtaining concrete proof within the system as currently designed.

Athletes and their handlers are highly motivated, skilled, and in many cases better funded and better informed than the testers. The system is significantly tilted in direction of the cheaters because a false positive test result has drastic ramifications to life and livelihood. Unfortunately, the bad actors easily take advantage of this test window and they know how to stay within the upper limits and not pop a positive.

Working in grass roots testing as part of a USAC local association, it is relatively easy to pop amateur dopers. They tend to use the same easily obtained gear (testosterone and steroids) and are not subtle enough in their use so targeted testing works. Of course there isn’t enough funding to catch everyone, so even though targeted testing works reasonably well, only the egregious amateur cheats get popped.

At the serious pro level, guys get popped when one of a couple things happens: (a) The athlete or handler makes a mistake with the doping program. (b) A new test arrives which people don’t know about yet. For example plasticizers or CERA. The latter of which was a WADA + Roche collaboration.

Given the current constraints of testing, need to avoid false positives, and huge motivation on the cheating side, it is difficult to come up with a scenario where the chance of getting caught and the penalty for being caught is less favorable than using PEDs and staying within the boundaries. Personally, and for that reason, I favor lifetime bans with no chance of parole.

As always, hope those pixels above were worth the 90 seconds you spent reading them.

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But for doping in endurance sports like cycling, the limiting factor is training load. The most effective PEDs allow one to train longer, harder, and to recover faster. (Which is why you see the occasional, silly paper showing EPO has no positive benefit for performance)

For most non-pros, the limiting factor is available time.

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To increase the chance of this, it would appear more random testing could help.

Yeah, that makes sense, so the person who already trains more hours per week than me and smashes me, will now be able to smash me even more. That’ll not be good for growing the sport if CAT5 riders know that to get to CAT1/2 they need to train way more + use drugs.

If at least they could be catching and lifetime banning the cheating pros (and shaming the grey area ones), then that could help discourage amateurs cheating.

Hopefully we get some tell all books from riders in the post LA era, maybe even some Sky riders, to clarify what all was going on in the say 2008-2018 period.

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He is listed in several places at 78 but I think it’s out of date. MVDP is billed at 74kg these days and WVA looks to be equally lean if not a bit more so.

Plus we are about roughly 2 weeks in so they will be quite a bit leaner already after so many days of racing.

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I remember that his coach wanted him to drop 2 kilos during training camp 4 months ago (apparently he gains muscles very easily). So 74-76 seems plausible as it was in march. His old ftp was 460W so it puts him around 6W/kg.

So Mark Padun is not going to the Olympics all of a sudden…

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Sounding more and more like that certain red hat wearing group.

Yes.
Yes.

The public illusion of clean sport is just as valuable as actually clean sport to the folks making the decisions.

This includes USOPC (formerly USOC) & USADA just like IOC & WADA.

My wife assisted in drug testing and was explicitly told not to select a particular athlete for testing. She was told to “select at random”… just “not that one.”

No joke.

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Took me longer than 90 seconds. :rage:

Still worth it. Well written.

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Thanks for sharing. Definitely a bummer.

Can you comment on how widespread it might be? Are we talking about the whole peloton or a handful of specific riders?

Steve,

The comments made were direct that clean riders at the world tour level would be a small percentage. Consistent with what has been documented in the last 10-15 years with admissions and positives and things like the reasoned decision and CIRC reports.

I enjoy the entertainment and the spectacle of pro sports. But with knowledge that it is definitely “not normal”.

Sorry can’t do a better job with your question.

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I’m no fan of doping, but for me this is the (ongoing) unforgivable sin of pro cycling. It’s the signature aspect of the USPS years. When the men running the governing bodies have their thumbs on the scales it makes a mockery of everything.

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I’d be more inclined to be sceptical about Bahrain-Victorious riders’ recent performances…

Padun in the Dauphine, Mader in the Tour de Suisse, Landa and Haig looking in superb form until they crashed in the Giro/Tour, Caruso 2nd in the Giro after a history with doping and did not perform anywhere close to this before, Colbrelli finishing with the climbers on Sunday’s stage, Theuns has had his share of stage wins so for him it’s at least consistent.

And then after Padun’s performances, not taking him to the Tour because they want to preserve him a bit and so on… Just seems like they knew he was “hot” and more of those performances would have made it too suspicious.

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Agree

And now not going to the Olympics, what exactly were they preserving him for?

In my other spot I follow they describe doping violation as “pi$$ing hot”, in his case after that performance and now not racing I might suggest he’d be melting the cup it’s so hot!

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To me, these kinds of things mean that most of the peloton is getting some level of pharmaceutical help.

Padun was most like tested at the Dauphine so I don’t think him being benched because he would test positive is logical.

Unless the folks doing the testing don’t want too many positives before the TDF & Olympics because rampant doping damages public interest.

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GCN is guesstimating Tadej to have done 416 to 425W (6.4 to 6.5Wkg) for 32 minutes, in an aero position.
Interesting points they are making is that his „white jersey“ suite is less aero than the real top of the range skin suits.
Also, the Campa wheels should be quite a bit slower than the AeroCoach wheels or the Tri Spoke Küng was riding.

Tadej is certainly a great timetrialist. Everything else is speculation :man_shrugging:t2:

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