# The Bell curve of cylists - how fast are the average TR users?

Shall we?

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0 voters

20w increments paints with a broad brush, but this puts us within the limitations of the poll options

14 Likes

I don’t test well. My numbers when racing seem okay. Good 1 and 5 min power. I’ve become more patient and somewhat smarter when road racing crits. sometimes i wait too long though. Usually top 5 in cat 4. Hoping to be cat 3 by mid spring. I was definitely one of the stronger cat 4s at Gateway Cup this year. I did a 3/4 race and was fine.

2 Likes

Using W/kg might be a better statistic to “normalize” the data.

11 Likes

I’d say W/kg has its own limitations as well.

1 Like

From something Nate said on todays podcast (185), “[…] almost perfect bell curve with the average at 3W/kg and about 7% of people above 4W/kg”.

24 Likes

zwift - a lot depends on your weight and the course. i’m high 3’s low 4, I can race b easy. I can race A on a flat course, but not a hilly as i’m 83-85kgs

MDL

It has to be single sided in some fashion because everyone is > 0W/kg.

3 Likes

In theory, yes, Erick. [And it is possible to calculate the probabilities with that restriction.] In practice, no: much less than 1 person in 10 000 is predicted to have a negative w/kg according to this distribution. in fact, this distribution predicts that only 1 in 10 000 would have a w/kg less than 0.49.
1 in 100 will have a w/kg of less than 1.41.
1 in 10 will have a w/kg of less than 2.13.
[19.17 per cent have w/kg less than me! Hurray, I thought I was at the tail end.]
At the other end of the scale, about 23 per cent will have a w/kg more than 3.5.

2 Likes

There’s a lot of Zwitchcraft to racing well on Zwift. The guys that are winning races have huge 1 min and 5 min power. They are also really skilled at sitting in the bunch to recover.

1 Like

About 25W below average, which is fine for heading towards the end of my first ever training block.

Although I’m pretty light I think at 67 kilos so still over 3.3W/kg.

Things can only get faster.

1 Like

Are there any average charts like this for women?

7 Likes

HOLY CRAP!!

If that graph isn’t a case study of the mental barriers of FTP testing, I don’t know what is!

Very cool…

4 Likes

all talk of power comparisons should be in w/kg unless we’re all riding flats these days

5 Likes

There are still several disciplines where raw power trumps w/kg. Some MTB courses with short climbs, crits, and some CX courses. So while it is probably better for the majority of riding, those with really high FTP but not as high of W/kg can still be extremely fast.

4 Likes

Flat TT course too. Power and aero win every day.

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I was wondering if there were ANY women on the TR forum?!

10 Likes

Look at how FTP numbers tend to cluster around round values: 200W, 250W, 300W.

6 Likes

Yeah, I noticed that. Clear sign of people hitting landmark values.

5 Likes

I sure know that if i got to 395 I’d tell people 400

28 Likes

You see the same thing in many areas. If you take marathon finishing times for example there are clear clusters just before the hour markers, half hour markers and gradually smaller peaks at the 15’s 10’s and 5’s. The powerful mix of the central governor and significant numbers.

After all there’s no real significant performance differential between a 3 hour dead marathon and a 2:59:59 is there?

5 Likes