This is another good idea. If you have been doing running baselines for the military, you’d likely see a substantial drop in performance here too if the issue was not related to a PM. If your running has been relatively consistent, then you’re likely dealing with faulty power. If not, then it may be a vitamin deficiency or something of that nature.
This was going to be my advice. Something very wrong indeed there in my completely unqualified opinion.
Thought about a running test, but was wary as I haven’t run much at all since OCT. Think I may go do a couple miles today just to get a sense. Thanks.
Great point on the hill. Here’s some data from Strava 2 days ago:
Length: 2.28 Miles
Gradient: 2.7% for the segment
My performance:
Time: 8:58
Avg Speed: 15.3mph
Avg P: 166W
#10 on the leaderboard for the same segment is:
Time: 7:44
Avg Speed: 17.7mph
Avg P: 270W
I’m not sure if there is an equation to guess-timate power off the time, speed, distance, weight factors. I’m open to suggestions.
Thanks. Sounds like a project for the weekend.
I do calibrate every ride the same way… wake the pedals with some non-weighted turns of the crank, calibrate. Never been an issue before.
per Climbing Power Calculation
I guessed on the weight of your bike so give or take a couple of watts… Obviously weather and rolling resistance could be slightly different than what’s here but as an approximation…
Wow & thanks. I am unfamiliar with this overall, but even a 20% error would put me well over 200W.
I’ll keep testing.
I had the Vector 3S for awhile. They seemed okay but then the power would read kind of low and dropout so Garmin sent me new ones. They kept having dropout issues though so I eventually just bought the Assiomas.
166w on that climbing seems low for 15mph
Not saying you don’t have a a health issue… But I would bet the power meter is busted
Even if all those assumptions are a bit off, and all go the same way, I’m reading that the OP has held at least 240 w for 9 minutes.
No way he’s doing that if his FTP is 140W.
I’m very inclined to think the PM is busted.
OP - does the budget run to a simple left hand crank pm? The other thing would be (if gyms are open near you) is to find an exercise bike (like a WattBike) that has power numbers.
@loftusmt77 are your pedals left/right power meters? If so, what does the right/left balance look like? Maybe one of them isn’t working anymore, and you get half the power.
Depends on weight though, and maybe on wind direction. The strava segment can give you an idea, but unless you know someone’s weight, its hard to say if the power was comperable.
It appears you was on a downwards trajectory even before the 25% drop in FTP. Based on my somewhat similar experience, here are a few things to consider:
- Too much intensity, and not enough recovery. Out-of-the-box TR plans were not good for me in this regard - I had to dramatically lower the intensity and increase volume.
- Consistency. Your training stress curve must be going up during a training block. If most of non-compliant workouts (15%) happen during the later half of your block, it could be that your body doesn’t get enough stress overload and adaptations do not kick in.
…still, this sharp 25% drop looks weird, and it happened between December and February…with this happening in January:
if you changed your measuring device, you can’t compare numbers.
your power meter is definitely screwed - only 1.5mph difference up hill yet only 60% of the power.
well maybe he had a 70mph tailwind but somehow I doubt it…
He is now the same height and weight as me and no way I get up a 2.7% grade 2.3 mile climb in anywhere near that time on 140w. Dont care what the air density is.
140w is what I hit in the ‘off’ portions of 40/20s when I really feel like 
Some better data, Did a test on a segment where I have two other efforts from Jul 2020 in Strava.
Segment stats:
1.92Miles, 342ft vertical, 3.3% average gradient
12 JUL 20:
170.2lbs, 10:51 time, Avg Speed: 10.6mph, AvgHR: 167bpm, PM Avg P: 225W (FTP: 230W)
26 JUL 20:
169.6lbs, 10:38 time, Avg Speed: 10.8mph, AvgHR: 159W, PM Avg P: 194W (FTP: 230W)
Today:
168.8lbs, 8:41 time, Avg Speed: 13.3mph, AvgHR: 175bpm, PM Avg P: 170W (Trainer Road FTP: 141W)
Using the calculator that @Ivanecky provided at: Climbing Power Calculation for that segment (20lb bike weight):
12 JUL 20 Calculated P: 187W (-38W from the recorded data)
26 JUL 20 Calculated P: 192W (+2W from the recorded data)
Today Calculated P: 256W (+86W from the recorded data)
Now I ran a bunch of other Strava segments from 2020 through the calculator and in general the calculator was pretty accurate on straight steep climbs; segments with gradient variability threw it off. On my 12 JUL 20 ride above, I had two large power spikes like sprints so I think that made the Average P high.
So… it appears confirmed that the power meter is off. I’ll probably do the manual calibration and go to the doctor. I went all out today and am guessing the power meter is off 60+W. L/R leg balance was in normal range, but am not sure if both pedals are not working or just one.
I don’t know anything about the Garmin Vector’s, but there’s a whole thread about issues with them here: Garmin Vector 3 - Dropouts/Right sensor missing - #97 by Nickm123
To be honest, you’d know if you were ill to a degree that drops your performance massively. You’d feel tired and struggle with other things in life.
That is looking pretty conclusive. Once you get to the bottom of the issues with the power meter you will probably find your FTP is actually 350W! 
This would be super funny.
He has his busting his ass thinking his ftp was dripping when in fact was growing!
I hope is that!