I was coming to the end of a polarized mid volume plan and was due for an AI review of my FTP. As the last workout within the block before the recovery week I decided to the Hour Record. As that is a 9.8 PL workout it triggered the AI revision of my FTP right away and the new FTP suprised me.
FTP before: 235
New FTP: 247 (up 5.1 %)
Average power sustained over 60 min: 261
Throughout the hour I noticed that going above 280 was loading up my legs to much and that my FTP should be lower than that. My weakest 10 minutes averaged 252. I am curious to why the AI chose to assign 247 rather than something closer to 261?
Probably just built to be conservative regarding making major step changes (upwards or downwards) w.r.t. to a recent prior number, unless evidence of your ability at a significantly different number is overwhelming. My guess would be that if in the next 28 day window you were to repeat the performance you described, and showed that it wasn’t a one off, you’d be edged much closer to that 261 number.
If you’re absolutely certain of your ability at that number, you can always manually override the AIFTP number and see how it goes - if it proves OK, leave it at your manual override number, else if you struggle just drop it back towards the suggested AIFTP number.
Nice increase It wont be looking at one ride though but all your recent ride to give a sensible estimate. At a guess if more of your performances start to become like what you did your AI FTP will increase again.
I get your logic and would agree if the same thing happened from any other 9.X progression level workout. The Hour Record specifically tells you to go flat out for 60 min and drops you from ERG mode to do that, making it very hard to be a one time fluke.
If I continue with the AI FTP I am certain that I will hit a 9.X progression level workout in week 2 of the next block of training. Could a mid block FTP increase be detrimental or is whatever?
You did a 1hr ftp test, the gold standard. Punch in the number and go with it. PLs will adjust way down. If the training turns out to be too hard, you can manually adjust it back. I doubt it will. AIFTP will catch up and start guiding you better, it probably just needs to be shown the way this one time.
1hr power does not necessarily mean that it is your ftp. If one’s tte is right at or near 60m sure but that can vary quite a bit between individuals. ~30-70m or so.
I would definitely feel safe saying OPs ftp is at least what they held for the hour but it could be a bit higher if their tte is in the shorter end.
I’d assume the algorithm is built to take many data points into account when estimating FTP. Since you had a large jump, seems likely your other efforts weren’t representative of a 261 FTP. Particularly if you told the algorithm that efforts were difficult.
Estimation systems like AI FTP detection tend to exhibit higher error when the data they’re evaluating deviates more than usual from the norm.
This is one of those obvious times to just manually set FTP.
Last I heard, if you do a high enough PL workout (ie: above 9.0) then the system automatically increases your FTP to allow you to have workouts to progress to. Your increased FTP of 5% is not running AIFTP detection, it’s simply making sure you don’t run out of workouts in that “energy system”. It’s a bridge algorithm to get you through all of your workouts or training plan until your next AIFTP, which is at least 28 days apart.
SURE WILL!! And it uses AI to pick the RIGHT duration increase instead of just stepping up 15/30 mins each week.
I’m really excited for this release. For the first time we batched everything for a “fall” release to do a big splash. We’re a little late, but there are updates all over the website and app.
Sorry for the delayed response. I have been on a business trip during the week.
Thank you everyone that responded and I am particular happy that Nate showed up and provided numbers to go by. I will go with the suggested 278. This range is not unfamiliar to me as my peak FTP was 308 a few years ago and it feels great to make large improvements toward my previous level.
It wont be looking at one ride though but all your recent ride to give a sensible estimate. At a guess if more of your performances start to become like what you did your AI FTP will increase again.
release coming out very shortly with AI FTP 3.0 in it. 
That has you at 278.
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