Declining an AI FTP Increase

I’ve just been prompted for my first 28 day AI FTP update which, as expected (based on having visibility into it over the past month :heart_eyes:), is higher than I want to train at since I want to be able to do longer threshold intervals.

In the past, I’ve always immediately accepted an AI FTP update but I’m now considering not accepting it and clicked decline this morning. Looks like I will still have visibility into my next predicted FTP in 28 days which was unexpected but great. But, for some reason, my PLs seem to have already reset to where they would be if I had accepted the increase (seems like a bug). Future workouts do appear appropriate based on where my PLs were last week though so I’m assuming my PLs will mostly correct as I complete workouts next week.

I’ve seen other posts where people manually set their FTP lower after accepting an increase but this seems like a better solution if the current FTP is reasonable. By the end of the month, I may be near maxing out some PLs and need to accept an update and manually adjust it down but I don’t see any downsides for now.

Just look at the wattages of the workouts it prescribes.

If it thinks you can do 3 × 15 at 300 watts it’s going to give you 3 × 15 at 300 watts, whatever your AIFTP/FTP is set at.

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As you can see, had I accepted, my FTP would have increased from 293 to 307. This means instead of workouts like the PL 5.5 3x15 FTP one I did last week, I’d be doing workouts in the 3-4 PL range which are more like 3x9 FTP. I want to do workouts with a higher TIZ and longer intervals.

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Also, nearly all of my endurance rides being prescribed are around .70 IF with many including portions around .75. This would push my heart rate into Z3 on all of my “easy” days if I’m training at the higher FTP.

IMO, this is one of the biggest downsides of the new model for those of us being assigned an FTP higher than previously and higher than physiological thresholds.

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Have you tried playing with the sliders in the approach settings? Selecting endurance and lowering it?

I have. I tried dropping it all the way down to the lowest option and it had basically no effect. It’s currently at Balanced.

No idea what AI is actually doing in the background but seems to me like it’s trying to build my Z2 endurance through my 90 minute workouts while I actually expect to build Z2 endurance through my long 4-8 hr rides and as a by-product of increasing my FTP through the 2 intensity workouts each week.

I still wish that TR would publish a bit more about the intended behavior of the sliders. As @Nate_Pearson said in the beta thread that lowering the endurance slider would have that effect.

I was just thinking about how TR mentioned the survivor bias when talking about the FTP results.

Could the model be doing something similar? It could see benefits from those that did endurance at a higher % of FTP but is missing those that burned out and disappeared. The engines in this example. The fallacy was assume that you need to armor where the bullets holes were in the survivors, but it’s the holes in the planes that didn’t survive that mattered.

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Yeah who knows. I’m in a Master’s plan so would think burnout risk is considered in the model.

But it doesnt from my own experience. I was given a big bump for me. The Threshold workout stayed the same both when accepting the increase and manually entering the FTP. The workout was performed at a rate of 10 watts lower throughout with the lower ftp. I played around with different workouts etc for a couple of weeks to see changes. Using a manual FTP still gives me similar workouts but the watts are lower due to my lower manual entered FTP.

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It likely does depend in part on your volume. If I move between conservative and aggressive the workouts per week goes from 3 to 4

Hmmm. I’ll have to have a play with it myself. :thinking:

Taking a look!

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This isn’t the case. Here’s from Nate:

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Noted. Thanks. :+1:

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