I’m a new TrainerRoad user and have been following a custom plan for a climbing event that’s about 6 weeks away. I’ve completed around 3 weeks of training so far.
I started with a Ramp Test and received an FTP of 193W, which was similar to estimates from other training platforms I’ve used. With that FTP, I could complete VO2 Max and hard workouts without major issues. They felt challenging but very manageable. I suspect the Ramp Test may underestimate my FTP because I have relatively weak anaerobic/sprint abilities.
After about two weeks of training, I rated most workouts as Hard (because they required effort, not because I was close to failure). AI FTP Detection then increased my FTP from 193W to 211W, and AI FTP Prediction suggested it could reach 222W by the end of the plan.
Last week, I completed an outside workout as prescribed and did an unstructured recovery ride on Sunday. On Monday, TrainerRoad offered a recovery workout (recommended) or an intense workout. Since I felt very fresh, I chose the intense option.
The AI assigned Monadnock -1, which was by far the hardest workout I’ve done. I completed it, but rated it Maximum Effort. It felt more like a sprint workout than a VO2 Max workout—my legs became extremely heavy and my cadence dropped in the final 30 seconds of the intervals, even though my heart rate still felt under control.
What confuses me is that after this workout, AI FTP Prediction changed and now suggests my FTP may decrease from 211W to 207W by the end of the plan.
Could you help me understand:
Was the jump from 193W to 211W potentially too aggressive?
Does my experience with Monadnock -1 suggest that 211W is too high?
Why would FTP Prediction drop after one difficult workout that I still managed to complete?
Is there anything I may have done wrong regarding workout selection, ratings, or training decisions?
Based on your workout performances since starting TR, I’d say that maybe that bump to 211 was a bit much.
I’m looking at that threshold workout that you did on the 11th, though, and you rated it as moderate, which is a bit conflicting with the data from the VO2 workout that you struggled with today.
Are you using a different power meter when riding outside? I wonder if there is a discrepancy between your inside and outside power meters..
Manually dropping your FTP down to 200-205 could be a good idea here, but you could give Wednesday’s workout a shot first if you’d like..
You crushed a level 7 VO2 workout on the 6th, though, so you know your FTP is somewhere close by..
Yes, I use different power meters (an indoor smart trainer and Assioma pedals outdoors). With an FTP of 193 (before the 11th), and even after it increased to 211 on the 11th, my threshold workouts felt quite easy, and my heart rate never reached mid Zone 4.
What would you recommend?
Thanks for your advice. My plan is to do the workout this Wednesday. If it feels manageable, I will keep my FTP at 211, especially since TrainerRoad AI has already made my workouts easier after I rated Monadnock-1 as a maximum-effort workout.
However, if Wednesday’s workout still feels too hard, I will lower my FTP to 200–205 watts as you suggested.
I’d try putting your power pedals on your indoor bike and doing a test where you record power from both devices simultaneously so that you can see how big the discrepancy is between the two. Make sure you calibrate both to the manufacturer’s specifications first.
If there’s a big discrepancy between your trainer and power pedals, then you’re likely going to throw a lot of conflicting data to TR as you switch between riding inside and outside, but there is likely a way to get them to read closer together.
Today I kept my FTP at 211 and completed Antelope -2 (Level 4.4). It felt hard but still manageable, so I rated it Hard.
What concerns me is that it felt about as difficult as Galena 7.2 did when my FTP was set at 193. Because of that, I think I may struggle with Sweet Spot workouts above Level 5, so I’m planning to lower my FTP to 205 as you suggested.
I will also compare the power readings from my pedal power meter and smart trainer. If the difference is significant, I’ll adjust my outdoor targets accordingly. Since most of my riding is indoors, only saturday and sunday outside. So i still plan to keep my FTP at 205.
What do you think about this plan?
One more question: my AI FTP Prediction dropped again today, from 207 to 206. Could today’s workout be the reason? I skipped some Zone 1 warm-up and recovery segments, but completed all the main intervals as prescribed.
Do you know why the prediction might have decreased?
Also, one more thing: despite my last three hard workouts (levels 11, 13, and 15), none of my Progression Levels (Sweet Spot, Tempo, etc.) have increased. Do you know what might be causing that?
I’d say that a level 4.4 Sweet Spot being rated as hard isn’t too bad. Hard, but manageable is about how you want Sweet Spot workouts to feel.
Keep in mind that since you just got this FTP, you’ve got to live with it for the next ~20 days, so you don’t want to start with too high of workout levels, or you might start to run out of runway in the form of workouts.
That 207 to 206 drop likely came in the form of some rounding that happened on the backend. It’s not something to worry about as you’ve still got plenty of work between now and then. Just focus on knocking out your workouts as best as you can.
Regarding those workouts, I’d try to avoid skipping recovery intervals. It’s okay to skip through warm-ups and cool-downs, but I’d try to keep the main workout as it’s prescribed as best as possible.
It looks like your Athlete Levels are accurate. They only move if you pass a workout with a higher level than what they’re currently at, or if you haven’t passed a workout at your current level in something like 28 days.
For example, if your Sweet Spot level was 7.2 and then you passed a level 4.4 workout, your level won’t change because 4.4 is lower than 7.2. We still think you deserve that 7.2 because you passed that workout recently enough that your fitness still reflects that performance.
Let me know if that makes sense and if you have any other questions. I’m always happy to chat!
