I was wondering if someone might be able to help with me an issue I seem to be having. I recently signed up with TrainerRoad and started a plan, and everything seemed to be going well, the FTP detection was showing progress. I then fell ill and and had to take a break for a couple about seven weeks to recovered.
When I returned I did some gentle rides to make sure I was ok and then the AI detection popped up saying my FTP had dropped to 185 (23rd June), which I accepted. A week later I performed an FTP ramp test on Zwift and got a reading of 226w (30th June). The effort appears on my calendar and from what I read on the forums I had to manually adjust the FTP on my account with this new value. However, now the AI FTP prediction tells me that it won’t work unless I revert to the value it detected on the 23rd June.
Thinking back to the podcast I’ve listened to I think I remember Jonathan saying something about the AI model sometime shows a different value to what you might expect just because it’s a different of how it’s not a one off measurement. Is that the case here and I need to drop back 41w?
Also just to be clear I’m pretty sure this is my fault and I’ve done something wrong to cause this situation. I’m not having a moan about the system call it PEBKAC. Anyone had this happen before and enlighten me as to what I should do?
Thank you Eddie, and sorry for the delay I didn’t see any notification about your response. I noticed that when my new plan started it popped up a message saying about a new FTP value was detected (guessing this is what you wanted me to check). However, it has decided that my FTP is nearly 20watts higher than I tested which made the initial work impossible to complete. Over the course of last week it’s prediction has started to come down (below what it said my FTP was), but still above what I tested at. So I’m just following the plan and see how it all washes out in 22 days. I’m assuming once it’s got a better base line from completing a period of planned workouts that it will readjust.
Looking at your calendar, maybe it would be best to manually set your FTP to something between your recent ramp test results and your AI FTP Detection. Maybe 230-235 could be a better place to start.
Let me know if you’re interested in giving this a shot.
Thanks again Eddie for the response. My worry here would be that it would again mess up the AI prediction. I got a message from the support team saying that the original issue I was facing was basically down to me changing the FTP after the AI made the initial prediction (i.e. still within the 28days window). So wouldn’t this create the same scenario where the AI prediction becomes unavailable again?
I’d focus less on seeing the AI FTP Prediction right now and more on ensuring that you’re getting the right workouts. The prediction will be there for you at some point, but if you lose it for a week or two in order to get the right training in place, that’s still a win.
It’s totally up to you! It looks like you might be fine carrying on as you are, but I think you might benefit from higher-level workouts, which you’d get by lowering your FTP slightly.
Maybe give today’s workout a shot first and let me know how it goes.
Thank you again Eddie for all the help. The session went well, was slightly more than moderate. However, as the prediction has dropped again further, I’m going to take that as my sign.
My assumption is that as I know what I tested at (which will be lower than the AI detection, and the fact that the prediction keeps dropping) these sessions whilst doable might be pushing me harder and potentially set me back. Not sure if that is the correct way to think about it, but makes sense to my layman’s brain.
So after I drop the FTP, do I need to do anything else, or will the system just pick up and adjust everything automatically?
The system has adjusted your upcoming workouts based on that change in FTP.
Your next FTP prediction is currently unavailable, but as soon as you complete a workout, that should repopulate. Right now, the model just needs some data at your new FTP to calculate how you’ll perform during these new workouts.
Nice job on that workout!
Let me know if I can help out with anything else moving forward. I’m always here when you need me!
