I’ve been using the AI coach and plans for 15 weeks and built my FTP up to 252W. Now AI is predicting my FTP will be 250W based on 17 planned workouts. How is that possible?
I honestly think the FTP Prediction is the dumbest thing they’ve ever implemented. I have the exact same “problem” you do. I am doing 3 interval sessions per week based on the Training Plan it suggested for me and it now predicts that my FTP will be +/- 1 at the end of the current training block. It’s pretty frustrating.
The “funny” thing is that all the workouts I’m prescribed are challenging and definitely pushing me to my limits. It’s pretty clear that I’m progressing and without the AI FTP Prediction I’d be a lot happier. They obviously want to dangle a carrot in front of you to motivate you. But in my experience so far it’s been the worst thing about TR 
As long as the workouts feel right I’m essentially trying to ignore the AI FTP Prediction completely. Thus far it feels like it’s not a reliable tool to measure progress.
Interesting, maybe you are plateauing…FTP can’t be raised indefinitely. Tell us more about your training and history. How do you feel your fitness, is it getting better?
It looks like your prediction has changed. Did you do anything to prompt that?
Welcome to the forum, by the way, @Richard_Anderson! 
I’d be happy to take a look at what’s going on. Let me know if I can share some of your account/training details here in this thread.
I have just followed the next training session. I’m not sure how the AI predications work. I saw it changed but it just left me more confused than before.
Happy to share my details as I am confused as to what is happening
This is fairly common in my wife’s plan. Its also not indicative of her actual speed and race results. It really cant handle outside rides accurately due to sporadic power files.
I would just keep training and make sure you are rating workouts per the very specific rules of trainer road and not what you perceive their system means.
Their model is not very complicated and easily manipulated up and down merely by how you rate the workout. Also such rating can change your predicted FTP dramatically.
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Easy – Non‑taxing, little effort/focus, could repeat without issue.
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Moderate – Somewhat comfortable, some focus needed, could finish with confidence.
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Hard – Challenging, tough to complete, could have done an extra set with focus.
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Very Hard – Very difficult, tested you, couldn’t have done an extra interval.
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Maximum Effort – Extremely difficult, pushed beyond abilities, massive energy/focus needed. FAILED
It looks like you’re now expected to gain a watt by your next FTP detection.
Your prediction updates any time we get new training data. This could be completing a scheduled workout, skipping a workout, logging an unplanned ride, or a handful of other things.
There is a significant bug that we’re working on right now that causes FTP predictions to drop over time for athletes who complete some / all of their workouts outside, and it looks like you could be experiencing that.
Keep an eye on things and let me know how your training goes as you progress toward your next detection day.
Also, keep in mind that what’s most important is getting the right stimulus from your workouts, so as long as your workouts are feeling appropriately hard, you’re likely moving in the right direction.
Let me know if this helps and if you have other questions.
Thanks Eddie
I came to the same conclusion as you state here. So long as the training is pushing me and I feel I am improving the AI FTP is only a number.
Stay in touch and let me know if I can help out with anything moving forward. 
Eddie
If it helps any when I did outside rides the AI would recommend a ret day the following day and remove the VO2 max intervals which reduced the predicted FTP change.
However recently when I completed an outside rides I ignored the AI suggestion for a rest day and reinstated the VO2 max intervals which AI had removed. This then gave me a larger FTP increase after completing the interval session the day following my outside ride.