Apologies, thought I’d replied to Don Bikes
1 Like
That’s not true. If there are two results that are similar in likelihood by knowing what the outcome of the workout is changes the probability of other future workouts. The Monty Hall example isn’t a perfect example but illustrates the thought experiment.
If there are three doors and two have goats behind them and one has a sports car. You pick a door. The host opens one door and shows you a goat. Should you switch? Does that information make a difference?
I think there are two ways to view the scheduled workouts.
One is what you may be arguing for given the Monty Hall reference: the plan should be a theoretically optimal plan that minimizes the “difference” between the scheduled workouts and the actual workouts. Here, you can know for certain that the next workout W will never be the actual next workout because the athlete collapsing the uncertainty of the current workout leads to workouts X or Y, but W minimizes the expected error overall.
The other way to view the scheduled workouts is as a happy-path plan where predictive validity is the measure of error. Here, there is no theoretical notion of “closeness of workouts”, we just observe how often predicted workouts remain the best workout to do. Here, you must pick either X or Y because W will always be wrong.
Hey @donbikes 
Yes, an ad hoc plan is when you manually input training phases instead of using the “Create My Custom Plan” option and letting TR build you one.
Our plans are not fixed, they evolve with you, so as you complete workouts the system is able to read how successfully you are completing them and djusts future workouts to keep your training productive. This supports consistent, high-quality training, and that’s exactly what helps you get faster.
Think of your training like climbing a staircase. The goal is to keep moving upward—but not every step needs to be taller than the last. TrainerRoad adjusts the step size based on what you’ve been doing lately, so you can keep progressing in a way that supports consistency and long-term growth.
Added to that the system also takes into account your fatigue, so it uses Fatigue Management to further fine tune these adjustments to the plan.
So in short, the changes to planned workouts is normal. But you can always “pin” the workouts if you don’t want them changed.
This blog post may be of help when explaining the overall experience:
2 Likes
Thank you for the response. I cannot find anywhere on your website that using your “training phases” plans are “ad hoc” and result in a different response when coupled with the AI system for any particular phase when compared to a complete “custom” plan. I have used the custom plan in the past, but at this particular time I do not want to start with base training as I feel I already have a good base. That is why I chose to use a plan based on the build phase.
The staircase you talk about is what i expect. Although not every step needs to taller than the last, I don’t expect it to be shorter (i.e., going back down). When AI adjusted my schedule, not only did it lower my FTP by about 5%, but it also gave me a plan that predicted my FTP would be reduced even further by the end of it.
As far as managing fatigue and giving workouts more likely to be successful, why did it give a Threshold workout in the first week that was predicted to be very hard, then gave progressively lower Threshold workout levels (with accompanying lower predicted effort levels)?
More regarding fatigue management – the adjusted schedule that AI gave me after completing the threshold ride lowered the level of the endurance ride the day after. I expected that. In looking at the power levels that ride would use and mindful of the saddle sore I recently developed, I changed the hour-long scheduled ride to a 30-minute ride. It gave me a decently higher power level during the “on” intervals and minimized my time on the bike. Surprisingly (to me), it also resulted in a higher predicted FTP level at the end of my plan than the scheduled one hour ride. If the 30-minute ride was better in terms of reaching a higher FTP at the end of the plan, why didn’t AI suggest it?
Nothing in the blog post you linked answers those questions.
Look at TIZ, IF, and TSS sometimes what appears to be easier based on progression level is actually an increase in TSS or TIZ.
If you’re looking for a plan that doesn’t include base training, you could build a custom two-month-long goal-based plan. It will run you through build and specialty phases.
I think this is better than just adding individual training phases to your calendar (we call those ad hoc).
Let me know if you’re interested in this..
2 Likes
I did. They didn’t. IF and TSS were both lower. Not sure how to evaluate TIZ for threshold or anerobic workouts.
But now that I’ve done the threshold workout as well as the recovery ride the next day and rest day today, the threshold session scheduled for the next two Saturdays are now progressively harder. The anerobic workouts for Tuesdays have swapped and while being harder tomorrow than last week’s, the following week will be easier (back to the same as last week’s).
Those who have said things will change, yeah, they did. Don’t know why, though, when I’m following the plan.
2 Likes
RPE - the model is very sensitive to it.
3 Likes
Thank you. I learned something out of this. I didn’t know that I could use custom plan to do what I wanted and that this would be inherently better than using the pre-built plans. I will do that.
But now I’m kinda re-thinking the whole thing. I just made plans for an off-the-bike vacation the first 3 weeks of May. Probably should not bother training to reach some big goal just before leaving. I think I will trash the plan I’m now on, and just do a full 3-moth plan, but one with a goal of just maintaining fitness. That will have me at a good fitness level just before leaving on the trip, then I can re-assess an appropriate goal and plans to get me there after I return.
Thanks again for letting me know that it’s better to use the custom plan builder than the pre-built plans even if you desire to start with a specific phase.
4 Likes
No problem!
Just shout if I can help out with anything else. 
Enjoy your trip in May!
Thanks!
Full custom plan with only “maintaining fitness” as the goal and in the build phase predicts a return to my pre-AI FTP level in about 2 weeks rather than going down farther (original prediction on the ad hoc build plan I was using) or remaining about the same (modified prediction after rating the first threshold ride as “hard” rather than “very hard” and shortening the endurance ride the next day).
And this base phase has good hard sweet spot and over-under (threshold) sessions that I really didn’t expect right off the bat in a base phase. Nice.
3 Likes
@donbikes, Just in case here is more info on building custom plans [Click]!
2 Likes