As MVP said himself this week, you don’t need to be in top form to win MSR.
How many times has Sagan recently finished high in standings in MSR only to disappear from subsequent races because his overall fitness is poor (but people will point to MSR and proclaim he is “back”)?
With proper positioning in the pack, a good team, proper fueling, etc. you can “bluff” your way into the finale at MSR.
So even though MVP’s form looked a bit suspect at T-A, I’m still putting him up there with the favorites and would not expect to see him necessarily sacrifice his chance at the win for Phillipsen.
Think one of the biggest things that makes this race so fun to watch is the hugely visible role that psychology plays on the race
Pog is definitely flying, but everyone in the peloton knows this and since the climb isn’t ‘hard’ enough to clearly drop everyone the best way to escape is not on strength alone, but on strength plus underestimation.
No one will underestimate Pog, so for me the only conceivable way he can win is to get away with a group where he is not the sprinting favorite, and then outsprint them ala Montreal last year. He’ll never get separation and solo in, too many people watching that wheel.
Coming in on ‘bad’ form like WVA and MVDP are bringing might be an advantage as people might hesitate and before they realize it you have second group dynamics and a ‘weaker’ rider can solo in. Not saying I am picking them, I’ll stick with my earlier shot of Soren Kragh, but the path to victory for the ‘top’ rider is extremely hard in this race
Yeah, I think this year feels like another year where the race is won about 3km from the finish line.
Much like how the women’s world champs was won. The group will come together again and someone will slip up the road on their own while everyone stares at each other.
Lots of talk about Mahoric and his dropper again. I have a theory that the dropper doesn’t make a heck of a lot of difference to his descending speed advantage, last year it looked purely about risk acceptance. Now will they make it harder to try pop him off, or is anyone else willing to throw caution to the wind. It would have been a great one to see Pidcock give chase on.
Yeah, MSR is about recognizing the “right” moment and capitalizing on it vs. there being “decisive” points on the course.
Everyone knows to be up form in Arenberg, on the Koppenberg, etc…but MSR is often won based on circumstances. See Sturyven’s win a few years ago as a perfect example.
It’s not his physical ability. It’s his positioning in finishes. He’s lacking confidence in very competitive finishes. He’s also not a peak 5sec guy. Strongest power relative to the peloton is his long sprint. His 30sec power is truly crazy…
If Lotto can support him better in finishes he’ll win a lot of races.
He can also get over climbs better than most pure sprinters.
We’ll see, hopefully he gets a high profile win to bolster his confidence. Personally, I think he needs to swap teams, urgently.
I think he’ll be one of the most sort after riders in 2025, contract year. If I was a big team. I’d be buying out his contract and taking him for 2024.
Impressive by Van Der Poel. Was shocked Ganna and van aert couldn’t get together to bring it back.
Not sure I’ll do it again, but watched almost all of it on the trainer. In the spirit of the race, did 6 hours at 2.8w/kg, then 15 minutes at 5w/kg. Can’t say it’s the most fun I’ve ever had, but I’ve earned my beers today
In hindsight, MVP’s win makes complete sense….Strade was his first race back and then he used T-A for training with the goal of peaking for Holy Week. So him starting to come good today should have been obvious.
Wout has got to be developing a complex now….seems the only time he gets a big win is when MVP isn’t there or he has an issue. I think Wout is the better overall rider, but head-to-head, MVP always seems to have his number.
There are the obvious comparisons to Cancellara and typically that’s the kind of thing to take with a grain of salt. But he only has to get slightly better technically and it’s a very legitimate comparison. The fact that Pogacar and WVA couldn’t come over the top of him at the finish says a ton about the raw power he was still putting down
Absolutely. I think he could have probably contributed a lot more on the flat, but at that stage the race was won and he was already working to lock in a high podium finish.
It’s a shame as he probably won’t get many more shots to go for his own results with Pidcock and Van Baarle. Though MSR being the Italian race might help in getting him opportunities
He was never going to pull hard with van Aert and Pog on his wheel. Both have strong sprints so he probably didnt want to tow them up to vDP. The lead rider always has the upper hand as they can just go all in vs a group who all try to save a bit.
Great race. As always the last 30km is a great watch
As expected everyone was watching Pog and one of the ‘off form’ stars was able to counter attack and get a gap because he wasn’t the top favorite. Just not the one I picked.
Maybe more impressed by Ganna than MVDP today - think he overperformed his prior monument races significantly
Most surprising thing for me was the almost complete lack of moto assistance that MVDP received - seemed the descent was filmed almost entirely from the air and there was a significant effort by the organizers to not have motos impacting the finale in any way
INEOS have a few, Ben Turner and Josh Tarling look to have bright futures. Magnus Sheffield (American) is possibly better.
Im crossing my fingers Ganna uploads the file to Strava, sometimes he leaves power up too. It’ll be high 400’s as a guess. Hes capable of over 500 for the duration, but it is a really long race!
